Picking ‘dogs fine, but Jets a shaky play

Anyone who has followed my plays here this season (or elsewhere in previous seasons) knows I mostly play underdogs. And the bigger the better.

So, it might come as a shock to some that when glancing at the bold type below that the Jets aren’t there getting three touchdowns from the Patriots.

But another thing I preach is to get value and shop for the best number available, and in the case of the Jets-Pats game, that is long gone. The Jets were getting 25 points last Sunday and into Monday at some Las Vegas books, and I loved them at that number. When it was clear the line was coming down, I got plus-241/2 for my wallet and took the Jets plus-231/2 in the Hilton SuperContest (the same lines that my 10 colleagues use in the Review-Journal NFL Challenge).

With the news of the snowstorm hitting New England the other day and another storm on the way, the line moved faster than Bobby Petrino left Atlanta. As of Saturday night, it was at 21 all over town.

So, while I’ll be cheering for the Jets (and my money), I can’t go on record as recommending the Jets as a play anymore. Instead, I’ll go with five more plays at lines that people actually can bet (home teams in CAPS):

• Cardinals (+4) over SAINTS: Even with last week’s loss at Seattle, the Cardinals have been a great moneymaker for underdog bettors this season as they were 7-2 against the spread when getting points. Conversely, the Saints are 4-6 ATS as a favorite.

The Saints offense, which will be without Reggie Bush, doesn’t scare anyone. If Larry Fitzgerald was listed as questionable last week and had six catches for 79 yards and a touchdown, I can’t wait to see what he does this week against New Orleans’ 28th-ranked pass defense.

• Bills (+51/2) over BROWNS: This will have a playoff atmosphere. The Browns are a great story, but their defense allows a league-worst 389.7 yards per game. The Bills have the offense to keep up with Cleveland’s high-flying offense with running back Marshawn Lynch and quarterback Trent Edwards, who has led the Bills to two straight wins after taking over as the starting quarterback.

• Jaguars (+31/2) over STEELERS: The Steelers have been overrated most of this season, so I’ll take the points with the Jaguars, who have won four of their last five. The Jags are the league’s No. 2 running team, and quarterback David Garrard has been making all the right decisions (one interception in 274 attempts). Plus, Pittsburgh’s Ben Roethlisberger is at less than 100 percent.

• Lions (+10) over CHARGERS: The Chargers have underperformed and aren’t worthy of being double-digit favorites to anyone, especially a Detroit team that should have beaten the Cowboys last week. Besides, San Diego will be missing stud linebacker Shawne Merriman, and Philip Rivers is questionable.

• Eagles (+101/2) over COWBOYS: If the Cowboys thought the Lions played them tough last week, they better watch out for the Eagles, a division rival. The Eagles have been disappointing, so this is their Super Bowl. I played against the Eagles last week (they were favored, after all) when they lost 16-13 to the Giants, but I’ll back them here as a big ‘dog. Donovan McNabb is working off the rust, and he and Brian Westbrook should thrive against a Dallas defense that continues to get bailed out by the high-scoring offense.

Last week: 3-2 against the spread

Season: 36-33-1

Las Vegas-based handicapper Dave Tuley also writes for the Daily Racing Form and ViewFromVegas.com.