Bob and Joe, meet bull’s-eye

In theory, Nevada’s Democratic presidential caucus leads to such a spike in new voters that the donkeys turn the state blue and — all things being local — re-take the state Senate.

But a theory is just that until all the political forces play out. And if the two so-called “sitting duck” GOP senators have a say, they’ll both return to Carson City for another term.

State Sens. Joe Heck and Bob Beers are running scared, which to be sure is the only attitude a wise incumbent can have for re-election.

Meanwhile, Democrats are trying to scare up the kind of candidates who could actually make the first theory plausible.

Both Heck and Beers have retained the services of the estimable Robert Uithoven, the former congressional staffer for Jim Gibbons who successfully managed his Republican boss through a rocky end to last year’s gubernatorial race.

It’s one thing to get a Monday morning news release from one candidate, but when you get two from each of the guys in the hot seat, it’s a little more noticeable.

In order to “make news” on a Monday morning, Uithoven actually announced that Heck has already (a full year out) received a law enforcement endorsement. The message wasn’t just that Joe Heck was getting the nod from the Southern Nevada Conference of Police and Sheriffs, it was designed to show that the Henderson Republican is engaged and ready to take on whatever the Democrats throw at him in the 5th District.

Beers, for his part, has already been out stumping for himself, telling anyone who will listen that he and Heck have targets on their backs.

Last week, the forum was an appearance by presidential candidate Fred Thompson at Stoney’s, a local honky tonk so far south on the Strip it almost felt like you were in the country, save for the strip mall around it.

Beers had the honor of warming up the crowd, and he used it to remind voters that Republicans like him are trying to pick up seats in the Assembly at the same time they’re trying to fend off challenges to their own seats.

But the CPA who’s great with numbers didn’t share the campaign math with the good folks at Stoney’s, perhaps to avoid scaring off the two Republican Assembly candidates he introduced.

Because even if the registration data, caucus event attendance and polling suggested next year was going to be big for the GOP, it probably wouldn’t be big enough to give Democratic Assembly Speaker Barbara Buckley so much as even one more Republican to squeeze onto a committee in the lower house.

The way the math is working in the upper house, though, the Democrats need to retake just one seat to gain a majority — hence the buzz about Heck and Beers.

Beers has launched a re-election blog, and he lets us media types know whenever he’s posted something new. And now he’s got Uithoven sending out some of his famous numbers.

The Monday news release on behalf of Beers suggests that Nevada spends more per student than is commonly reported. In this voodoo economics sample, Beers cites 2004-05 school year data that ranked us 37th.

Beers anticipates a push back from folks he calls “educrats,” who will ask him to use more current data. “And indeed, Nevada ranks lower amongst states in expenditures classified this way,” he admits.

As in, the current information suggests Nevada ranks 49th.

Even if the mythical 37th ranking is accurate, Nevada is still worse than 36 states.

But never fear, as long as we’re using Beers math, we can simply poke fun at those who use bureaucratic math. Neither way is doing much to make the schools any better, but that’s not the kind of thing elections are won or lost on anymore.

If it’s not the simple math regarding which party has the largest amount of voters in the district, it all comes down to a battle for the nonpartisans. In Heck’s district there are 1,800 more Republicans than Democrats, but there are a whopping 17,800 nonpartisans. In Beers’ district, there are now just 1,500 more Republicans than Democrats, but those 7,200 nonpartisans are more likely to vote for a fiscal conservative than anyone with a “D” by their name.

Uithoven said Monday that he’s advising both the Heck and Beers campaigns to keep them on track and on message. “I think I’ll be playing similar roles in both campaigns,” Uithoven said. “They both have to run very well-disciplined campaigns. Every Republican knows what happened last cycle, and we know the possibility of it happening again.”

Anticipating a well-funded opponent is part of Uithoven’s strategy. As a result, both Heck and Beers are already in daily contact with advisers. “The Democrats have a tremendous opportunity in front of them,” Uithoven said.

You can expect to see a lot more from Heck and Beers in the next few months, even though they have no announced challengers — a good offense indeed.

Contact Erin Neff at eneff@reviewjournal.com or (702) 387-2906.