Falcons’ demise exaggerated
Once called the NFL’s most exciting player, Michael Vick has been exiled from the league. That might not mean the Atlanta Falcons are sentenced to a losing season, however.
Vick was not a big winner or a great quarterback before he pleaded guilty to dogfighting charges, handicapper Kelso Sturgeon said, so his absence could make a difference in a positive way.
“I guess I am among a handful of football bettors who did not attend the funeral for the Falcons after it was officially suggested Vick, the $130 million dogfighter, take a little R&R for the 2007 season,” said Sturgeon (kelsosportshandi-capping.com). “I did read the obituary, however, and was really confused by it.
“How anyone with a minimum amount of gray matter and just a basic understanding of football can write off Atlanta because Vick won’t be there is nothing short of mind-boggling. The other members of the team will be there, and that has to count for something.”
Sturgeon is counting on the Falcons to come through today as 3-point road underdogs to the Minnesota Vikings.
Joey Harrington has replaced Vick, who led Atlanta to a 7-9 record last season and an 8-8 mark the previous year.
“Vick is gone, and that means the Falcons also are gone? Armageddon is here. Woe is me,” Sturgeon said. “With all due respect, Vick was a very exciting player and a superb athlete but a very mediocre NFL quarterback.
“The jury may be out on Harrington, but my money says he will be a dramatic improvement over Vick.”
With Harrington under center, Sturgeon said Atlanta’s offensive linemen can expect the plays to be run as called, meaning they will be able to know where their quarterback is and protect him and carry out the blocking assignments that are designed to make it happen.
“Harrington is a much better NFL quarterback than Vick was, and it will show against the Vikings,” Sturgeon said. “As a committee of maybe just one, I believe Atlanta will be a better football team with Harrington calling the shots, and the Falcons could not have found a better place to open their season — against a Minnesota team that my figures say will be lucky to win five games this season.”
The Vikings are starting second-year quarterback Tarvaris Jackson, and Sturgeon ranks Minnesota’s wide receivers as the league’s worst group.
Sturgeon offers his opinions on the rest of today’s Week 1 lineup:
• Kansas City at Houston (-3): A little offense beats no offense almost every time. The Chiefs might be just as they looked in the preseason, and that was awful.
• Denver (-3) at Buffalo: This might be a breakout year for Bills quarterback J.P. Losman, but that will be trumped by a defense depleted by the departure of several key players.
The defense lacks the quality and depth to go the distance against any team with a decent offense, and the Broncos certainly have that.
• Pittsburgh (-5) at Cleveland: The Browns are not ready for prime time but have shown enough improvement to become a dangerous team. I don’t know if Cleveland can win this straight up, but the number is too high.
• Tennessee at Jacksonville (-7): The Jaguars remain a team of mystery to me, but the talent is there to be good, if the move to David Garrard at quarterback works out.
I also think you have seen the best of Titans QB Vince Young and that defenses now know him — similar to Vick — and will bury him this season.
• Carolina at St. Louis (-1): Why just minus-1? The Rams might have the NFC’s most explosive offense, and I saw nothing in the preseason that would suggest Carolina is going to bounce upward off last year’s 8-8 mark. My numbers say the Rams by a touchdown.
• Philadelphia (-3) at Green Bay: With Donovan McNabb healthy, the sky is the limit for this edition of the Eagles. Philly has the talent to crush the Packers, who have a decent but young defense.
The Packers also face the reality that Brett Favre, one of the great ones, no longer is a factor, can’t close like he used to and has no running game to help him.
• Miami at Washington (-3): How do you say dull? These teams have suspect offenses and little confidence in their quarterbacks to get it done.
Redskins coach Joe Gibbs is worth three points against Dolphins coach Cam Cameron.
• New England (-6 1/2) over New York Jets: Call this one the story behind the story. New England coach Bill Belichick is furious with what Jets coach Eric Mangini, a former assistant of his, has done in calling in several players cut by the Patriots, offering these guys a chance to make his team, but actually just pumping them for information before sending them out the door.
I would not want to take on any team coached by Belichick when he is so angry.
• Tampa Bay at Seattle (-6): Newly acquired QB Jeff Garcia is just what the doctor ordered to run Jon Gruden’s ball-control offense, and he might be just the thing the Bucs need to get back on track.
I was not impressed with the aging Seahawks in the preseason and question whether QB Matt Hasselbeck and running back Shaun Alexander are healthy enough to get it done.
• Chicago at San Diego (-6): My money says this is going to be a wide-open matchup of two gunslingers who can engineer a lot of points. Betting this over 42 is the totals play of the day.
• Detroit at Oakland (-2 1/2): The Lions went 3-13 last season, and the Raiders were 2-14. Both will be better this year, but at this stage of the game Detroit appears further into the process than Oakland, making taking the points the logical thing to do.
• New York Giants at Dallas (-6): The number is high, but everything indicates a dominating Dallas defense will keep a suspect Giants offense in check.
The Giants will find out how much retired running back Tiki Barber, who supplied 40 percent of the offense last season, meant to this team.
COMPILED BY REVIEW-JOURNAL SPORTS WRITER MATT YOUMANS
