Will Nevada matter?

Candidates like to describe some election victories as catching lightning in a bottle.

Sen. John McCain is using that analogy to describe his chances of winning today’s Republican presidential primary in New Hampshire, and Democrat John Edwards is hoping to capture the attention of voters just in time to edge out Sen. Hillary Clinton again.

But here in Nevada, where the Jan. 19 caucuses could have meant something in the Silver State and nationally, that lightning will indeed prove elusive.

It’s possible that Sen. Barack Obama will walk away with a double-digit victory tonight, scoring his second decisive win over the perceived Democratic front-runner in a state that was Clinton’s to lose. Should Obama prevail, it would seem that Nevada is merely the state that will seal the deal for him heading into Super, Giga, Mega, whatever-else-you-want-to-call-it Tuesday on Feb. 5.

Nevada Democrats have spent months organizing and training precinct chairmen and untold time luring national media, telling everyone their caucus will matter. But even with Nevada being moved into a compressed early state calendar, the state might not get a race. The Democratic caucus might be nothing more than a repeat of 2004, when state partisans let momentum suck them along in supporting Sen. John Kerry.

At this point, it’s hard to imagine Obama losing the Culinary union’s endorsement, which will be announced Wednesday. When Obama gets here for his post-New Hampshire campaign, it’ll be hard to find a seat anywhere he goes.

Ironically, the state Republican Party, which cobbled together a Jan. 19 presidential caucus of its own and has struggled to keep pace with Democrats all year, will get a race as wide open as the Nevada desert.

But once again, Nevada won’t catch the lightning.

Assuming McCain or Mitt Romney wins today and Rudy Giuliani again trails Rep. Ron Paul, the GOP nomination could still go to any of four or five candidates. The problem for Nevada is that none of the candidates has pledged to campaign here after New Hampshire.

Iowa winner Mike Huckabee doesn’t know Nevada exists. Romney, who has made the largest attempts to organize Nevada, has already had his “win in the West” moment in Wyoming.

All GOP eyes now will be on South Carolina, which has a Republican primary the same day as Nevada’s caucuses.

Fred Thompson left New Hampshire after a Republican debate Sunday night and headed straight for South Carolina, not Nevada. He’s hoping his overnight trip to Las Vegas last year will be enough.

Romney and Paul have earmarked the most resources for Nevada. Romney opened offices here and Paul has bought radio ads and mailers.

Given the polls showing Giuliani with a lead, Nevada might actually be the first state the former New York mayor could win. But he’s focused entirely on Feb. 5. His campaign Web site is soliciting funds in a “Drive 2 five” campaign. Lately, he’s been in Florida. Giuliani will skip Nevada in hopes of shoring up support in those big states.

It also, in hindsight, appears to be Clinton’s strategy.

“Iowa was always her toughest state,” said Clinton supporter Dina Titus, the state Senate minority leader and Democratic national committeewoman. “People should appreciate that it’s an early calendar, but also that you can’t rule anyone out until Super Tuesday.”

Titus thinks Clinton will fare better in Nevada because the caucuses are not as wide open as tonight’s primary in New Hampshire, where independents and Republicans can vote for Democrats. A Republican or independent voter would have to re-register as a Democrat prior to, or at, a Nevada caucus in order to vote for a Democrat.

While the Obama campaign heralds its 11 offices and New Hampshire primary-result-watching parties all over the state tonight, the one place it has been noticeably absent is at traditional party events. Obama spokeswoman Shannon Gilson told me that’s not the campaign’s focus.

If Obama is able to attract young and nontraditional voters here the way he did in Iowa, it may not matter if the other Democrats continue to campaign before party-sanctioned clubs.

Obama may be able to ride his early state momentum for a day or two of rest, fundraising and Super Tuesday focus before hitting the Silver State. Although the Culinary clearly won’t have time for a major mobilization, an Obama endorsement could still sway enough voters to end Edwards’ campaign and derail Clinton’s organization.

Despite the pronouncements that New Hampshire isn’t Iowa, and that Nevada isn’t like either of those early states, at some point you have to win somewhere to win the nomination. The Democrats will have their candidates here with the race nearly decided, and the Republicans will have a race without the candidates.

Yes, it’s hard to catch lightning.

Contact Erin Neff at eneff@reviewjournal.com or (702) 387-2906.