Favored filly won’t have easy Preakness

There are two chances of seeing a bid for the Triple Crown this year: slim and none. No one I know picked Mine That Bird to win the Kentucky Derby, and only a couple of redboarders after the race insist they liked him.

I read in the Baltimore Sun that Cal Ripken and friends attended the Kentucky Derby and scored out on Mine That Bird.

How did they do it? Ripken played baseball for the Baltimore Orioles, which is a bird. Jockey Calvin Borel has the same first name as Ripken. And Mine That Bird was the No. 8 horse, which was Ripken’s uniform number. That’s one way to come up with a 50-1 long shot.

Mine That Bird goes into the Preakness on Saturday as the only horse that can sweep the Derby, Preakness and Belmont Stakes. He’ll face 12 challengers, including exciting filly Rachel Alexandra, the 8-5 favorite leaving from extreme outside post 13.

New owner Jess Jackson paid $10 million for Rachel Alexandra after she won the Kentucky Oaks by 20 lengths. He admits to probably paying double her actual value, but still not much for a man worth an estimated $2.4 billion by Forbes.

“I hope she revitalizes horse racing,” Jackson said.

For my money, to revitalize the horse industry I wish Jackson had made a $10 million down payment to buy Santa Anita Park.

His heart is in the right place. However, when filly Rags to Riches won the 2007 Belmont Stakes, that didn’t improve the business.

It won’t be a horse that reverses the fortunes of racing; it will take a wise business plan with all parties buying in.

I’m probably in the minority in thinking Rachel Alexandra will be in for a tough go, especially after drawing post 13. In her last three wins, she beat overmatched fields of seven, five and six horses. Now she’ll face 12 males in the Preakness while wearing a bull’s-eye on her back.

If Rachel Alexandra wins at short odds, I won’t be upset, but she’ll beat me.

My pick is Pioneerof the Nile, who ran a game second in the Derby. I can see him improving in his second start over a real dirt track. The Bob Baffert colt has good tactical speed to sit a perfect trip.

Next, I’ll give Friesan Fire a second chance after an awful trip in the Derby. He is for forgiving handicappers only.

My third choice is Big Drama, the speed horse who drew the advantageous rail post. If left alone, he could spoil the party by leading wire to wire.

Richard Eng’s horse racing column is published Friday in the Las Vegas Review-Journal. He can be reached at rich_eng@hotmail.com.