Pletcher’s stable formidable, but fate always fickle at Derby

Todd Pletcher at last has figured out how to win the Kentucky Derby.

First you start a short-priced favorite in Wood Memorial winner Eskendereya. Then back him up with six or seven talented stablemates. Pletcher could start a third of the 20-horse Derby field, making his natural odds of winning the race about 1 in 3.

Pletcher has that many hopefuls, and most have the graded earnings necessary to make the field. But if anyone can understand the fickle fate of horse racing, it’s Pletcher. His 0-for-24 record in the Derby is one for futility on the sport’s brightest stage.

If Mine That Bird taught us anything in winning last year’s Derby, it’s that strange things can, and usually do, happen at Churchill Downs.

So, before you key Eskendereya on top of your Derby superfecta, at least watch the remaining prep races. Bear in mind the past eight Derby winners prepped in seven stakes. Only the Florida Derby has produced two in that time: Big Brown (2008) and Barbaro (2006).

On Saturday, the Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn and the Toyota Blue Grass at Keeneland could shed some light.

Noble’s Promise will be favored in the Arkansas Derby off his nose loss to Lookin At Lucky in the Rebel, also at Oaklawn. If there is an upsetter, I like the pair from D. Wayne Lukas in Dublin and Northern Giant. They run as an uncoupled entry, so I’ll probably bet more to win on the one with the higher odds.

In the Blue Grass, I like Make Music for Me, shipping in from Southern California. Horses really can grow up from ages 2 to 3. I liked what I saw in his comeback win in the Pasadena at Santa Anita. Make Music for Me should be a square price, too, 6-1 or higher.

■ GOMEZ’S MISTAKE — A lot has been said and written about Garrett Gomez’s ride on Lookin At Lucky in the Santa Anita Derby. To recap, Gomez tried to bull through on the rail and had to check sharply when tightened up by Victor Espinoza riding a hapless long shot.

One thing great riders have told me through the years is when they are riding the best horse, their goal is to stay out of trouble. A clean trip is more important than saving ground. Gomez allowed a rank outsider to control his destiny and not the other way around.

Richard Eng’s horse racing column is published Friday in the Las Vegas Review-Journal. He can be reached at rich_eng@hotmail.com.