Chess match to Packers: In final analysis, take hotter team to cover 2 1/2 vs. savvy Steelers
It’s a great day and a sad time all rolled into one.
We’re anticipating the Green Bay Packers and Pittsburgh Steelers will put on a spectacular show befitting the Super Bowl hype, but we also know that by 7 p.m. we’ll be bemoaning the fact that the next meaningful football game is seven months away.
With larger point spreads featured in recent Super Bowls, there was some heart-stopping drama. The question today, with a short number on the board, is whether the Packers and Steelers can deliver a thriller.
Since the spread was posted two weeks ago, Green Bay has been a 2½-point favorite, with the total resting on 44½ and 45. As expected, public money began to surface on the over, which has hit 45½ at some Las Vegas sports books.
At the South Point, the line bounced back and forth, on and off the key number of 3 throughout the weekend.
Books statewide are enjoying this matchup but paid dearly to get it. The Packers have been wagering favorites for the past month, giving bettors plenty of bullets to fire one last time.
As is always the case, there are countless subplots for the year’s marquee game.
Much of the focus is on the quarterbacks, Pittsburgh’s Ben Roethlisberger and Green Bay’s Aaron Rodgers, and other stars who will ultimately decide the issue.
But look for two coaches to have a major impact when the dust clears. Defensive coordinators Dick LeBeau (Steelers) and Dom Capers (Packers) will not only have their stalwart units prepped and ready to go, but it’s likely they also will have added dramatic input for their respective offenses.
LeBeau and Capers know each other all too well. Former Steelers coach Bill Cowher hired the duo in 1992, Capers as defensive coordinator and LeBeau as defensive backs coach.
They were instrumental in the installation of the zone blitz, which is the staple of many NFL defenses.
It stands to reason that they’ve been called upon to chip in on the offensive side of things, knowing each other’s tendencies in countless down-and-distance situations.
It could be a classic football chess match, featuring two of the league’s top defenses and their innovative gurus.
Who will blink first? The Packers likely feel they can win a shootout, while the Steelers love to hammer the ball on the ground and wear down the opposition.
That’s not to say Pittsburgh isn’t capable of opening things up. We’ve seen Roethlisberger do it before. He has the experience edge, but Rodgers has been on a tear. One of the many intriguing aspects of this game surrounds the mobility of these quarterbacks. Big plays are likely to be available despite the prowess of both defensive units.
Green Bay would love nothing more than to get Pittsburgh into a track meet. An up-tempo game could lead to costly turnovers and break the game open in terms of scoring.
The Steelers have been in this lofty position before and succeeded, but in terms of current form, Green Bay has earned a slight nod in my opinion. I’ll go with Green Bay, 30-27.
Here are more Super Bowl XLV opinions from sports book directors, oddsmakers, handicappers, a media member and a politician:
Mike Colbert, M Resort: Pittsburgh, 20-17
Jay Kornegay, Las Vegas Hilton: Green Bay, 23-17
Tony Miller, Golden Nugget: Green Bay, 34-21
Jay Rood, MGM Resorts: Pittsburgh, 19-13
Tony Sinisi, Las Vegas Sports Consultants: Pittsburgh, 24-20
Kenny White, former LVSC oddsmaker: Pittsburgh, 23-16
Brian Edwards, VegasInsider.com: Pittsburgh, 27-24
Andy Iskoe, Thelogicalapproach. com: Pittsburgh, 23-16
Kevin West, KVBC-TV (Channel 3): Pittsburgh, 30-17
Mayor Oscar Goodman: Green Bay, 28-24
Brian Blessing, host of Sportsbook Radio on ESPN (1100 AM, 98.9 FM), can be reached at blessproductions@yahoo.com.
