Healthy Beckett leaving Red Sox foes feeling ill
A back injury reduced Josh Beckett from ace to joker last year, so when the right-hander was scratched from a start this week, his health again became a concern for the Boston Red Sox. It’s looking like a minor setback, though.
Beckett has a stomach illness — maybe he just consumed too many of those cheap Jack in the Box tacos — and is expected to recover soon.
There is no reason for the Red Sox to worry, just as there was no reason to panic after their head-scratching 2-10 start. Beckett stopped that skid on April 16, when Boston’s turnaround began.
The Red Sox, after rebounding to 44-30, are rock solid with lefty Jon Lester and Beckett consistently pitching in while Adrian Gonzalez, David Ortiz and Kevin Youkilis produce runs and power.
“With Lester and Beckett at the top of their rotation, and that offense, the Red Sox are going to be tough to beat,” said Dave Cokin, ESPN Radio host and Las Vegas handicapper.
Boston has the best team in the American League, arguably the best in baseball, and appears primed to slowly pull away from the New York Yankees. That is assuming Beckett stays healthy and in top form.
He was a question mark after an injury-riddled 2010 season in which he won only six games and was rocked for a 5.78 ERA in 21 starts. Now, he is 6-2 with a major league-leading 1.86 ERA.
“I didn’t really know what to expect from Beckett. But if he’s healthy, he’s still one of the best pitchers in the game,” Cokin said. “It’s not like he’s throwing it up there at 85 mph and just hoping. He’s got really nasty stuff.”
Cokin bets mostly baseball underdogs and shops for value when prices get inflated because of starting pitchers. Beckett was a money burner last season, but he’s worth backing again in good spots on the road and sometimes on the runs line at home.
I’m not a frequent runs-line bettor, and neither is Cokin, but because of their prolific offense, the Red Sox are a team I have bet with success to cover 1½ runs behind Beckett and Lester.
Detroit’s Justin Verlander is taking over as the top starter in the majors, and his WHIP (Walks plus Hits per Innings Pitched) is a miniscule 0.85. A pitcher’s WHIP is a more accurate barometer of his performance than ERA, and Beckett’s WHIP is 0.92.
For researching pitchers and team trends, I recommend using DonBest.com (click on MLB Matchups).
Discarding aces such as Beckett and other obvious choices, here’s a look at a handful of under-the-radar pitchers who could offer value to bettors:
■ Philip Humber, White Sox: Picked up off waivers by Chicago, the right-hander is finally delivering on the potential that made him the Mets’ third overall pick in the 2004 draft, one spot behind Verlander. Humber, who has added a wicked slider, is 7-3 with a 2.90 ERA and 0.98 WHIP.
“The guy who has shocked me more than anything this year is Humber,” Cokin said.
■ Jake Arrieta, Orioles: A 6-foot-4-inch right-hander from Texas Christian, Arrieta (9-4, 4.50 ERA, 1.34 WHIP) is maturing along with lefty Zach Britton (6-5, 3.19, 1.25) for Baltimore.
“I like Britton, and I think he’s going to be OK,” Cokin said. “But I think Arrieta has got more upside.”
■ Jordan Zimmermann, Nationals: A second-round pick by Washington in 2007, Zimmermann (5-6, 3.08, 1.12) has been a warrior on the road with a 3-2 record and 1.04 WHIP. He has helped fill the void left by injured Stephen Strasburg.
“Zimmermann is the real thing,” Cokin said. “I like him a whole lot.”
■ Michael Pineda, Mariners: At 6-7 and 260, Pineda (7-4, 2.64, 1.03) measures up as a highly promising rookie.
Seattle has several strong arms and another to follow is 6-8 right-hander Doug Fister, who should not be judged by his 3-8 record. Fister has numbers (3.34 ERA, 1.21 WHIP) identical to those of ace Felix Hernandez, but Fister comes at a much cheaper price.
“Fister has established himself as a legit mid-rotation guy for the Mariners. I like the way he’s improving with the fastball,” Cokin said. “Fister keeps adding to his velocity, which is now averaging 2.2 (mph) higher than last season.”
If the Mariners fade from the AL West race next month, there is speculation they might deal Hernandez to the Yankees.
And the Yankees, who are patching together a respectable rotation, will need a helping hand in their pursuit of Beckett and the Red Sox.
Contact sports betting columnist Matt Youmans at myoumans@reviewjournal.com or 702-387-2907. He co-hosts the “Las Vegas Sportsline” weeknights at midnight on KDWN-AM (720) and thelasvegassportsline.com.
