Heller’s got a leg up, with a long way to go

First off, let’s settle the question of whether Rep. Dean Heller’s appointment to become a U.S. senator gives him a leg up in next year’s election.

Yes, it’s true that just less than half of all appointed senators lose their next election. Yes, it’s true appointed senators draw better-than-average challengers who are able to raise more money than somebody running against an elected incumbent. And yes, voters prefer candidates who actually ran for the office (mostly because voters get to know those candidates on the campaign trail). All true.

But ask yourself this: If Gov. Brian Sandoval had offered the job to Heller’s likely Democratic challenger, Rep. Shelley Berkley, would she have accepted? (Berkley was asked that question Thursday, but demurred.)

Answer: Of course she would have, because Berkley knows holding the job for more than a year before the primary election is a definite advantage in keeping the job for the subsequent six years.

Why? Consider two important factors. First, Heller will be able to raise more money as an incumbent U.S. senator than he would have been able to raise as a congressman, even a congressman running for an open seat. If he’s assigned to a committee that regulates moneyed industries (think defense contractors or telecommunications providers) he’ll be able to raise even more.

Second, Heller will now have a perfectly legitimate business excuse to visit Southern Nevada: He now represents us. Heller may have nowhere near the name recognition that Berkley now enjoys in Clark County, but that won’t be the case a year from now. Not only will local media want to chat with their new senator (who will undoubtedly enjoy a brief honeymoon, despite the obvious political backdrop), but local businesses and community groups will want to get to know him as well.

Berkley, by contrast, must leave her district — and her job — behind when she travels to Reno, Carson City, Elko, Ely, Fallon, Battle Mountain, Eureka and Tonopah. “She can’t play in our back yard,” is how one Heller insider puts it. But they can sure make themselves at home in Berkley’s.

It’s not to say Heller’s advantage means doom for Berkley. In fact, the dynamics of her race have changed very little. Berkley has always known she’d likely be running against Heller for Ensign’s Senate seat; she just suspected he’d have to wrestle the nomination away in a primary fight with Ensign.

But Berkley is no slouch when it comes to fundraising, either, and she will collect from all the usual sources. Plus, she’ll have help from U.S. Sen. Harry Reid, who’s welcome of Heller to the Senate — in print and in person — is not what one would describe as overly warm. Berkley will also benefit from the “Reid machine” that so flawlessly spirited him to victory in 2010 when everybody thought Reid was a dead man walking.

And let’s not forget President Barack Obama will be on the top of the ticket, bringing his organization and enthusiasm back to Nevada. While it’s true Republican voters will be energized by that February caucus, none of the GOP candidates on the field thus far look to inspire the base as much as Obama will inspire his. (A possible exception: Mitt Romney, whose support from the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints will turn out Mormon voters, who will also likely vote for Heller, a fellow church member.)

In short, Sandoval has taken the first step toward his goal of rebuilding the Nevada Republican Party from the dark days of Jim Gibbons and John Ensign, by bestowing on it a U.S. Senate candidate with the best chance to win of anybody.

Steve Sebelius is a Review-Journal political columnist, and author of the blog SlashPolitics.com. His column appears Sunday, Tuesday, Wednesday and Friday. Reach him at (702) 397-5276 or ssebelius@reviewjournal.com.