Hot Bills in danger of letdown
A month ago, little was expected from Ryan Fitzpatrick and the Buffalo Bills. But they have earned a lot of respect, and they did it the hard way.
The Bills (3-0) rallied from large halftime deficits to defeat Oakland and New England the past two weeks, rising atop the AFC East. The stunning victory over the Patriots was a statement game.
Their next game might be just as tough, however. The Bills are 3-point favorites at Cincinnati today, and the situation is more treacherous than the opponent.
“This is an incredible letdown spot for Buffalo,” said handicapper Andy Iskoe of VegasInsider.com and TheLogicalApproach.com. “It figures there should be a drop-off in the Bills’ level of play and intensity of play.
“Buffalo has played above expectations, but really only in the second half of their games. Both comebacks came at home, and it will be a different story on the road. I wouldn’t be surprised if this game ends up with a Cincinnati win.”
Fitzpatrick has nine touchdown passes, tied for second in the NFL, and the Bills rank third in total offense. But the Bengals, who hung tough while losing two of three, rank third in total defense while allowing only 276 yards per game.
“The Cincinnati defense could be able to frustrate Buffalo,” Iskoe said, “and I prefer going with defenses over offenses, especially when we’re talking about nonelite teams.”
Iskoe analyzes the rest of today’s Week 4 schedule:
■ Detroit at Dallas (-2½): Two of the Lions’ wins came on the road, but that’s reflected in the line. Back in the summer, Dallas was a 4½-point favorite in this game. I think the right line is Dallas by a field goal, and I lean to the Cowboys. Both teams will be looking to pass the ball, as Dallas ranks third and Detroit fourth in passing yards per game. My preference is over the total (46).
■ New Orleans (-7) at Jacksonville: The Jaguars have difficulty against elite teams. I don’t see their defense being able to contain Drew Brees and the Saints over 12 or 13 possessions. I like New Orleans, certainly at 6½ and even 7.
■ San Francisco at Philadelphia (-9): It’s obviously a good spot for the Eagles coming off last week’s loss. Philadelphia’s 1-2 record is not a total surprise considering it lost to pretty good teams in the Giants and Falcons. But I can’t make a case for the Eagles because of the high number. I have no strong opinion. I lean under the total (44) because the 49ers have done enough good things defensively. San Francisco ranks seventh in defense but 32nd in offense at 214 yards per game.
■ Washington (-2½) at St. Louis: I like the Rams in this spot. It’s a horse racing analogy in that it’s a drop in class for St. Louis, which has lost to Baltimore, Philadelphia and the Giants. I’m not sure the Redskins deserve to be road favorites. It’s a bad spot for them in a second straight road game and off a loss to a division rival.
■ Tennessee at Cleveland (Pick): I lean to the Browns. I like that running back Peyton Hillis is back for Cleveland, and Tennessee is without star wide receiver Kenny Britt. I played this under 39.
■ Minnesota (-2½) at Kansas City: There’s not much to choose from here between a pair of 0-3 teams. The Chiefs were held without a first down in the first half last week at San Diego, but they came out in the second half and made it a competitive game, and quarterback Matt Cassel looked more comfortable in the offense. The Vikings have to be discouraged by their failure to hold big halftime leads. It’s a hold-your-nose game that I might play weakly with Kansas City.
■ Carolina at Chicago (-6½): The Bears’ losses to Green Bay and New Orleans are understandable. I think their defense should be able to present some issues for Carolina rookie quarterback Cam Newton. The Panthers’ numbers are better on both sides of the ball. Chicago ranks 23rd in offense and 25th in defense. Carolina ranks seventh in offense and 17th in defense. But the Bears have played three playoff teams from last year and now face a team that was 2-14. This line was 11½ in the summer. I prefer to be on the Chicago side, but there are better plays out there.
■ Pittsburgh at Houston (-4): I like Pittsburgh getting points. Over the summer, the Steelers were 2½-point favorites here. Look at who the Texans beat — winless teams in Indianapolis and Miami. I like the Steelers’ defense and their ability to run the ball. Pittsburgh has the NFL’s No. 2 defense, allowing 263 yards per game, and is No. 1 against the pass, allowing 164 per game. The concern is that defense has created only one turnover.
■ Atlanta (-4½) at Seattle: The NFL is a quarterback league, and the Falcons have an obvious edge with Matt Ryan. Off a loss at Tampa Bay, this is a favorable spot for the Falcons. They should move the ball on Seattle, but even if they put up only 17 points that might be enough to cover. I like Atlanta, but not as a strong opinion.
■ New York Giants (-1) at Arizona: It’s a bad spot for the Giants coming off their huge emotional win at Philadelphia. I like to bet against NFC West teams in competitive games against above-average opponents. But this is basically a pass. If someone gave me $110 and said I had to make a play on this game, it would be the Giants.
■ Miami at San Diego (-7): Maybe it’s a desperation situation for Miami, and I lean that way, but I’m not sure we’re getting enough points to make it an enthusiastic play. There has to be an emotional hangover for the Dolphins after the way they lost last week at Cleveland. If I’m going to play this, I would rather be on the side against Chargers coach Norv Turner, who makes some baffling decisions. Tight end Antonio Gates is banged up, and that is a negative. But this San Diego team is too talented to keep struggling at this level of play.
■ Denver at Green Bay (-12½): It’s a tough number to lay with the Packers, although they are certainly capable of covering. I lean to taking the points with the Broncos, who have been competitive in all three games, and Kyle Orton is a competent quarterback. Green Bay’s run defense ranks No. 1, but its pass defense is 31st, allowing 359 yards per game.
■ New England (-5) at Oakland: I prefer to go with the Patriots to rebound after Tom Brady threw four interceptions against the Bills. I would suspect Bill Belichick has run an intense week of practice. I don’t know what to make of the Raiders. Maybe they are not as bad as I thought or maybe they caught teams in the right situation. Two weeks ago, this line was 9. I lean to New England and over the total (55), though you’re paying more of a price to bet the over.
■ New York Jets at Baltimore (-3½): Philosophically and fundamentally, these teams place a greater emphasis on defense. I like this under the total (42½), which is above a key number of 41. The Jets have played a lot of high-scoring games. Last year they went over 14 times and under five times, but of those 19 games, 11 were lined under 40. The total was 36 when these teams met last year, and Baltimore won 10-9 in the rain.
COMPILED BY MATT YOUMANS/REVIEW-JOURNAL
