Talented Tide might cover vs. Chiefs

When placing a bet, it’s always comforting to have the best quarterback on the field on your side. In this case, Alabama junior AJ McCarron is just that.

But the top-ranked Crimson Tide, who play at Louisiana State on Saturday night, might not own the edge at any other position. They do have the best coach by a large margin, however, and that makes it a more difficult game to handicap.

“I expect Alabama to win,” said Chris Andrews, an oddsmaker in Nevada for 30 years. “But I think it’s going to be a close game.”

Andrews was discussing the Alabama-LSU game. I was referring to a dream matchup between the Crimson Tide and Kansas City Chiefs.

The entertaining – and possibly ludicrous – debate over whether a powerhouse college team could compete with a pitiful NFL team was sparked this week by South Carolina’s Steve Spurrier, who also coached two mediocre Washington Redskins teams.

“Alabama, gosh, they look like they could beat a couple of those NFL teams that I’ve watched on Sundays,” Spurrier said on Dan Patrick’s radio show. “I think a lot of the oddsmakers out there, that usually know what’s going on, I’d guess Alabama would be favored by a little bit.”

Spurrier knows nothing about oddsmaking, of course, and we don’t know if he was being serious. But Andrews knows odds, and he made the Chiefs 24-point favorites over the Crimson Tide on a neutral field.

To be fair, that was before the Chiefs got crushed Thursday night by the mediocre San Diego Chargers. After that game, in which Kansas City quarterback Matt Cassel again showed his clumsiness, the line might have dropped a little.

But here’s the main point: Alabama is far superior to any college team it would line up against, and that shows in the line on Saturday’s game. LSU rarely loses in Death Valley, especially when a game kicks off after sunset, yet it is a 9-point underdog to the Crimson Tide, who will have the best quarterback, offensive line and defense on the field.

Eight of his players were selected in the most recent NFL Draft, with four going in the first round, and Nick Saban still is loaded with enough talent for Alabama to be mentioned with the greatest college football teams of all time.

The Crimson Tide finished 12-1
last season, winning the national championship by taming the Tigers 21-0 and allowing their offense to cross midfield only once. Saban outcoached LSU’s Les Miles so badly that even his critics felt embarrassed for him.

But is their third meeting in a year a mismatch? The Tigers did beat the Tide 9-6 in overtime in Tuscaloosa last year, when McCarron was learning to be a game manager. He’s much more than that now, because he’s the nation’s most efficient passer who has not thrown an interception in his past 262 attempts.

LSU still has a pedestrian offense, but Andrews took plus-10 with the Tigers because their defense is strong enough to keep them in the hunt at night in Death Valley.

“Alabama is as good as any team I’ve seen in a long, long time,” said Andrews, now a professional bettor and handicapper for Pregame.com. “But Alabama is not the blowout-type of team. Miles has had some success against them. I think LSU will keep it close.”

Andrews (@andrewssports on Twitter) power rated this week’s marquee matchups in the Southeastern Conference and Pac-12 each at 6 points. Oregon is an 8-point road favorite over Southern California. Two months ago, before the Trojans lost twice and senior quarterback Matt Barkley fell from the Heisman Trophy race, the Ducks opened as 3-point underdogs in this game.

“I don’t know if I’m quite ready to jump in and play Southern California. At 8, it’s a borderline play for me,” Andrews said. “I know USC has been a horrible disappointment, but if they jump up and win it won’t surprise me.”

In potential Bowl Championship Series title game matchups, Andrews has Alabama favored over Oregon (by 6), Kansas State (by 10) and Notre Dame (by 13). The dream title game for the sports books, the one sure to draw the most betting action, would be Alabama-Notre Dame.

I would like to see the Crimson Tide try to cover 24 against the Chiefs, and this might sound crazy, but I probably would side with Saban and McCarron over Romeo Crennel and Cassel.

It’s a fun debate, but as Andrews said, “We’ll never know for sure.”

■ CLOSING NUMBERS – It’s tempting to take the points with USC, but betting against Oregon is even more annoying than getting “Farmville” requests on Facebook. I decline all of those requests, and will pass on the Trojans.

I went 4-1 last week to run my record to 25-7 the past six weeks in this spot. Staying this hot is almost impossible, but here are five plays for Saturday (home team in CAPS):

Penn State (-3½) over PURDUE; LSU (+9) over Alabama; Pittsburgh (+17) over NOTRE DAME; UCLA (-3) over Arizona; New Mexico (+4) over UNLV.

Contact sports betting columnist Matt Youmans at myoumans@reviewjournal.com or 702-387-2907. He co-hosts “The Las Vegas Sportsline” weekdays at 2 p.m. on ESPN Radio (1100 AM, 98.9 FM). Follow him on Twitter: @mattyoumans247.