Disciplined Wildcats solid home favorites
November 2, 2012 - 11:08 pm
Unlike Alabama and Oregon, Kansas State football coach Bill Snyder does not have a roster loaded with blue-chip recruits and future NFL stars. However, just like the Crimson Tide and Ducks, the Wildcats are sporting a perfect November record.
Snyder is getting it done with great quarterback play from Collin Klein and a disciplined team that avoids mistakes. The Wildcats have the nation’s fifth-best turnover margin, producing 19 takeaways while committing four turnovers.
Kansas State is ranked fifth in the nation in scoring at 44.4 points per game. The Wildcats have a salty defense, too, ranking 13th in the nation in scoring defense by allowing 17.1 points.
Klein has put up Heisman Trophy-type numbers, rushing for 634 yards and 16 touchdowns. He has completed 70.9 percent of his passes for 1,630 yards with a 12-2 TD-to-interception ratio.
The Wildcats, 4-1 against the spread at home, have dealt woodshed treatment in back-to-back weeks. They went to Morgantown and pounded West Virginia 55-14 before returning home to trounce Texas Tech, 55-24.
Showing no signs of slowing, Kansas State is poised to stay perfect while hosting Oklahoma State today in Manhattan.
Cowboys coach Mike Gundy has a team that looks completely different on the road. Oklahoma State got blasted at Arizona and barely escaped Kansas with a 20-14 win.
Expect the Wildcats, 9-point favorites, to win by double digits.
Three more plays for today (home team in CAPS):
■ Penn State (-3½) over PURDUE – The Nittany Lions have been dynamite on the road, going 3-0 ATS. They smashed Illinois 35-7 and routed Iowa, 38-14. Bill O’Brien has done a remarkable coaching job by turning Matt McGloin into one of the Big Ten’s best quarterbacks.
The Boilermakers turned in their best effort of the season two weeks ago at Ohio State, but they came up short of the upset in overtime. The thinking here is that they left everything on the field in Columbus.
■ Pittsburgh (+17) over NOTRE DAME – This is a classic letdown situation for the Fighting Irish after their biggest win in years last week at Oklahoma. Notre Dame is 8-0 but has won by more than 17 points only twice. These teams met in each of the past four seasons, splitting those games straight up with all of them decided by six points or less.
Panthers quarterback Tino Suseri has been outstanding, completing 69.2 percent of his passes for 2,199 yards and a 13-2 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Ray Graham is one of the country’s best running backs, rushing for 622 yards and seven TDs.
I made Notre Dame a 12-point favorite, so I’m confident the value is with the double-digit ‘dog.
■ CINCINNATI (-4½) over Syracuse – This number is too low. I made the Bearcats, losers of back-to-back road games, 9-point favorites against the Orange. Cincinnati easily could have won in losses at Toledo and Louisville, both one-possession games.
The Bearcats are 5-0 straight up at home, winning four of those games by 16 points or more.
Last week: 2-2 against the spread
Season: 28-12
Brian Edwards of VegasInsider.com and BrianEdwardsSports.com is providing college football analysis for the Las Vegas Review-Journal.