Exaggerator, Nyquist worth watching in Kentucky Derby
For the 20 horses running in the Kentucky Derby on Saturday, they will have a tough act to follow. Last year, American Pharoah won the Derby, Preakness and Belmont Stakes to become the first Triple Crown champion since Affirmed in 1978.
To think that one of these 20 is cut from the same cloth is asking a lot. Let’s get the first leg in Saturday. Then we can focus on one horse — the Derby winner.
There is a trend developing in the past four Derbies. Three of the winners were based out of Southern California: I’ll Have Another (2012), California Chrome (2014) and American Pharoah (2015).
This isn’t by accident. The three trainers — Doug O’Neill, Art Sherman and Bob Baffert — paid their dues and learned their craft well.
The great weather and strong competition develops a colt’s maturity so it can ship anywhere in the country and win.
With that in mind, I’ll start with my top two horses, based in Southern California, that are nearly interchangeable: Exaggerator and Nyquist.
Exaggerator (8-1) is the better price and my top choice, so I will start with him. His trainer, Keith Desormeaux, uses his Hall of Fame brother, Kent, to ride.
They fear no one, as exemplified by shipping to New York to win the Saratoga Special in August. After two good races at Keeneland last fall, they went to Louisiana and won the $1 million Delta Downs Jackpot.
Exaggerator seemed stuck on neutral this spring with losses in the San Vicente and San Felipe. But he exploded on an off-track to win the Santa Anita Derby. It is the fastest last race Beyer speed figure among the Derby starters.
Next is the 2-year-old champion, Nyquist (3-1). Undefeated in seven lifetime starts, he shipped out twice to win the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile at Keeneland and the Florida Derby at Gulfstream Park. The last win was like Notre Dame going to Tuscaloosa to beat Alabama. You just don’t normally see that.
Nyquist has tactical speed, so whether the Derby pace is fast or slow, jockey Mario Gutierrez can measure the colt and sit exactly where he wants to.
Creator (10-1) is a good example of a late-blooming colt developing right before our eyes. It took him six maiden races to graduate, but when he did, he won with complete authority.
His next two races, both at Oaklawn Park, were a third in the Rebel and a big win in the Arkansas Derby. Each time he showed enormous improvement. Creator is among 12 horses that prefer to close late, so those in the cavalry charge will need some racing luck.
Mor Spirit (12-1) is also Southern California based for trainer Bob Baffert. He ran second to Exaggerator in the sloppy Santa Anita Derby, but I thought I saw a real positive.
Mor Spirit appeared to hate the wet conditions but kept on trying. He ran second on class and grit alone, and that could bode well for a solid Derby run.
The last horse I’ll mention is Mohaymen (10-1). He was the Derby favorite before the Florida Derby, then got skunked by Nyquist. He has trained fantastic lately, and his price is right for a rebound.
ENG’S DERBY PICKS: Exaggerator, Nyquist, Creator, Mor Spirit, Mohaymen.
Richard Eng’s horse racing column is published Friday in the Las Vegas Review-Journal. You can get his Santa Anita picks by emailing him at rich_eng@hotmail.com. Follow him on Twitter: @richeng4propick
