Derek Carr, Raiders trending upward
At the time the pick was made, the Oakland Raiders were roundly applauded, something that rarely happens. It was two years ago, and getting quarterback Derek Carr early in the second round of the NFL Draft seemed a potential steal.
And it has turned out to be a good deal for the Raiders. Carr has started all 32 games in his career, passing for 53 touchdowns with 25 interceptions. He has yet to lead the team to the playoffs, but those things take time.
The Raiders should be ready to seriously contend by the time they relocate to Las Vegas — and I’m only half joking. The contending part could happen this year.
Oddsmakers are optimistic about Oakland’s immediate future. When the league announced the 2016 schedule Thursday, and betting lines were posted on Week 1 games, the Raiders opened as 1½-point underdogs at New Orleans. The number — now down to 1 — looks low but might be saying something.
“I’m pretty sure the Raiders are going to be a trendy team this year,” Westgate sports book manager Ed Salmons said. “I feel like the wiseguys will be on Oakland in that game. The Saints are a bad team, and a lot of people want to stick with that Superdome nonsense. I think the Raiders will probably go off as the favorite in the game.”
The Saints have Drew Brees, who’s still an elite quarterback, and coach Sean Payton, but they also have problems such as a defense that ranked 31st in the league last season. New Orleans finished 7-9, including 4-4 at home.
As for the Superdome being a fortress, that is now folly. The Saints are 7-9 in their past 16 home games. Still, the Raiders are not known as road warriors, so it makes for one of the most interesting matchups of the season’s first Sunday.
Carr had a few poor performances last year, yet he passed for 32 touchdowns and won seven games. Oakland has drafted well and its defense is trending upward under coach Jack Del Rio.
Salmons was among four Westgate oddsmakers debating the lines. Three made the Saints slight favorites, and one favored the Raiders by 2½. They hashed out their differences and made New Orleans minus-1½. It was a quick process, and nowhere near as unpleasant as seeing how sausage is made.
Here’s a look at the rest of the Week 1 lineup:
■ Carolina at Denver (-2): Expect a revenge-minded Cam Newton, who was sacked six times in the Panthers’ 24-10 loss in Super Bowl 50. As of now, Mark Sanchez will be the Broncos’ new starting quarterback, though a trade with San Francisco for Colin Kaepernick might materialize. The line opened at 3 and might go lower by kickoff on Sept. 8.
“It will be Sanchez, and he’ll be fine. Even if the Broncos get Kaepernick, I think Sanchez will beat him out,” said Micah Roberts, a handicapper for “The Linemakers” on SportingNews.com. “I see Cam stepping up big time because he wants to make a statement. I think Carolina is going to win outright.”
■ Tampa Bay at Atlanta (-3½): As a rookie, Jameis Winston’s first pro pass was intercepted and returned for a touchdown in a 42-14 loss to Tennessee. Winston made steady improvement throughout the season, and he helped the Buccaneers beat the Falcons twice.
■ Minnesota (-3) at Tennessee: The Titans picked up DeMarco Murray, who was a bust in Philadelphia last season after leading the league in rushing for Dallas in 2014. With a franchise quarterback in Marcus Mariota, Tennessee was able to trade the No. 1 pick in the April 28 draft to Los Angeles. The Vikings, a playoff team with a stronger defense, deserve to be road favorites by a field goal.
■ Cleveland at Philadelphia (-7½): By switching to coach Hue Jackson and signing quarterback Robert Griffin III, the Browns like their chances. Salmons remains pessimistic. This line looks a little high, but who’s rushing to the window to bet on Cleveland?
“To me, Cleveland is the worst team in the league until we see otherwise,” Salmons said. “I’m not buying the Griffin nonsense. There’s nothing I see positive out of Cleveland.”
■ Cincinnati (-1) at N.Y. Jets: The line moved one point in favor of the Bengals, who are off a 12-win season that ended with an ugly playoff loss. The Jets are uncertain if Ryan Fitzpatrick will be their quarterback.
■ San Diego at Kansas City (-7½): The Chiefs opened last season 1-5 and finished 11-5. Their improbable win streak included a 10-3 victory over the Chargers at Arrowhead Stadium in December.
■ Buffalo at Baltimore (-3): In the second year of coach Rex Ryan’s era, the Bills need less rhetoric and better results. Oddsmakers rate these teams even on paper, so with the Ravens’ home-field advantage, this line takes about three seconds to make.
■ Chicago at Houston (-5): The Bears went 5-3 on the road in a six-win season. The Texans hope they finally have a franchise quarterback after overpaying for Brock Osweiler and swiping him from Denver. In the 2014 draft, Houston took defensive end Jadeveon Clowney No. 1, and he has been a clown. Carr went 36th overall to the Raiders.
■ Green Bay (-4) at Jacksonville: Blake Bortles, the No. 3 pick in 2014, passed for 35 touchdowns last season as the Jaguars won four home games and finished 5-11. Are you betting on Bortles or Aaron Rodgers? A little early action showed on the Packers. The Westgate’s four oddsmakers had line variances on this game ranging from 3 to 6.
“This is a tough one,” Salmons said. “The public is going to bet the crap out of Green Bay, and I think the wiseguys will be on Jacksonville this year.”
■ Miami at Seattle (-7½): The favorite will be a wildly popular play on teasers in Week 1. The Seahawks were dealing with a lot of drama last summer. This time, coach Pete Carroll will be riding a team that looks like Super Bowl contender out of the gate.
■ N.Y. Giants at Dallas (-4): These teams met in season openers in Dallas in 2013 and 2015, with the Cowboys winning 36-31 and 27-26. I was looking to play the ’dog at the opener of 5½, but the sharp money showed up immediately.
■ Detroit at Indianapolis (-5): Not every matchup is intriguing. If there is a surprise here, it’s that both coaches are returning. Chuck Pagano survived the cut with the Colts, and Jim Caldwell is back with the Lions.
■ New England at Arizona (Pick): The Westgate oddsmakers were in agreement on this line. It’s a long shot, but a chance exists that Patriots quarterback Tom Brady still could be suspended by the NFL. If not, look for New England to go off as a slight favorite.
■ Pittsburgh (-3) at Washington: Barring an injury to Ben Roethlisberger, bookmakers know public money will be on the Steelers and over the total of 51 in this first Monday night game. The line opened at 2½.
■ Los Angeles (-2) at San Francisco: The Rams will take a quarterback, either Jared Goff or Carson Wentz, with the top draft pick. The 49ers are likely to open the Chip Kelly era with Blaine Gabbert at quarterback.
Las Vegas Review-Journal sports betting columnist Matt Youmans can be reached at myoumans@reviewjournal.com or 702-387-2907. He co-hosts “The Las Vegas Sportsline” weekdays at 2 p.m. on ESPN Radio (1100 AM). Follow on Twitter: @mattyoumans247
