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Logano on pole has good shot at Martinsville

Joey Logano has never won at Martinsville Speedway’s flat half-mile layout, but he’s got a couple of things in his favor that make him a good candidate to win Sunday’s STP 500. Between being on the pole, not having Jeff Gordon to contend with and hardened from a tough lesson learned last fall, his first grandfather clock is within reach more than ever.

This will be Logano’s third straight Martinsville, Virginia, race starting from the pole and while it hasn’t led him to a win yet, historically, track position has meant the most there. Of the 134 races run since 1948, 21 of the winners have started from the pole — get out front, stay out front and also out of trouble.

Last season, Logano led 108 laps and finished third — his third straight top-five there. In the fall, he was leading in a dominant car with 47 laps to go when a lapped Matt Kenseth torpedoed Logano’s car as a measure of retaliation for a controversial racing move by Logano on Kenseth at Kansas two weeks earlier. Kenseth’s championship hopes were ruined at Kansas, and so too was Logano’s after the retaliation.

The takeaway from the altercation is that Logano led a race-high 207 laps, which made him the overall lap leader at Martinsville in 2015, despite the 37th-place finish. No win, but he had the best car and now with him starting out front again, he should be considered the favorite.

His chances to win are even better than last season because one of the best Martinsville drivers of all-time, Jeff Gordon, has retired. Gordon won nine times there over his career, including scooping up the win in the aftermath of Logano’s misfortune last fall. With less elite competition, Logano’s main competition now comes down to just two drivers — Denny Hamlin and Jimmie Johnson.

FORD DROUGHT

Should Logano win, he’d be the first Ford driver to do so since a young Kurt Busch did it in 2002. Since then 20 of the 26 races have been won by Chevrolet, including nine of the past 10. The main party crasher for Chevy has been Hamlin’s five wins for Toyota. Incidentally, Busch’s 2002 win from the 36th position is the furthest back a winner has ever started.

HENDRICK EXPECTS TO WIN

Recent Chevy domination at Martinsville has been aided mostly by Hendrick Motorsports, which has used three different drivers to win five of the past seven races there. They just know how to set up a car for the track better than most teams. So when you see a driver like Kasey Kahne who has struggled most of the year look almost as good as Johnson and Dale Earnhardt Jr. in practice, he should be taken seriously despite a less than impressive resume over his career on the short track. Kahne was 40-to-1 before odds updated after final practice. Johnson, looking for his ninth grandfather clock, had the best 10-consecutive lap average during Saturday’s final practice.

LONGSHOT VICKERS IMPRESSIVE

Brian Vickers was 100-1 before practices, but that number will be chopped considerably with one of the best cars in the field. Driving Tony Stewart’s No. 14 Chevrolet, he looked better than teammates Kevin Harvick and Kurt Busch in all three practices and qualifying. The No. 14 performance has been well below Harvick and Busch all season until now. Vickers had the fastest lap in Friday’s practice, then qualified third, and in Saturday’s final practices he was was fourth and third respectively, including the best 10-consecutive lap average in the early session. His best career finish at Martinsville was sixth in 2010, but he has plenty of value this week at adjusted odds of 40-1 or higher and also should be a good play in driver vs. driver match-ups.

Micah Roberts, a former Las Vegas sports book director, has been setting NASCAR odds since 1994. Follow him @MicahRoberts7

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