Las Vegas set to party with NCAA Tournament
Anyone who has experienced Mardi Gras probably has a hazy memory of it. What is about to happen in Las Vegas this week is similar, a party that starts Thursday morning and continues all weekend, and it’s a celebration of the most entertaining event in the world of sports.
The NCAA Tournament is a college basketball betting circus, a blur of action played out on the big screens in standing-room-only sports books all over town.
“I don’t think there’s anything like it,” Wynn sports book director John Avello said. “This first week is just game after game after game, and the customers absolutely eat it up.”
It’s a supersized version of the Super Bowl. Instead of one big game, this is an unpredictable 67-game tournament staged over three weeks. A total of 32 games tip off Thursday and Friday with another wild 48 hours to follow.
“If you’re a college basketball fan, it’s better than the Super Bowl because there is a lot more action,” said Jay Rood, sports book director for MGM Resorts. “There is way more passion involved. As an event, there’s nothing else that can compare to it.”
It means big business, and not just for the bookmakers. It’s a long, profitable weekend for a variety of workers on the Strip, from cab drivers to cocktail waitresses to, of course, strippers. But for bookmakers, this event as a whole will surpass what happened on the first Sunday of February, when a record $132.5 million was wagered in Nevada on Super Bowl 50.
“The state’s handle would probably fall between $130 million to $150 million for the entire NCAA Tournament,” Rood said.
According to a 2015 survey by the American Gaming Association, nearly 40 million Americans filled out NCAA Tournament brackets. Your little office pool contributed to an estimated $2 billion in bracket bets, and wagers for all of March Madness were estimated at $9 billion — more than double of the estimated wagers on the Super Bowl.
So study the bracket, grab a pencil with an eraser, and join the party.
Try to visit a sports book later in the week, too, because the zoo of madness is a spectacle worth witnessing.
WHERE ARE THE UPSETS?
Sports betting is an intellectual challenge, and nothing is more challenging than finding the upsets that will stun the public in the first round. Kansas is the king of the 68-team field as the No. 1 overall seed. The other top seeds are North Carolina, Oregon and Virginia.
When lines opened Sunday night on the first-round matchups, the Jayhawks were made the biggest favorites, laying 26 points against Austin Peay. In the tournament’s history, no top seed has lost to a No. 16 seed, though there have been a handful of close calls.
After studying the bracket and assessing what is supposed to be a wide-open field, Avello said, “I don’t know if we’re going to get a 16 seed beating a 1 seed this year.”
But we probably will see another high-seeded team tumble. West Virginia, the No. 3 seed in the East Region, is favored by only 7½ points over Stephen F. Austin. California, seeded No. 4 in the South, is a 6½-point favorite over Hawaii. Iowa State, No. 4 in the Midwest, is a 7½-point favorite over Iona.
Mountain West tournament champion Fresno State is a candidate to pull off another stunner. The Bulldogs, who upset San Diego State on Saturday at the Thomas & Mack Center, are 8½-point underdogs against Utah, the No. 3 seed in the Midwest.
Ken Thomson, a Las Vegas radio host and handicapper, said he likes Northern Iowa as a potential giant killer. The Panthers, the 11th-seeded team in the West, are 4½-point ’dogs against No. 6 seed Texas.
Thomson (SportsXradio.com) said one of his best bets of the first round is Seton Hall as a 2-point ’dog against Gonzaga. The Zags, who won the West Coast Conference tournament at Orleans Arena last week, drew a No. 11 seed.
“I don’t think Gonzaga should be favored,” Thomson said.
The Duke haters, and there are plenty of them out there, will like to hear Avello say the Blue Devils, seeded No. 4 in the West, are vulnerable as 9-point favorites against North Carolina-Wilmington.
“It looks like an easy game,” Avello said, “but the way Duke is going, I’m not sure anything is easy.”
Oddsmakers are saying Baylor, the No. 5 seed in West, could be in trouble against Ivy League champion Yale. The Bears are favored by a slim 5½ points.
WHO’S THE WINNER?
I’ll argue that Michigan State is led by the nation’s best player, senior guard Denzel Valentine, and we all know coach Tom Izzo is typically a safe bet to reach the Final Four. But the Spartans, the Big Ten tournament champs, were stuck with a No. 2 seed in the Midwest.
“That’s surprising because Michigan State is the favorite on my board,” said Rood, who actually has the Spartans and Kansas as co-favorites to win the NCAA championship at 4-1 odds.
Thomson is counting on chalk to prevail, saying, “I definitely have Kansas in the Final Four. Look at the left side of the bracket. The winner of Kansas-Oregon is who I’m picking to win it all.”
It’s time to pick up a pencil and start filling out my bracket. When I’m finished, the team I picked to win it in November will be the team I pick to win on April 4, and that’s Kansas. My money is on Bill Self, a coach who has been known to work some magic in March.
But this event is not all about who wins it. Enjoy the upsets along the way. Betting on this tournament is not only big business, it’s risky business.
Las Vegas Review-Journal sports betting columnist Matt Youmans can be reached at myoumans@reviewjournal.com or 702-387-2907. He co-hosts “The Las Vegas Sportsline” weekdays at 2 p.m. on ESPN Radio (1100 AM). Follow him on Twitter: @mattyoumans247
