Fool’s gold: Betting on Tiger
It was funny for a while — and some of his critics might never stop laughing — but now it’s just a bad joke. Tiger Woods‘ struggles on the golf course are getting old. It‘s tough to watch him and tough to listen to him.
Woods arrived in Scotland this week saying he was seeing improvement and expecting to compete in the British Open. And some analysts, bettors and oddsmakers were buying it.
But we know what happens to a fool and his money. If you bet on Woods, you are preparing to part with some money and probably feeling foolish.
"Tiger‘s going home," said Jeff Sherman, Westgate Las Vegas golf oddsmaker. "He went out on the early side of the draw and shot one of the poorer rounds. If he could not take advantage of those conditions, I don‘t think he‘s going to make the cut."
For most of the past year, Woods‘ poor play was comical. We all got a good laugh. Now, though, it‘s getting somewhat sad to see one of the greatest players in the history of the game turn into a hack. His fall from grace, on and off the course, is stunning.
It has been seven years since Woods won a major, and plenty of smart people are betting he never will win another one. Halfway through his first round, it was obvious he‘s not winning this one.
About two hours past midnight Thursday on the West Coast, Tiger teed it up at the St. Andrews Old Course and made a mess of the first hole en route to a bogey. He shot a 4-over-par 76, tying him for 139th in a field of 156. He was fortunate to play in the morning, when there was less wind off the North Sea and warmer temperatures, but still flopped.
The critics were shredding him with sharp words. ESPN analyst Paul Azinger called Woods "a middle-of-the-pack hack." That is only half true, because he‘s in the back of the pack.
Sherman posted adjusted odds Thursday afternoon at the Westgate sports book and made Woods 500-1. He went into the tournament at 30-1 and ranked sixth among players in ticket count at the Westgate. There are fools out there.
Dustin Johnson, who fired a 7-under 65 to seize the first-round lead, and Jordan Spieth, two shots back, are 7-2 co-favorites. Johnson and Spieth dueled to the finish in the U.S. Open and picked up where they left off.
"I like the way D.J. played," said golf handicapper Wes Reynolds (@WesReynolds1 on Twitter). "I don’t think D.J. is going to collapse yet. He doesn‘t do his collapses until Sunday."
Reynolds made his biggest bet on Johnson at 12-1 odds, and so did I. Johnson hits bombs off the tee and drives it over the pot bunkers at St. Andrews. His approach shots were on target, and he was good with the putter. He seems to have shaken off his mental meltdown on the 18th green at the U.S. Open.
Spieth, winner of the season’s first two majors and posted at 20-1 odds to win the Grand Slam, was typically steady and should be on the leaderboard all weekend. Johnson and Spieth played together in the morning in better weather. Unlike Tiger, they took advantage. Consistent winds and morning rain are in the forecast for Friday.
"Because of the weather conditions, there are so many things that could happen, and it makes it hard to handicap," Sherman said. "It can go awry fast. There‘s going to be a lot of movement on the leaderboard the next two days."
A six-way tie for second includes Robert Streb, Retief Goosen, Paul Lawrie, Jason Day, Danny Willett and Zach Johnson, whom I bet at 80-1 as my only long shot. Day‘s adjusted odds are 9-1, and Johnson is 15-1.
"Zach Johnson shooting as well as he did kind of surprised me," Reynolds said. "All week he said, ‘I usually don‘t play well over here.‘ Zach was out in the tougher conditions, as well."
The players who went off in the morning had a scoring average of 71.5, while players in the afternoon averaged 73, according to Reynolds.
"Some of the guys who shot low, you‘re not sure it’s going to hold up," Reynolds said. "It‘s hard to say the really big names are going to fall back. But the weather can change everything."
The British Open is always unpredictable, and a player seven shots off the lead is not out of it after one round. Rickie Fowler is one of those trailing by seven. Off a Scottish Open win, he closed at 15-1 and has been adjusted to 50-1.
"If somebody is looking for a value play, that‘s not bad," Reynolds said. "Fowler has proven he can play in this weather. I might jump in on him at that price. There is some value if people didn’t get involved too much pre-tournament."
Reynolds said he also will look at Phil Mickelson, five shots back and posted at 40-1, as another long-shot prayer.
The Westgate‘s handle on the tournament, Sherman said, is surprisingly strong and almost matching the U.S. Open handle. With last year’s champion, Rory McIlroy, injured and out, Spieth attracted 35 percent of the play on the futures board, including a wager of $8,000 at 6-1 odds.
"Our largest liability is Spieth," Sherman said.
So far, the biggest loser is Tiger. Things could change, and he could play with his hair on fire and shoot in the mid-60s in the second round, but only a fool is counting on that. Tiger turns 40 this year, and most of his hair already has fallen out.
Las Vegas Review-Journal sports betting columnist Matt Youmans can be reached at myoumans@reviewjournal.com or 702-387-2907. He co-hosts "The Las Vegas Sportsline" weekdays at 2 p.m. on ESPN Radio (1100 AM). Follow him on Twitter: @mattyoumans247.
