NFL Betting: Bad-beat bug bites Steelers, Patriots
With four touchdown passes in his pocket, Russell Wilson was not done dealing. Whether sitting at the poker table or standing in a dark corner of the sports book, never count your money until the dealing is done.
Wilson just might hit Doug Baldwin for an 80-yard touchdown pass on third-and-10 with two minutes remaining to steal your money. Of course that’s what happened, because on this Sunday the ball was bouncing the way of the bookmakers.
Wilson’s career-high fifth touchdown was the low point of the day for bettors on the Pittsburgh Steelers, who found a stunning way to lose and fail to cover in a 39-30 loss at Seattle.
“The last bomb from Wilson to Baldwin was a much better result for us,” Westgate Las Vegas sports book director Jay Kornegay said. “That was an unbelievable cover. That last touchdown was a pretty big swing for us.”
In the big picture, it was the biggest play of the day — at once resuscitating the Seahawks’ playoff hopes while dealing a death blow to underdog bettors — until C.J. Anderson sprinted 48 yards through the snow in overtime as the Denver Broncos spoiled the New England Patriots’ run of perfection.
Kenny Rogers did not sing about betting on NFL games, but football and poker both deal bad beats. The Patriots, who had won 47 consecutive games when leading by 14 points or more in the fourth quarter, were given a 97.4 percent chance of winning early in the fourth, according to ESPN Stats & Info.
The Steelers were popular ‘dogs, opening at plus-4 and closing at plus-3, and they trailed by two points with two timeouts in their pocket as time wound down. Baldwin ran a crossing route, Wilson hit him in stride and Baldwin broke two weak tackle attempts before racing for the end zone and the Seahawks’ so-called unbelievable cover.
“That helped us, that’s for sure,” MGM Resorts book director Jay Rood said. “All of the large plays were on the Steelers.”
Rood reported “pretty lopsided” action on Pittsburgh at a 4-to-1 ratio of dollars wagered, and for a majority of the game, the money on the Steelers seemed well placed.
Ben Roethlisberger passed for 456 yards and showed why the Steelers, on their best day, are capable of putting a scare into Denver and New England on the AFC side of things. But when Roethlisberger goes to the sideline, as he did late in the game to be checked for a concussion, Pittsburgh is close to hopeless.
The Steelers were a right-side, wrong-result bet, but most of the major decisions in Week 12 were pretty clearly defined. It started on Thanksgiving, when Detroit, Carolina and Chicago deservedly cashed tickets.
The New York Jets, bet from 3½- to 4½-point favorites, dealt the bookmakers their only big loss by dominating the Miami Dolphins 38-20. The Jets were a late steam play.
“The Buccaneers were an early steam play by the sharps,” Rood said.
But the Bucs were stopped in a 25-12 loss at Indianapolis, a 3-point favorite. The Colts are 4-0 with 40-year-old Matt Hasselbeck starting at quarterback and 2-5 with young buck Andrew Luck.
Favorites went 6-3 in the morning — Washington, Minnesota and San Diego were upset winners — but the books came out ahead anyway. Three popular ‘dog s— Tampa Bay, Tennessee and Buffalo — burned bettors. The Titans can be considered a bad beat, losing 24-21 to Oakland after a controversial defensive penalty allowed Derek Carr to toss the winning 12-yard touchdown pass with 1:21 to go.
“Despite the success of the favorites,” Kornegay said, “we had a pretty good morning.”
The New York Giants closed as 1½-point favorites at Washington in a public-versus-sharps showdown. I was on the wrong side with the public. The wiseguys were right about the Redskins, who won 20-14 to tie the Giants for first place in the NFC East at 5-6, and the books took that decision, too.
“There wasn’t much of an opportunity to reload in the afternoon,” Rood said, “and the Steelers seemed to be the side most people fell on.”
Arizona, which failed to cover in a lackluster 19-13 win at San Francisco, also dealt the betting public a bad hand.
“We went 2-for-2 in the afternoon, and both of them were sizable decisions,” Kornegay said. “We won our biggest decision of the day on the Cardinals.”
New England closed as a 2½-point favorite at Denver in the most anticipated game of the day. Tom Brady staked the Patriots to leads of 14-0 and 21-7 before they lost tight end Rob Gronkowski and the lead. Peyton Manning was missing, but Brock Osweiler rallied the Broncos, throwing a go-ahead touchdown pass with 1:09 left in the fourth quarter after getting a big assist by a questionable defensive holding call.
“It’s not a huge decision for us, but we certainly needed the Broncos,” Kornegay said. “The Patriots had the most tickets on them of any team this weekend.”
The prop tickets on the Patriots going 16-0 are trash. And as a bitter side note, losing the Steelers and Patriots wrapped up my first 0-5 week in NFL handicapping since 2012.
On the surface, the last game of the week looks like garbage. But Baltimore-Cleveland has a curious smell to bookmakers. The Browns are 3½-point favorites, and it never smells right when teams such as Cleveland and Jacksonville are favored by more than a field goal.
“We are massive Ravens fans. We’ve got absolutely zero money on the Ravens to massive money on the Browns,” Rood said. “It will be easily the biggest Monday night decision of the year.”
How odd is the NFL? One undefeated team remains, and it’s the Panthers, not the Patriots.
— Las Vegas Review-Journal sports betting columnist Matt Youmans can be reached at myoumans@reviewjournal.com or 702-387-2907. He co-hosts “The Las Vegas Sportsline” weekdays at 2 p.m. on ESPN Radio (1100 AM). Follow him on Twitter: @mattyoumans247
