Fitz on NFL betting: Browns can get Rivers on the run
When he’s on, San Diego quarterback Philip Rivers is still among the NFL’s elite. But lately, he has spent too much time on his back.
Sacked 10 times in the first three games, Rivers might be running for safety again today. The Chargers could be missing at least three starting offensive linemen because of injuries when they host the Cleveland Browns.
Off back-to-back losses as road underdogs, the Chargers are 7-point favorites, a number bet down from 7½ late in the week. Las Vegas handicapper Doug Fitz is siding with the Browns in a role that better suits them.
“The Browns are very unreliable when favored, but they often hold their own as underdogs,” said Fitz (@fitz_doug on Twitter). “Looking at this game from a purely statistical perspective, San Diego has the edge. The problem is, this line is too high.
“The Chargers’ offensive line has been riddled with injuries, allowing Rivers to be sacked eight times in their past two losses. San Diego’s defense, on the other hand, has sacked opposing quarterbacks only one time.”
Rivers has completed 74.5 percent of his passes with five touchdowns and four interceptions, but most throws have been short and he’s not stretching the field. Cleveland ranks 27th in the league in total defense — 15th against the pass and last against the run.
Josh McCown passed for 341 yards in a loss to Oakland last week, when the Browns fell behind early and were flat as home favorites. The Browns are 5-2-1 against the spread in their past eight games as road ‘dogs.
“This should be a close game,” Fitz said, “and don’t be surprised if it comes down to a field goal.”
Fitz (Systemplays.com) analyzes the rest of today’s Week 4 schedule:
N.Y. Jets (-1½) vs. Miami (at London): This is a tough game to handicap. Miami coach Joe Philbin is certainly on the hot seat and probably will be fired if his team loses. One positive for the Dolphins is Ryan Tannehill, who is averaging 294 yards passing after three games. Miami is up against a legitimately strong Jets defense. Perhaps the Dolphins can rally around their embattled coach, so I’ll give a lukewarm nod to the underdog.
Jacksonville at Indianapolis (-8): Colts quarterback Andrew Luck is dealing with a right shoulder injury. He has looked pretty bad, posting a passer rating (65.0) near the bottom of the league while throwing seven interceptions. The Jaguars’ Blake Bortles has a long way to go, but he’s starting to show signs of becoming a capable NFL quarterback. With Luck’s health in question, the number is too high, so I’ll side with Jacksonville.
Houston at Atlanta (-6): Sometimes you simply have to side with the better team. The Falcons have done everything right, with Matt Ryan and Julio Jones proving to be a tough combination to stop. Ryan has 946 yards passing, and Jones is second in the league with 440 yards receiving. The Texans have done little right, and I don’t see that changing. I seldom endorse NFL favorites laying around a touchdown, but Atlanta is the way to go.
Carolina (-3) at Tampa Bay: The Panthers reached 3-0 by beating Jacksonville, Houston and New Orleans minus Drew Brees. That’s not too impressive. The Buccaneers also have played a weak schedule, but they beat the Saints with Brees in New Orleans. I can’t justify betting Carolina as a road favorite, so I’ll recommend the ugly ‘dog.
N.Y. Giants at Buffalo (-5½): The Bills have had good starts to the season before, but they usually fade away. Buffalo coach Rex Ryan has instilled a new attitude, however, so this year could be an exception if their defense keeps playing at a high level. The Bills will miss injured running back LeSean McCoy and wide receiver Sammy Watkins in this game. The Giants had two extra days of rest, and their first win might be a jump start. This looks like a spot to play the ‘dog.
Oakland (-3) at Chicago: The Bears, arguably the worst team in the league, have been outscored 105-46 in three losses. Chicago was shut out last week without quarterback Jay Cutler, who is questionable because of a hamstring injury. Jimmy Clausen is a bad backup plan. But the Oakland defense does not compare to the Seattle defense. It’s tough to see a relatively inexperienced Raiders team winning two consecutive road games away from the West Coast. Hold your nose and play the ugly ‘dog.
Philadelphia (-3) at Washington: Perhaps the Eagles turned the corner with their first win last week against the Jets, and I’m hoping the momentum continues. I think it will carry over for at least this week. The Redskins do have the advantage of two extra days between games, but they probably lack the talent to win this division game, and Kirk Cousins is a turnover-prone quarterback. I see no significant situational advantages for Washington, so I’ll say the Eagles should win comfortably for coach Chip Kelly.
Kansas City at Cincinnati (-4): The Chiefs are in a tough spot off a Monday night loss at Green Bay and going back on the road. The Bengals are in an unfavorable sandwich situation, having played division rival Baltimore last week with Seattle coming to town next week. Andy Dalton is off to a hot start with eight touchdown passes and one interception. Cincinnati could be a little flat and looking ahead. The Chiefs keep this one close.
Green Bay (-7½) at San Francisco: The betting public will be all over the Packers, and I can’t argue too much with the obvious reasoning. Still, Green Bay does not play with the same level of intensity away from home, and quarterback Aaron Rodgers makes mistakes on the road he almost never makes at Lambeau Field. The 49ers have problems after blowout losses at Arizona and Pittsburgh, but their backs are against the wall and they should rally to keep this score within a touchdown.
Minnesota at Denver (-7): Adrian Peterson is the main reason the Vikings have improved so much since their Week 1 disaster at San Francisco. Peterson has 260 yards rushing in the past two games. The Broncos are 3-0 straight up and ATS, but it has not been easy. Minnesota actually has a big edge in yards-per-point on both sides of the ball, an important handicapping tool in my opinion. I’ll ride Peterson and the road ‘dog.
St. Louis at Arizona (-7): With the Cardinals 3-0 straight up and ATS, and making it look easy, an overwhelming majority of money will come in on the obvious home favorite. Carson Palmer has been outstanding, and the Arizona defense deserves credit, too. But I’ll back the Rams based on a strong situational system I use. St. Louis, off two losses, is in a good position to cover on the road against a conference opponent. Rams coach Jeff Fisher is due to get a big effort out of his team.
Dallas at New Orleans (-3½): We all know Cowboys quarterback Brandon Weeden is no Tony Romo, but throwing short completions and dumping the ball off to running backs could allow him to have some success against a Saints defense that allows 271 yards per game through the air. Drew Brees is expected to play for New Orleans, but he hasn’t been that effective even when healthy. The Saints have lost six consecutive home games. Take the Cowboys, who play better on the road.
— Compiled by Matt Youmans/Review-Journal
