Many betting factors make Cubs a smart choice over Mets in NLCS
A month ago, New York Mets right-hander Matt Harvey was in the middle of controversy. There was serious debate about shutting him down for the season. But that never happened, and now he holds his team’s postseason fate in his hand.
Harvey will start the opener of the National League Championship Series today against the Chicago Cubs, who counter with lefty Jon Lester. The Mets are minus-115 favorites in a game they desperately need to win.
The Mets desperately need to win the opener because Cubs ace Jake Arrieta, who has been unbeatable for three months, is going in Game 2.
“You know the Mets will be a huge ‘dog with Arrieta pitching,” said Ed Salmons, Westgate Las Vegas sports book manager. “The Mets just need to split at home, which is opposite of conventional thinking where the road team needs to split.”
When the scene shifts to Wrigley Field, the Mets will have their power arms — Jacob deGrom and Noah Syndergaard — ready to fire. The way the pitching is set up makes Harvey’s first start the key to the series.
As for the series, the Cubs are minus-145 favorites to advance, but that price is a little misleading. Las Vegas sports books are facing more liability on the Cubs on the World Series futures board, and the betting public is showing more support for the Cubs by the day, so the price is inflated to help attract action on the Mets.
“It’s the Cubs, are you kidding? The Cubs have the most tickets of any team,” Salmons said.
“I think it will be a six- or seven-game series. It’s pretty even to me. If you made me pick it at this price, I would take a shot on the Mets, but it’s not something I’ll bet.”
The Cubs go into the series with three distinct advantages:
1) Joe Maddon, an outside-the-box thinker and sharp strategist, is simply a better manager than Terry Collins.
2) Chicago has a more explosive lineup led by Anthony Rizzo, Kyle Schwarber and Kris Bryant of Las Vegas.
3) The Cubs are a confident team after going 7-0 against the Mets and outscoring them 27-11 during the regular season.
“I think the pitching lines up to give the Cubs a little advantage,” said handicapper Chuck Edel (ChuckEdel.com). “I like the Cubs, but it’s not a huge opinion, and I’m not laying minus-145 because that seems high.”
Of course, there is an argument for the Mets, who have a deeper starting rotation and stronger bullpen.
The lasting vision of the Cubs, who go into the series on extra rest, is of Schwarber and his teammates bombing the St. Louis Cardinals at Wrigley Field. Still, the Mets just pulled off an impressive feat by beating the Los Angeles Dodgers in five games, with Clayton Kershaw and Zack Greinke starting four times.
“Some people will make too much of the Cubs-Cardinals series,” Salmons said. “It was home run derby for the Cubs, and the Cardinals were definitely a beat-up team at the time.
“The Mets’ starting pitching is night-and-day better than the Cardinals’ pitching.”
New York is the value bet in the series because of the inflated price — which in reality should be Chicago minus-120 — but a better approach is probably to wager on individual games and consider adjusted series prices after each game.
Harvey, who pitched through a supposed innings limit that was meant to protect his future after Tommy John surgery, threw seven scoreless innings in his only start against the Cubs this season. He deserves to be favored in Game 1.
Arrieta will draw action to the Cubs’ side in Game 2, and rightfully so.
Pick: Cubs in 7
Contact reporter Matt Youmans at myoumans@reviewjournal.com or 702-387-2907. Follow him: @mattyoumans247
