Michigan’s Harbaugh effect overblown against Spartans
Patience might be a virtue in some aspects of life, but there’s no place for it in the sports world anymore. Jim Harbaugh is a Type A personality, meaning he’s aggressive, ambitious and impatient.
Harbaugh is what’s hot in college football now. Most other new coaches attempting to turn around programs have been relegated to the B-list and put on the hot seat. If Harbaugh can turn around Michigan in a month, what’s your problem?
The shine is off Al Golden at Miami, Charlie Strong is on a short leash at Texas, and Mike Riley is seemingly already buried after one bad month at Nebraska. The five-year rebuilding plan is as archaic as the rotary-dial phone. Win now or get lost.
There never was a doubt Harbaugh would work his magic with the Wolverines. He just turned the trick in the blink of an eye.
“The coach is no-nonsense, and I like that,” said John Avello, Wynn Las Vegas sports book director. “Harbaugh’s probably the perfect fit for a college team. He comes into a program that was in the basement, and they are certainly on the improve.”
This weekend will be all about hyping Harbaugh. ESPN has set up camp in Ann Arbor for Michigan’s rivalry game with Michigan State. The Wolverines are 7½-point favorites, and Avello said he considers the number to be “too much value” on the underdog.
In late June, when Golden Nugget oddsmakers opened lines on the season’s top games, Michigan State was a 4½-point favorite over Michigan. On Sept. 14, the Westgate line on the game had the Spartans as 6½-point favorites.
A two-touchdown swing in one month shows how much of an impact Harbaugh has made on the Big Ten race. It’s no longer a given that top-ranked Ohio State will be the runaway winner.
In the same calendar year that Urban Meyer coached the Buckeyes to the national championship, he’s suddenly getting less press than Harbaugh. Ohio State is 6-0 yet seriously underachieving at 1-5 against the spread.
Michigan State is 6-0 straight up and 0-6 ATS. So, the shifts in lines and perceptions are not all due to the Wolverines’ improvement. The Buckeyes and Spartans have been downgraded for disappointing results.
Being cast in the role of the disrespected underdog could play to Michigan State’s advantage because coach Mark Dantonio is sure to repeatedly mention it to his team. It’s a series the Spartans have dominated in recent years, winning six of the past seven meetings while covering the spread in all seven.
Michigan State’s biggest edge is at quarterback. Connor Cook, who has passed for 12 touchdowns with two interceptions, is a battle-tested senior. He has some sort of future in the NFL. Michigan quarterback Jake Rudock is a graduate transfer from Iowa with ordinary numbers in his past.
Bernie Fratto, a sharp football bettor and former Detroit Lions radio host, is calling for a “glorious moment” for Cook in a narrow Spartans win.
“Harbaugh’s group has been aggressive, physical and never intimidated in any contest,” Fratto said. “But they haven’t faced an offense ranked better than 70th, and Michigan State will relentlessly wreak havoc on Rudock. Cook is 29-3 as a starter, has far more experience in big games, and he’s led the Spartans to at least 24 points in 21 straight games. The only other team to do that? Baylor.”
With the San Francisco 49ers, Harbaugh reached a Super Bowl with a great defense and a strong offensive line. In an era of spread offenses, he runs a grinding Big Ten offense that overpowers opponents. And he has another great defense.
The Wolverines have pitched three straight shutouts — against Brigham Young, Maryland and Northwestern — and allowed double digits only in a season-opening 24-17 loss at Utah. The last team to score on Michigan was UNLV.
Blake Decker’s 6-yard touchdown pass to Devonte Boyd with 9:17 to play was the last time the Wolverines surrendered anything. That was Sept. 19, before the Rebels put up 80 points on Idaho State and upset UNR in Reno.
Tony Sanchez is another new coach doing an impressive turnaround job, though on a lighter scale. UNLV (2-4) is a 6½-point road favorite tonight over Fresno State. Avello opened the line at minus-2 on Sunday, and the Rebels have drawn heavy action all week.
“That (line) sure shot up,” Avello said. “It might have been an oversight on my part because Fresno is just not good. The Rebels seem to be on the upswing, and their confidence level is much higher now.”
Jim McElwain, who left Colorado State for Florida, has the Gators out to a 6-0 start. But neither Sanchez nor McElwain has Harbaugh’s pedigree and power.
On Sept. 14, the Westgate line had Ohio State as a 13½-point favorite at Michigan in late November, and today, the Buckeyes are 1-point favorites.
Harbaugh and Meyer can bring the Michigan-Ohio State rivalry back to the glory days of Bo Schembechler and Woody Hayes.
For now, the focus is on the Spartans and Wolverines and 100,000-plus fans in Ann Arbor. Michigan has a dominant defense and a coach with a killer instinct. Michigan State has the better quarterback and the motivation of being the disrespected ‘dog. The line adjustment appears to be too dramatic.
* CLOSING NUMBERS — I traded money with the books and went 3-3 last week, putting my season record at 21-9-1. Here are seven plays for Saturday (home team in CAPS):
MASSACHUSETTS (-7) over Kent State; Florida (+8) over LOUISIANA STATE; Michigan State (+7½) over MICHIGAN; Louisville (+7½) over FLORIDA STATE; Southern California (+6½) over NOTRE DAME; NEW MEXICO (-5) over Hawaii; WASHINGTON (-2½) over Oregon.
Las Vegas Review-Journal sports betting columnist Matt Youmans can be reached at myoumans@reviewjournal.com or 702-387-2907. He co-hosts “The Las Vegas Sportsline” weekdays at 2 p.m. on ESPN Radio (1100 AM). Follow him on Twitter: @mattyoumans247
