Wisconsin worthy favorite in tough game to pick
Two days after getting rid of Kentucky — and good riddance to those sore losers — a tougher opponent is awaiting Wisconsin. And it’s not the letdown factor. It’s just never easy to beat Mike Krzyzewski.
It will be even more difficult to knock out Coach K now because Duke has been playing better basketball than Kentucky for the past three weeks. The best two teams in the NCAA Tournament are meeting today in the title game, something that does not happen that often.
In most years, it’s about teams that get hot at the right time. This time, the Badgers and Blue Devils, both No. 1 seeds, are worthy potential champions.
John Avello, Wynn Las Vegas sports book director, did not hesitate for a second Saturday night before opening the line.
“I think Wisconsin deserves to be the favorite,” Avello said. “If you beat a team like that, you deserve to be the favorite.”
Avello had his mind made up before the final buzzer sounded in the Badgers’ 71-64 upset of the Wildcats, who were 38-1 and done. It was a high-level game tainted by low-level officiating, but the bad calls by the clowns in stripes went both ways, and the better team won.
“Kentucky was definitely outplayed,” South Point oddsmaker Jimmy Vaccaro said. “That Wisconsin team is pretty damn good. The two big kids are pretty good.”
Sam Dekker, one of the big kids, knocked down the biggest shot, a go-ahead 3-pointer from the top with 1:42 remaining as the Badgers closed the game with a 15-4 run. Frank Kaminsky, a big 7-foot senior, finished with 20 points and 11 rebounds.
When it was over, some Kentucky players who always shook hands after wins stormed off the court without shaking hands. One made a disrespectful comment about Kaminsky, but who cares? That team is history, and it never was perfect.
The Wildcats, who should have lost an overtime game against Mississippi in early January, were a little overrated because of their record. A zero in the loss column shapes perceptions. Kentucky mostly cruised through mediocre competition in the Southeastern Conference, getting lucky to beat Texas A&M and Louisiana State along the way, and barely escaped Notre Dame in the Elite Eight.
It looked like a team that was ripe to get picked off. Wisconsin, which shot 48 percent from the field and outworked the Wildcats for a 34-22 advantage in rebounds, won in a manner that was not a fluke.
Duke was just as impressive, though, in a 20-point massacre of Michigan State in the first Final Four semifinal in Indianapolis. The Blue Devils have played surprisingly solid defense throughout the tournament, and Jahlil Okafor, Justise Winslow and Quinn Cook form a serious triple threat on the offensive end.
Avello opened the Badgers as 1-point favorites. A little early money on the Blue Devils kept the line at pick ’em at most spots. But by Sunday afternoon, Wisconsin went back to minus-1 at almost every Las Vegas book. The total is 140.
“I think Wisconsin is a little better than Duke,” Vaccaro said. “We took numerous bets on it. We’re like $20,000 high on Wisconsin, so there is money on it.”
At tipoff, Vaccaro said, it could close pick ’em, just as the Super Bowl did two months ago, when New England beat Seattle in a wild finish that defined a pick ’em game. Duke-Wisconsin feels just as tough to pick.
I entered three bracket contests. In two of them, I had the Badgers beating the Blue Devils in the championship. In the other, the Blue Devils were beating the Badgers. My decision is as conflicted now as it was then. I lean to Wisconsin.
If Kaminsky can step out and pull Okafor away from the lane, and Dekker can continue to hit the big shots he made against Kentucky and Arizona, the Badgers should win a thriller.
“I think the line is right,” said Nick Bogdanovich, William Hill sports book director. “If you put a gun to my head, I’ll say Wisconsin.”
I watched the teams’ first meeting on Dec. 3 in the Atlantic Coast Conference-Big Ten Challenge — the Blue Devils ran the Badgers off the floor in Madison, winning 80-70 as 4-point underdogs — and that makes it tough to run to the window and bet Wisconsin.
“There will be a flow to the game; there will be some good offense,” Bogdanovich said. “It’s going to be a great game. We’ll write big business for this game.”
The NCAA Tournament has been good for business, and Saturday’s win by Wisconsin got William Hill books off the hook for potential six-figure losses on the proposition of Kentucky finishing undefeated.
Duke’s win pulled the Golden Nugget off the hook for a potential $1 million loss. Derek Stevens, owner of The D Las Vegas, bet $20,000 on Michigan State at 50-1 odds in December, and Nugget book director Tony Miller was sweating it out, briefly.
“I can’t remember a bigger tournament,” Vaccaro said of the wagering handle. “My guess is it’s the best March madness we’ve ever seen.”
And the two best teams are the last two standing. Good luck picking a winner.
Las Vegas Review-Journal sports betting columnist Matt Youmans can be reached at myoumans@reviewjournal.com or 702-387-2907. He co-hosts “The Las Vegas Sportsline” weekdays at 2 p.m. on ESPN Radio (1100 AM). Follow him on Twitter: @mattyoumans247
