LeBron, Cavaliers solid bet to return to NBA Finals
In the summers, the best basketball player in the world turns into the NBA’s leading soap opera star. LeBron James is staying in Cleveland, but as his world turns, there are always decisions to make.
Who will be playing with him? Is his relationship with Kevin Love just a one-year affair? Will he demand a different coach?
No matter what changes James influences, the Cavaliers are a better bet to win next year’s championship than the Golden State Warriors are to repeat. That is no disrespect to Stephen Curry.
“With the easier path they have to get there, it’s more likely the Cavs will be in the Finals,” said Jeff Sherman, oddsmaker at the Westgate Las Vegas sports book.
Sherman opened Cleveland as the 9-4 favorite to win the 2015-16 NBA title, with Golden State the second choice at 5-1 odds. The first futures bet placed this week at the Westgate was on the Cavaliers to win the Eastern Conference at minus-180.
“As long as LeBron is healthy, no team in the East is going to beat them,” Sportsmemo.com handicapper Erin Rynning said. “I suppose the Cavaliers would try to bring in some shooters, because they need shooters who can stretch the floor.”
James aside, the Cavaliers were awful offensively in the last three games of the Finals. Of course, it was a depleted team minus Love and point guard Kyrie Irving because of injuries. Love can be a free agent July 1. Last summer, when dramatically taking his talents back to Cleveland from Miami, James pushed the team to trade for Love.
Sherman said he disliked the “quick fix” deal that sent No. 1 draft pick Andrew Wiggins to Minnesota, and he doubts Cleveland should offer Love a maximum five-year, $100 million contract. “The Cavs got that far without Love and played better defense without him,” Sherman said.
With the salary cap set to balloon next summer, it would seem wise for elite free agents to re-sign for only one year.
“I wouldn’t be surprised if Love signs a one-year contract and sees how it goes in Cleveland,” Rynning said. “It’s going to be kind of a strange year, so I think there’s going to be a lot of guys playing on one-year contracts. I don’t see a whole lot of change. To me, next summer could be pretty crazy.”
In honor of the retired David Letterman, here’s a Top 10 list of storylines for the next NBA season:
10. Will the Warriors keep Draymond Green? It’s never easy to repeat, especially for a team coming out of the wild West, yet the Warriors will return essentially the same team if they can keep Green. After posting a triple-double in Game 6 of the Finals, Green is due for a fat raise as a restricted free agent. Golden State is prepared to part ways with David Lee, but bet on Green getting his money.
“Golden State is not going to let Green get away,” Rynning said.
9. Is Boston rising in the East? The Celtics won 40 games, a 15-win improvement in Brad Stevens’ second year as coach. Another big jump is unlikely, as Boston lacks a go-to scorer.
8. Chicago has a new “Mayor.” The Bulls are running with coach Fred Hoiberg, who had an up-tempo offense at Iowa State. He should mesh well with guards Derrick Rose and Jimmy Butler, a restricted free agent. Chicago must re-sign Butler and hope Hoiberg was the right choice.
7. The Knicks still could be a train wreck. Phil Jackson’s costly mistake was to build around Carmelo Anthony, the league’s most overrated star. After a 17-65 season, Jackson’s free pass with the New York media is about to expire.
6. Is Kobe Bryant really retiring? Bryant is breaking down, and the Lakers are bad. In the No. 2 spot in next week’s draft, the Lakers are expected to take Duke big man Jahlil Okafor. That would be a wise pick, but even with roster upgrades, the Lakers will be lucky to make the playoffs.
5. Billy Donovan’s honeymoon in Oklahoma City is a roll of the dice. Donovan’s first year as an NBA coach might be his only chance to get it right. Expectations are high for the Thunder, at 5-1 on the odds board alongside Golden State. Kevin Durant, an unrestricted free agent in 2016, might be looking to go home to the Washington Wizards.
4. Are they the same Clippers, just with a new logo and new uniforms? Doc Rivers’ questionable move to trade for Lance Stephenson sets up a make-or-break season for a crew of underachievers. The Clippers’ collapse in the playoffs — a blown 3-1 series lead against Houston — will haunt them for a long time.
3. LaMarcus Aldridge, Portland’s All-Star power forward, could make a major impact in the West. Aldridge will be an unrestricted free agent July 1.
“The best free agent will be Aldridge,” Rynning said. “There are rumors he could go to Dallas, San Antonio and the Lakers. It probably makes sense for him to sign a one-year contract with Portland and see how that plays out.”
2. It’s the same old story for San Antonio, which still is a serious contender. At 12-1 odds, the Spurs look like the best value bet. Kawhi Leonard is a restricted free agent, and Tim Duncan, Manu Ginobili and Danny Green are unrestricted.
“It will be interesting to see what happens with the Spurs,” Rynning said, “but it sounds like all of those guys are going to be back.”
1. Is next year finally LeBron’s championship year in Cleveland? James is not going anywhere, but coach David Blatt’s job security will be a popular soap opera theme.
Las Vegas Review-Journal sports betting columnist Matt Youmans can be reached at myoumans@reviewjournal.com or 702-387-2907. He co-hosts “The Las Vegas Sportsline” weekdays at 2 p.m. on ESPN Radio (1100 AM). Follow him on Twitter: @mattyoumans247.
