Manning mystery clouds forecast for Broncos

Jan 11, 2015; Denver, CO, USA; Denver Broncos quarterback Peyton Manning (18) at the end of the fourth quarter in their loss to the Indianapolis Colts in the 2014 AFC Divisional playoff football game at Sports Authority Field at Mile High. The Colts won 24-13. (Chris Humphreys-USA TODAY Sports

Denver Broncos quarterback Peyton Manning. (Chris Humphreys-USA TODAY Sports)

Only briefly did it appear Peyton Manning might actually retire to a rocking chair. After taking time off following another disaster in the playoffs, the 39-year-old quarterback announced his return to the Denver Broncos in early March.

He’s still pitching cars, insurance and pizza. But can he throw the football with some pepperoni on it?

Manning’s fading health is becoming an old storyline with each passing NFL season, and he will be watched closely during the preseason in August. Can he still play at an elite level?

“I really have no idea. All I know is he’s looking older and older,” Westgate Las Vegas sports book manager Ed Salmons said. “It was hard to watch at the end of last year. Manning is definitely a big mystery.”

Salmons and the Westgate’s team of oddsmakers posted NFL regular-season win totals Sunday, one day after the conclusion of the draft. The Broncos’ total opened at 10, and the first sharp bet drove the “over” price from minus-120 to minus-140.

The logical approach is to believe in Manning until forced to lose faith in him. He was as sharp as ever in the first half of last season, passing for 22 touchdowns with three interceptions through seven games.

The end was the excruciating part. In the final four games, he threw three touchdown passes and six interceptions, and he went out with a whimper in a postseason loss to the Indianapolis Colts. Andrew Luck looked like the future, leaving Manning in the past.

It was later revealed Manning was struggling with a serious thigh injury suffered in December. A neck injury once threatened to end his career, and his lack of arm strength has triggered questions about the health of his right shoulder.

He tosses more ducks than spirals these days, but he always finds ways to win.

In three years in Denver, Manning has led the team to 13-3, 13-3 and 12-4 records, so topping the 10-win plateau again this season appears realistic. But Manning’s physical fitness will be the key to solving the mystery of the Broncos.

The Westgate also posted odds to win divisions and lines on several of the season’s top games. Denver is the AFC West favorite at 5-12 odds. The Broncos opened as 2½-point home favorites over the Green Bay Packers on Nov. 1 and as 1½-point home favorites over the New England Patriots on Nov. 29.

The passing of the draft cleared the forecast for the oddsmakers. San Diego did not deal quarterback Philip Rivers, and Minnesota held on to running back Adrian Peterson, at least for now.

Quarterbacks went with the top two picks — Jameis Winston to Tampa Bay and Marcus Mariota to Tennessee. Philadelphia coach Chip Kelly reportedly offered a boatload of picks and players to the Titans for the right to draft Mariota, but his trade proposal sunk.

“You can’t make a trade like that. It’s reckless,” said Salmons, an Eagles fan. “Those trades where you give away everything for one player, I can’t remember when it turned out good for the team getting the one. For the Eagles’ sake, I’m glad it turned out the way it did. If you could trade all of that for Andrew Luck, I would endorse it, but I don’t think Mariota is Luck.

“As for the rest of the draft, it was a nonevent for us.”

Salmons is endorsing the Colts, whose win total opened at 10½ (over minus-170). Indianapolis added veteran running back Frank Gore and picked Phillip Dorsett, a speed receiver from Miami, in the first round.

“Luck is just unbelievable,” Salmons said. “Right now, in my mind, the Colts are the best team in the AFC.”

The Patriots, who deflated the Colts in an AFC title game blowout, opened with a win total of 10½ (over minus-130). Bill Belichick quieted the Deflate-gate controversy by winning the Super Bowl, but he has to rebuild part of his defense after losing star cornerback Darrelle Revis to the New York Jets.

Salmons posted the Cincinnati Bengals’ win total at 8½ before taking a shot at coach Marvin Lewis.

“If Belichick coached the Bengals, I bet they would win multiple Super Bowls in the next five years,” Salmons said. “I think Cincinnati has that kind of talent level.”

Seattle and Green Bay top the Westgate’s win-total list at 11. As expected, Tampa Bay, Jacksonville, Tennessee and Oakland can be found at the bottom. Seven teams won five or fewer games last season. The lowest posted win total for this season is 5½, a distinction shared by the Jaguars, Titans and Raiders.

“I know Tampa Bay will be dramatically improved,” Salmons said. “The Buccaneers were really competitive in a lot of games, and the record can be deceiving. I like Winston a lot. He really reminds me of Ben Roethlisberger.

“I know Jacksonville will be dramatically improved, but I’m not sure if it will show in the wins and losses. I know those two teams will be better, but they could be 4-12 and lose a lot of close games. I think those teams are going to be underrated as far as the point spread.”

The Broncos, because of the Manning mystery, might be a little underrated, too.

Las Vegas Review-Journal sports betting columnist Matt Youmans can be reached at myoumans@reviewjournal.com or 702-387-2907. He co-hosts “The Las Vegas Sportsline” weekdays at 2 p.m. on ESPN Radio (1100 AM). Follow him on Twitter: @mattyoumans247.