Mickelson sports look of U.S. Open contender
A caddie will carry his bag, and Phil Mickelson will walk the course with a monkey on his back this week. Year after year, it’s the same story when Mickelson shows up for golf’s second major.
He has six runner-up finishes in the U.S. Open, the only major he has not won. How heavy is the burden? Is this his last shot? Is this finally his year?
Finishing second in an elite field is nothing to be ashamed of, but it also can be depressing. LeBron James and the Cavaliers know the feeling. James has won two NBA titles, but he desperately wants one in Cleveland. Mickelson seems to want the U.S. Open just as badly.
It’s not just fantasy to think this is his year. Always one of the most popular names on the betting board, Mickelson has the game to be a legitimate contender.
“I think he’s live. Mickelson is in my top five or six for sure,” William Hill sports book director Nick Bogdanovich said. “If he’s ever going to play well, it’s going to be this week. I can definitely understand why there’s money for him.”
More tickets are being written on Mickelson than on any other player at the Westgate Las Vegas sports book, where his odds are 15-1 after opening at 25-1. Rory McIlroy is the 7-1 favorite, with Masters winner Jordan Spieth at 8-1.
In April at Augusta National, Spieth finished four strokes ahead of Mickelson and Justin Rose. Finishing second was a sign Mickelson, who turned 45 on Tuesday, still can play with the young guns. Three days ago, he fired a final-round 65 to finish third in the St. Jude Classic in Memphis, Tenn.
Mickelson is in good form, is confident in his play and appears to be a horse for the course. Chambers Bay Golf Club in University Place, Wash., features wide fairways and favors long drivers. It’s a links-style layout that challenges players to hit creative shots and scramble around the greens.
A gambler and a scrambler, “Lefty” might be on the right course at the right time.
“It’s British Open-style play with the difficulty of a U.S. Open,” Westgate oddsmaker Jeff Sherman said. “Not a lot is known about this course. No one is going to have any answers until Thursday when we see things in motion.”
Mickelson won the British Open two years ago, so he has that going for him, which is nice.
“Phil has come so close so many times, and there’s a lot of hype because he’s coming off a good performance. When he says his game is ready now, there’s this hoopla,” Sherman said. “But I still refrain from thinking Mickelson will keep things together for four rounds and get a ‘W’ at this point in his career.”
Unlike the betting public, Sherman is not caught up in the Mickelson hype and hoopla. Plus, he prefers players at longer odds, players such as Jim Furyk and Hideki Matsuyama, each at 30-1.
Ryan Moore, a former UNLV standout, is an attractive long shot at 60-1. Moore grew up about 15 miles from Chambers Bay in the Seattle area, so he has a home-course advantage. A four-time winner on the PGA Tour, Moore tied for 12th in the British Open last year.
I put futures bets on Mickelson, Moore and Rose, who is at 15-1 and knocking on the door of a second major win. Rose, who beat Mickelson by two strokes in the U.S. Open two years ago, lost the Memorial in a playoff two weeks ago. He made a big run at Spieth in the Masters.
“Spieth has the most money bet on him. He’s on everybody’s short list,” Sherman said. “It wouldn’t surprise anybody if Spieth went up there to contend, if not win.”
It would shock the world if Tiger Woods is in the hunt on the weekend. Woods has not won a major since the U.S. Open in 2008, and his year has been a disaster. His odds have reached an all-time high of 60-1.
Sherman posted some propositions that are worth a laugh at Tiger’s expense, including his finish position of 74½. The “No” price on Woods to make the cut is minus-140, and 6½ is the prop number for Woods’ highest score on any hole.
Woods has hit such a low that he’s a plus-175 underdog in separate tournament matchups against Brooks Koepka and Billy Horschel.
Not everyone has given up hope. In a tone of disbelief, Sherman said, “Tiger is in the top five in money and tickets.”
Of course, the public also was enamored with the Cavaliers. At least LeBron gave them a shot. Tiger, in reality, is about a 100-1 shot.
Mostly because of the element of course uncertainty, this U.S. Open is tough to predict and probably not a great one to bet. It will draw about half the wagering handle of the Masters.
But every major is entertaining, and this one would be especially compelling if Mickelson — carrying a monkey on his back — is in contention Sunday.
Las Vegas Review-Journal sports betting columnist Matt Youmans can be reached at myoumans@reviewjournal.com or 702-387-2907. He co-hosts “The Las Vegas Sportsline” weekdays at 2 p.m. on ESPN Radio (1100 AM). Follow him on Twitter: @mattyoumans247.
