In the Preakness, did you see ‘Laurel’ or ‘Yanny’?
Horse racing had its own “Laurel” or “Yanny” moment in last weekend’s Preakness Stakes.
Just as with the internet meme where different listeners heard two distinctly different utterances in the same recording, racing fans who watched the second jewel of the Triple Crown came away with two distinct impressions. (If you have no idea what I’m talking about, congratulations on saving several valuable minutes of your life.)
In the first view, let’s call them the “Laurels,” Justify overcame adversity for the first time in his career, staring down Good Magic in what I’m calling the “fogfight” (copyright pending), while still fending off closers Bravazo and Tenfold. Yes, the Beyer Speed Figure of 97 he earned in the victory was the lowest of his five races, but that was due to the stiff competition he faced early on.
For the “Yannys,” however, the unexpected early challenge from Good Magic revealed that the burst of racing Justify has experienced after not racing at age 2 is beginning to catch up with the Bob Baffert-trained son of Scat Daddy. Yes, he held on to keep his Triple Crown bid alive in the Belmont Stakes on June 9, but in doing so he showed that he’s tailing off from his recent exertions and will be vulnerable in the 1½-mile “Test of the Champion.”
It’s not that unusual for horseplayers to have completely different takeaways after a race, which just might be influenced by whether they had a bet riding on the outcome or other factors.
And in this case, there probably is some truth in both interpretations.
Horseplayers have to have opinions and be willing to wager that theirs are more accurate over the long run than those of the wagering public at large, but it also pays to keep an open mind.
While I have some thoughts on what the Preakness might foretell as far as the Belmont Stakes is concerned, I’m doing my best not to lock myself into either camp just yet. I’ll be watching carefully how Baffert handles Justify in the coming days after his return for a jog on Thursday and then make my decision close to the race, when it’s clear whom his opponents will be, how he’s been training, what the weather forecast will be, etc.
Whether you saw “Laurel” or “Yanny” in the Preakness, I urge you to do the same.
#RJhorseracing featured races
As we await the dramatic conclusion of the Triple Crown, the #RJhorseracing handicappers are keeping their wits honed with two challenging races on Saturday’s card at Monmouth Park: the eighth, a turf sprint for maidens 3 years old and up, and the 10th, the $75,000 Boiling Springs Stakes, a 1 1/16th mile turf race for 3-year-old fillies.
In the eighth, the crew was locked in a dead heat between Sensible Myth, the 5-2 morning line favorite, and Off the Bourbon (4-1), a first-time starter for trainer Graham Motion. They also had a three-way tie for third among Stormy Change (12-1), Nora’s Drama (3-1) and Giggle Byte (6-1).
I’ll go with the chalk, as Sensible Myth caught my eye when she was running at Santa Anita.
In the Boiling Springs Stakes, the gang is siding with the Chad Brown-trained favorite, Reversethedecision (5-2), over his stablemate, So Hi Society (4-1), and Coffee Crush (5-1).
But the favorite’s draw in the 10 post is no bargain, as contributor Les Izmore notes. “Probably best filly, but awful post. Can’t bet on or against at expected short price.”
Sound advice from a sharp handicapper. I’ll heed it and back Jehozacat (8-1), who won her first try on the turf before being eased in the Grade 3 Florida Oaks.
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Mike Brunker’s horse racing column appears Friday. He can be reached at mbrunker@reviewjournal.com or 702-383-4656. Follow @mike_brunker on Twitter.
