NFL Week 2 betting breakdown
NFL WEEK 2 BETTING BREAKDOWN
Alex B. Smith, AxSmithSports.com
Tennessee (0-1) at Jacksonville (1-0)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/Total: Titans -1½, 42½
Alex Smith’s analysis: Jacksonville pulled off the most surprising victory of Week 1, with a dominating 29-7 road win over Houston. The Jaguars host a Titans team loaded with offensive weapons and looking to bounce back from a 10-point loss to Oakland. Jacksonville will be without top wide receiver Allen Robinson, who suffered a season-ending knee injury against the Raiders.
By the numbers: The Jaguars have won and covered their last three home meetings vs. the Titans. … Tennessee is on a 13-7-1 over run since late 2015.
Alex Smith’s pick: Titans, 31-13
Cleveland (0-1) at Baltimore (1-0)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/Total: Ravens -8, 39
Alex Smith’s analysis: Browns rookie quarterback DeShone Kizer almost led a dramatic comeback against rival Pittsburgh, covering in a 21-18 loss. Baltimore blanked Cincinnati 20-0 while forcing five turnovers, finishing with five sacks and holding the Bengals to 221 total yards.
By the numbers: The Ravens are 4-2 ATS in their last six meetings with the Browns and 9-1 ATS in their last 10 vs. AFC North opponents. … Cleveland is 2-10 ATS in their last 12 division games.
Alex Smith’s pick: Ravens, 26-20
Buffalo (1-0) at Carolina (1-0)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/Total: Panthers -7, 43
Alex Smith’s analysis: It’s a homecoming game for Bills coach Sean McDermott, who was Carolina’s defensive coordinator last season. Buffalo made easy work of the lowly Jets in a 21-12 season-opening victory. The Panthers beat the 49ers, 23-3, thanks to a strong defensive effort as the Niners produced only 217 total yards.
By the numbers: The Bills are 5-0 in their last five games versus NFC opponents. … Carolina is 10-4 ATS as a home favorite versus a non-division opponent.
Alex Smith’s pick: Panthers, 28-17
New England (0-1) at New Orleans (0-1)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/Total: Patriots -6½, 56
Alex Smith’s analysis: The Patriots’ championship ceremony was ruined by Kansas City on Sept. 7 as Chiefs quarterback Alex Smith (no relation) threw for 368 yards and four TDs in a 42-27 win over New England. The Patriots also lost wideoutDanny Amendola to a concussion and linebacker Dont’a Hightower to injury. New Orleans fell flat to Minnesota on Monday, losing 29-19 in running back Adrian Peterson’s return to the Twin Cities. Peterson gained a measly 18 yards.
By the numbers: New Orleans was 5-0 ATS last season as a home underdog and has gone over the total in 11 of its last 16 home games. … New England is 7-2 SU and 6-3 ATS in its last 11 games off a loss.
Alex Smith’s pick: Patriots, 45-34
Arizona (0-1) at Indianapolis (0-1)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/Total: Cardinals -7, 44
Alex Smith’s analysis: Arizona coach Bruce Arians returns to Indianapolis, where he filled in for Colts coach Chuck Pagano five years ago as Pagano battled cancer. Both teams come into this game off disappointing Week 1 losses and with both coaches potentially feeling the hot seat. Arizona will be without injured star running back David Johnson while Indy is struggling to adjust to life without quarterback Andrew Luck.
By the numbers: Arizona is on a 3-9 ATS slide. … The Colts are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games as a home underdog.
Alex Smith’s pick: Cardinals, 23-17
Philadelphia (1-0) at Kansas City (1-0)
Time: 10 a.m., KVVU (5)
Line/Total: Chiefs -5½, 47½
Alex Smith’s analysis: Kansas City coach Andy Reid’s old club flies into town fresh off a 30-17 Week 1 win over division rival Washington thanks to some late blunders by the Redskins. The Chiefs scored 21 unanswered points to upset the Patriots on Sept. 7. Quarterback Alex Smith, running back Kareem Hunt and wideout Tyreek Hill lead a sharp Chiefs offense to complement Kansas City’s sturdy defensive unit.
By the numbers: Philly is 11-2 ATS versus AFC opponents, but only 2-6 ATS in its last 8 road contests. … Kansas City has covered six of its last seven games at home.
Alex Smith’s pick: Chiefs, 26-17
Minnesota (1-0) at Pittsburgh (1-0)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/Total: Steelers -6, 45
Alex Smith’s analysis: The Vikings storm into the Steel City off an impressive 29-19 win over New Orleans on Monday night, while Pittsburgh squeaked out with a 21-18 victory over Cleveland. Minnesota looks to have a fierce running tandem with rookie running back Dalvin Cook and veteran Jerick McKinnon, along with a revamped offensive line.
By the numbers: Minnesota is on a 22-9 ATS run, including a 13-6 ATS mark as a road underdog. … Pittsburgh is on an 11-2 SU run at home, but just 2-3-1 ATS in its last six home contests.
Alex Smith’s pick: Steelers, 23-20
Chicago (0-1) at Tampa Bay (0-0)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/Total: Bucs -7, 43
Alex Smith’s analysis: The Buccaneers return home after missing Week 1 because of Hurricane Irma. Chicago missed ample opportunities to defeat Atlanta at home, losing its opener 23-17. Bears quarterback Mike Glennon will get a chance to square off against his old club, which will be playing with heavy hearts at home.
By the numbers: Tampa Bay is 1-8 ATS in its last nine games as a home favorite. … Chicago is 2-6 ATS in its last eight road contests.
Alex Smith’s pick: Bears, 24-21
Miami (0-0) at L.A. Chargers (0-1)
Time: 1:05 p.m.
Line/Total: Chargers -4, 45½
Alex Smith’s analysis: The Dolphins finally kick off their 2017 season, which was delayed because of Hurricane Irma. The Chargers were a timeout and a blocked field goal short of tying Denver in the final seconds of Monday night’s 24-21 loss. But credit Los Angeles’ defense for getting the club back into the game in the second half.
By the numbers: The Dolphins are on an 8-3-1 ATS run. … Miami has won and covered three of its last four meetings with the Chargers.
Alex Smith’s pick: Chargers, 27-24
N.Y. Jets (0-1) at Oakland (1-0)
Time: 1:05 p.m., KLAS (8)
Line/Total: Raiders -13½, 43½
Alex Smith’s analysis: The Oakland Raiders got off to a strong start with a 26-16 Week 1 win and cover over the Titans. They’ll open at home against a Jets squad that picked up a paltry 38 yards on the ground in a 21-12 division loss at Buffalo. This won’t be the last time we see New York as a double-digit underdog this year.
By the numbers: Oakland is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 games as a favorite. … The Jets are 2-6 SU and ATS in their last eight road games.
Alex Smith’s pick: Raiders, 35-10
Washington (0-1) at L.A. Rams (1-0)
Time: 1:25 p.m.
Line/Total: Rams -2½, 45
Alex Smith’s analysis: The Rams opened their season with a 46-9 home rout of Indianapolis. The Redskins fly cross-country off a 30-17 loss to the Eagles in a game that was closer than the final score indicates. I expect a cleaner effort from quarterback Kirk Cousins and Co. on the road.
By the numbers: Washington is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 games. … The Rams are on a 1-10-1 ATS slide.
Alex Smith’s pick: Redskins, 27-16
Dallas (1-0) at Denver (1-0)
Time: 1:25 p.m., KVVU (5)
Line/Total: Cowboys -2, 42
Alex Smith’s analysis: These two clubs look a lot different from when they last meet back in 2013, when Peyton Manning’s Broncos out-dueled Tony Romo’s Cowboys, 51-48. This matchup features a pair of mobile quarterbacks in Dallas’ Dak Prescott and Denver’s Trevor Siemian, who looked decent in Monday’s 24-21 win over the Chargers.
By the numbers: Denver is on an 11-3 SU run at home, and has covered three of its last four as home underdogs. … Dallas is 6-1 ATS versus non-division opponents.
Alex Smith’s pick: Cowboys, 34-27
San Francisco (0-1) at Seattle (1-0)
Time: 1:25 p.m.
Line/Total: Seahawks -14, 42
Alex Smith’s analysis: NFC West rivals clash in this afternoon contest that pits one of the weakest offenses in the league in the Niners against a top-10 defense that just held Aaron Rodgers and the Packers to 17 points, albeit in a losing effort. Seattle heads home looking to bounc back versus a club they’ve owned over the years.
By the numbers: Seattle has won seven straight meetings vs. San Francisco while going 6-1 ATS. … The Niners are on a 5-13 ATS skid as a road underdog.
Alex Smith’s pick: Seahawks, 27-6
Green Bay (1-0) at Atlanta (1-0)
Time: 5:30 p.m., KSNV (3)
Line/Total: Falcons -3, 55
Alex Smith’s analysis: This rematch of the 2016 NFC title game won 44-21 by Atlanta won’t feature the same offensive firepower despite both clubs returning most of their key players. The Falcons escaped from the Windy City last week with a 23-17 win over the Bears while the Packers needed a second-half jolt to dispatch Seattle 17-9 at home. Both defenses will be on alert to avoid the big play in this one.
By the numbers: Green Bay is 3-9 ATS in its last 12 games as a road underdog. … Atlanta is 4-5 ATS in its last nine games as a home favorite.
Alex Smith’s pick: Falcons 24-19
Detroit (1-0) at N.Y. Giants (0-1)
Time: 5:30 p.m, Monday, ESPN
Line/Total: Giants -3, 42.5
Alex Smith’s analysis: The Lions picked up right where they left off in 2016, with another fourth-quarter comeback victory, beating Arizona 35-23. New York is coming off a horrible Sunday night outing, losing 19-3 to rival Dallas in which the G-Men were held to just 35 yards rushing. Detroit’s new big-play threat, wide receiver Kenny Golladay, may be in for a repeat performance in front of a national audience. But the return of Giants wideout Odell Beckham Jr. could be a difference maker.
By the numbers: The Giants are on a 8-5 ATS run, but are just 2-9-1 ATS after playing Dallas. … Detroit is 3-8-1 ATS on “Monday Night Football” and just 4-9 ATS as a road underdog versus non-division opponents.
Alex Smith’s pick: Giants, 23-20
