Sandoval goes from silent to all in on Perry

Now, it’s on. Gov. Brian Sandoval, who had thus far abstained from choosing sides in the Republican presidential contest, announced Tuesday he’d endorse Texas Gov. Rick Perry.

“Our nation needs a leader in the White House who understands the role of government and our economy,” Sandoval said in a statement. “Governor Rick Perry has the strongest record of job creation, fiscal discipline, and executive-branch leadership among the presidential candidates.

“As a governor, Rick Perry created a tremendous blueprint for job creation and as president, I know he will get America working again.”

As a political move, the endorsement carries a lot of risk for the popular (and cautious) Sandoval. And lest you think he’s doing it to earn a spot on the national ticket as vice president, recall that he’s pledged to serve every day of his current four-year term that doesn’t expire until 2014.

Although a recent Magellan Strategies poll put Perry ahead of former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, Romney has long dominated the Silver State. He won the 2008 presidential caucus here, largely due to the strength and near-perfect turnout of fellow members of the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints.

After ex-Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee won the Iowa caucus, and Arizona U.S. Sen. John McCain took the New Hampshire primary, Romney’s 2008 Nevada win helped show he was a viable candidate. And even though McCain took South Carolina immediately thereafter, Romney hung with him to the very end of the Republican process, winning 11 states.

And Romney didn’t just win Nevada, he took 51 percent of the vote, with Texas Congressman Ron Paul running a distant second.

Romney hasn’t taken Nevada for granted this time around, either. (Unlike in 2008, when the primary was a winner-take-all affair, Nevada’s Republicans have changed the rules to allow candidates to keep all the delegates they earn in the caucus.) And Romney has visited Nevada more than any other candidate, most recently last week to unveil his jobs plan. He’s re-hired his 2008 strategist, Ryan Erwin, who knows how to win races, having guided Lt. Gov. Brian Krolicki and Congressman Joe Heck to victories in 2010.

The problem for Sandoval is this: If Romney repeats his 2008 performance, even if he has to share some delegates with Perry, the governor loses face.

To make sure that doesn’t happen, Perry is reportedly engaging the services of R&R Partners’s Pete Ernaut, who in 2000 helped another Texas governor, George W. Bush, win Nevada on his way to the White House. Longtime Nevada consultant Mike Slanker is also reportedly on board. Together, Ernaut and Slanker — who advised Sandoval in his race for the governor’s mansion last year — make a formidable pair. (It doesn’t hurt that Slanker and Erwin used to be partners, which should serve to keep both on their toes.) And Texas-based TV ad guru David Weeks, who has done work for both Perry and Sandoval, completes the Perry triumvirate.

But Perry has an uphill climb in Nevada. First, he’s nowhere near as well known as Romney. Second, even though Romney has been known to change his mind a time or two, he wasn’t a Democrat in 1988 and he didn’t chair his state for would-be President Al Gore, as Perry did in Texas. That may not sit well with Nevada’s more conservative types, at least until Perry reminds them that former President Ronald Reagan started out as a Democrat, too. Third, as more about Perry’s record in Texas comes under attack by rivals, his meteoric rise in the polls will necessarily come down.

For Sandoval’s first major foray into national politics, it’s definitely a risk.

 Steve Sebelius is author of the blog SlashPolitics.com. Follow him on Twitter at www.Twitter.com/SteveSebelius or reach him at 387-5276 or SSebelius@reviewjournal.com.