Are we doomed again?

Welcome to the 2015 Legislature. Use whatever doom metaphor you’d prefer.

By now, comparisons to 2003 are so often made, they’re nearly cliches. A popular Republican governor re-elected to a second and final term, having not mentioned tax increases on the campaign trail but embracing the idea vigorously in his State of the State address. An aggressive Republican contingent in the Assembly vowing to oppose taxes and kill the governor’s idea. Fears of gridlock mount; schools wait for relief.

We’ve seen this movie before, and it didn’t end well the first time: Two special sessions, a lawsuit, a horrible, since-repudiated Nevada Supreme Court ruling, tempers flaring until finally the Republican coalition cracked and a single vote provided the vote that allowed schools to open on time.

But a long-term solution it was not. And now we find ourselves in the exact same position.

Gov. Brian Sandoval’s preferred alternative — an increase in the business license fee that’s progressive, depending upon a company’s gross receipts — was detailed at a Thursday briefing. Even as the governor declared he was ready to defend the plan, it came under attack from the usual suspects. “Complex, destructive, unnecessary,” declared the Nevada Policy Research Institute. “The [modified business tax] is the fairest and most equitable business tax in the United States,” businessman Monte Miller told journalist Jon Ralston. And business groups such as the Las Vegas Metro Chamber of Commerce, the Las Vegas Global Economic Alliance and the Nevada Taxpayers Association all say they want to study the details of the governor’s plan before taking a position.

Raising taxes in Nevada is difficult. First, there’s the institutional inertia built into the system: the Legislature meets for four months every other year, and the complex process of bill writing, debating and passage is fraught with pitfalls and trapdoors. Second, any vote to increase public revenue requires a two-thirds supermajority in both houses of the Legislature. And add a third: The members of the new Assembly Republican majority determined to thwart any tax increase. Even if they don’t have the numbers to block the increase under the two-thirds rule, they can certainly draw attention to the issue and pressure their colleagues.

We’ve seen this movie before, and it didn’t end well the first time.

But there is at least one thing that’s different about 2015 than 2003. Since that time, an entire generation of students has matriculated through Nevada’s public schools. Some studied hard, learned things, graduated and went on to college and a career. But many others struggled and didn’t do as well. Some faced challenges they couldn’t overcome, challenges that, with more creativity, more talented teachers and yes, more money, we could have fixed.

Some of those students dropped out and face lives much worse than they would have otherwise. Those failures belong to all of us, because during all that time, we fought battles, wrote op-eds, talked past each other and failed to keep their young lives and our society’s common obligation to their future in mind. We failed them, and ourselves. Big companies with good jobs at the ready often say they eschew Nevada because it lacks the workforce they need to succeed. That’s a direct result of our education system, and it won’t change until schools get better.

There are plenty of reasons to be pessimistic about the 2015 session, the lesson of 2003 first among them. But there’s also the instinct to hope that this time, a committed governor and people of both parties who feel an obligation to see the state do better for its children will accomplish what they couldn’t in 2003. There’s the hope that 12 years from now, the metaphor won’t be doom, but promise.

Let’s make this one count, if we can.

Steve Sebelius is a Las Vegas Review-Journal political columnist who blogs at SlashPolitics.com. Follow him on Twitter (@SteveSebelius) or reach him at 702-387-5276 or SSebelius@reviewjournal.com.