What must Golden Knights do to make NHL playoffs?

By Ben Gotz

Las Vegas Review-Journal

3 years ago

Winnipeg Jets' Adam Brooks (77) gets a stick up in his jersey from Vegas Golden Knights' Zachar ... — Winnipeg Jets’ Adam Brooks (77) gets a stick up in his jersey from Vegas Golden Knights’ Zachary Hayes (65) during the third period of an NHL hockey game in Winnipeg, Manitoba, Tuesday, March 22, 2022. (Fred Greenslade/The Canadian Press via AP)

Vegas Golden Knights’ William Carrier (28) falls over Winnipeg Jets’ Nate Schmidt (88) during the third period of an NHL hockey game in Winnipeg, Manitoba, Tuesday, March 22, 2022. (Fred Greenslade/The Canadian Press via AP)

Winnipeg Jets goaltender Connor Hellebuyck (37) makes a save on Vegas Golden Knights’ Keegan Kolesar (55) during the third period of an NHL hockey game in Winnipeg, Manitoba, Tuesday, March 22, 2022. (Fred Greenslade/The Canadian Press via AP)

Winnipeg Jets’ Josh Morrissey (44) and Vegas Golden Knights’ Jack Eichel (9) collide into goaltender Connor Hellebuyck (37) during the third period of an NHL hockey game in Winnipeg, Manitoba, Tuesday, March 22, 2022. (Fred Greenslade/The Canadian Press via AP)

Winnipeg Jets’ Nikolaj Ehlers (27) is checked by Vegas Golden Knights’ Nolan Patrick (41) during the third period of an NHL hockey game in Winnipeg, Manitoba, Tuesday, March 22, 2022. (Fred Greenslade/The Canadian Press via AP)

Vegas Golden Knights’ goaltender Logan Thompson (36) makes a save on Winnipeg Jets’ Paul Stastny (25) during the third period of an NHL hockey game in Winnipeg, Manitoba, Tuesday, March 22, 2022. (Fred Greenslade/The Canadian Press via AP)

The clock is ticking on the Golden Knights.

The team has 16 games remaining in the regular season, and the possibility that could be the end of its season is real. The Knights woke up Wednesday out of the NHL playoff picture by points and 10th in the Western Conference standings by points percentage (.545).

They need to leapfrog two teams to get into a wild-card spot, or either Los Angeles or Edmonton to get one of the three guaranteed playoff berths in the Pacific Division.

It’s not going to be easy. In fact, projection systems view it as unlikely. But the Knights, even with six players on injured reserve and two in the NHL’s COVID-19 protocol, still have a path to making the playoffs for the fifth consecutive season.

It just means they’re going to have little margin for error the rest of the way, starting with Thursday’s game against the Nashville Predators at T-Mobile Arena.

“We’ve got to (rack) up some wins,” left wing Jonathan Marchessault said.

The Knights’ chances of making the playoffs depend on the source. Data website FiveThirtyEight gives them a 38 percent chance, ninth-best in the Western Conference behind Dallas at 78 percent. NHL analytics website MoneyPuck has them at 37 percent, with Dallas at 74 percent.

Regardless of the odds, the Knights are playing catch-up with 72 points from 66 games. They are six points behind the Kings for second place in the Pacific, and Los Angeles has a game in hand. The third-place Oilers are three points ahead of the Knights with two games in hand.

Things aren’t much better in the wild-card picture. Nashville is six points ahead of the Knights with two games in hand in the first wild-card spot. Dallas is in the second wild-card position after its comeback win over Edmonton on Tuesday. The Knights trail the Stars by a point, and Dallas has four games in hand.

Winnipeg also is lurking. The Jets, after beating the Knights twice at home in the past nine days, are ninth in the Western Conference in points percentage at .547.

“We’re in the mix now,” Winnipeg goaltender Connor Hellebuyck said after shutting out the Knights on Tuesday. “We were always in the mix, but now we’re really in the mix.”

It’s going to be quite the climb for the Knights to get back in the picture. They’re at least somewhat set up to do so. They have the second-easiest remaining schedule in the NHL, according to the website Tankathon. They will play only six projected playoff teams in their final 16 games.

The issue is that some of the teams they’re chasing don’t have a difficult road, either. The Kings have the third-easiest remaining schedule and the Stars the fourth-easiest. Edmonton at least has the fifth-toughest.

But the Knights — 12-16-4 in 2022 and 2-7-0 in their past nine games — have shown little evidence recently that they can take advantage of their schedule. And they’re going to have to pick up a lot of points to even give themselves a chance.

The Kings, who have eight players on injured reserve, will finish with 95 points if they have a .500 points percentage in their remaining 17 games. The Oilers and Stars would finish with 93 points if they play at that same pace.

That means the Knights, to tie the Oilers and Stars in that scenario, would need 21 points from their final 16 games or the equivalent of a 10-5-1 record.

If the Kings, Oilers and Stars maintain their current paces the rest of the season, Los Angeles would finish with 98 points, Dallas 97 and Edmonton 96. So the Knights would need 24 points — or the same as a 12-4 record — to tie the Oilers.

It’s possible Edmonton cannot maintain its .586 points percentage with its schedule. But it has played .700 hockey (12-6-2) under new coach Jay Woodcroft.

No matter what, it’s clear the Knights will need a lot of help to keep their playoff streak alive. And one of their best stretches of hockey this season.

“We’re desperate right now,” defenseman Alex Pietrangelo said Tuesday. “We know where we are in the standings. We know what we have to do to get into the playoffs.”

Contact Ben Gotz at bgotz@reviewjournal.com. Follow @BenSGotz on Twitter.