Vikings’ line is out of whack
The last two weeks, I wrote about how the public has been driving up the price on favorites and creating value on the underdogs. The fact favorites have continued to cover a majority of games (12-4 against the spread in Week 11, 10-5 ATS in Week 12 and 9-7 in Week 13) has continued to give the public the confidence to keep backing the “better teams.” It’s up to handicappers to find the lines that are the most out of whack.
The poster child for inflated lines this week is the Vikings minus-81/2 at the 49ers. The Vikings have become popular thanks in large part to stud running back Adrian Peterson. The Vikes have won and covered three straight games and four of five. Now they’re facing a San Francisco team that is not a treat to watch as the 49ers are last in the league in scoring and yards per game.
But even though it looks like everything is in the Vikings’ favor, they’re a .500 team having to travel to the West Coast and play a team that is more competitive at home. The line value is apparent when considering the advance line on this game a week and a half ago at the Las Vegas Hilton was Vikings minus-3. There’s no reason this line should be overadjusted this much except to balance the action the bookmakers expect from the public on the Vikings.
Other public handicappers — Marc Lawrence, Nick Bogdanovich and Erin Rynning in the Leroy’s Money Talk Invitational — are on the 49ers plus-81/2, so this either is the wise guy play of the week, or we’ll look, well, unwise.
Here are my other four top plays, with lines as of Saturday night (home teams in CAPS):
• Lions (+11) over COWBOYS: This line isn’t as surprising. The Lions have crashed after their 6-2 start and are 6-6 like the Vikings. But while the Vikes are overrated, the Lions shouldn’t be this big of an underdog. Dallas, with the NFC’s top offense, will get its points, but the defense has been vulnerable, giving up 27 points to the Packers 10 days ago (and Aaron Rodgers lit them up) and 23 to the Redskins three weeks back. The Lions, even with wide receiver Roy Williams out, should stay within single digits.
• Raiders (+101/2) over Packers: Despite their loss to Dallas, the Packers have the league’s top spread record at 9-2-1. But the oddsmakers are asking them to cover too many points. Brett Favre is going to start, but he likely is less than 100 percent and forcing himself to play due to his streak plus the fact Rodgers is hurt. The Raiders have beaten the Chiefs and Broncos the past two weeks and could have beaten the Bears and Vikings in the two weeks prior. I’ll take the double-digit ‘dog.
• Giants (+3) over EAGLES: Why is Philadelphia favored here? Sure, it played great against the Patriots two weeks ago, but it is 5-7 compared with the Giants at 8-4 and is coming off a home loss to the Seahawks. The Giants, not counting the 41-17 disaster vs. the Vikings, are better than when they beat the Eagles 16-3 in Week 4. And just because Donovan McNabb is back doesn’t make the Eagles better.
• TEXANS (+3) over Buccaneers: This game was off the board early last week, with the uncertainty of the starting quarterbacks. It looks like Jeff Garcia will start for Tampa Bay and Matt Schaub is out for Houston, but that’s not worth 3 points. Sage Rosenfels has filled in admirably when Schaub has gotten hurt. I would take him over Garcia, who could be rusty after missing most of the last two games.
Last week: 3-2 against the spread
Season: 33-31-1
Las Vegas-based handicapper Dave Tuley also writes for the Daily Racing Form and ViewFromVegas.com.