Take Titans, and forget first week

The Colts and Patriots looked as impressive as expected. The Titans and Packers came up with semi-surprising upsets. The Bears were who we thought they were (as famously said by former Cardinals coach Dennis Green), with a great defense that will keep them in any game but with an offense that can cost them any game. The Chiefs, Browns and Falcons looked as bad as advertised.

Most of those statements would go under the heading “conventional wisdom,” but there’ s a danger in that when it comes to sports betting, especially in the NFL.

It’s up to the seasoned handicapper to find the games in which the oddsmakers and/or the betting public have overreacted to one game.

An old adage says, “A team is never as good as it looks in its best victory nor as bad as it looks in its worst defeat.” But that’s the way people tend to bet based on knee-jerk judgments, and it presents value for the contrarian bettor.

Hopefully that helps me bounce back from last week’s losing mark. Here are my five plays, using lines as of Saturday night (home team in CAPS).

• TITANS (+7) over Colts: Indianapolis blew out the Saints in the season opener, and the line on this game has climbed from 6 to 7, but Vince Young has led the Titans to six outright upsets in their last seven regular-season games.

The Titans ran for 280 yards against the Jaguars’ defense and should do the same versus a Colts team that they gained 219 yards against Dec. 3 in a 20-17 upset on this same field. The Titans also played the then-unbeaten Colts tough in a 14-13 loss at Indy last season.

• Falcons (+10) over JAGUARS: The Falcons looked pathetic in their 24-3 loss to the Vikings last week, and the public has loaded up on the Jaguars despite their loss last week. However, I’m thinking the Falcons didn’t play that bad, as two touchdowns were scored by Minnesota’s defense. If the Falcons take care of the ball better, they should be able to run on the Jaguars and stay in this game.

• Packers (+21/2) over GIANTS: The Packers won ugly against the Eagles and aren’t getting much respect (the only reason this line came down from a field goal was the uncertain status of Eli Manning), but Green Bay is a live dog here against a Giants team that is hurting, literally and figuratively. Brett Favre can light it up against a defense that couldn’t stop Dallas last week.

• DOLPHINS (+4) over Cowboys: I’ll also fade the other team in that Sunday night shootout. The Cowboys lit up the scoreboard but kept letting the Giants back in the game. The Dolphins actually play defense and should pressure Tony Romo into mistakes while, on offense, Trent Green and Chris Chambers might pull off a Manning-Plaxico Burress impersonation. As mediocre as the Dolphins have been recently, they are 4-2 against the spread in their last six games as home underdogs, including a 21-0 victory over the Patriots in December.

• Jets (+10) over RAVENS: This line opened Baltimore minus-7, and I’m glad to see it climb to double digits. There’s not that much difference between the two teams, who both might be without their starting quarterbacks. But while the Jets might not see too much of a dropoff from Chad Pennington to Kellen Clemens, the same can’t be said for Steve McNair to Kyle Boller.

The Ravens also lost offensive tackle Jonathan Ogden, and Ray Lewis is another walking wounded.

Last week: 2-3 against the spread

Las Vegas-based handicapper Dave Tuley also writes for the Daily Racing Form and ViewFromVegas.com.