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Sportsbooks stung as NFL games fly over total in record fashion

Updated October 5, 2020 - 6:40 am

The NFL is piling up points like never before this season.

Through three weeks, teams combined for 51 points per game, the most ever at that stage of the NFL season.

Scoring has been even higher in Week 4, with games averaging 54.2 points and nine totals of 50 or more on the board.

Overs have cashed at a 61 percent clip (36-23-2) this season after going 6-1-1 in the Sunday morning games and 7-4-2 overall this week.

“Bettors continued to do extremely well on the totals. It’s just a crazy clip they’re hitting at,” Sunset Station sportsbook director Chuck Esposito said. “Without crowd noise, you can clearly hear the plays being called, and it’s easy to audible.

“Maybe it has something to do with no preseason. The offenses are way ahead of the defenses.”

In games with totals of at least 50, overs went 3-2-2 on Sunday, and there are two more Monday, with the Patriots-Chiefs total 50 and the Falcons-Packers 57.

“The totals will probably be higher next week,” Westgate sportsbook vice president Jay Kornegay said. “They keep scoring a lot of points.”

Major wagers

A DraftKings bettor won a $1.4 million wager that paid $532,000 on over the adjusted total of 42 (-263) in Cincinnati’s 33-25 victory over Jacksonville. The game soared over the total of 49½.

Another DraftKings bettor hit a $2 million three-team money line parlay that paid $1.1 million when Florida and Tennessee won their college football games Saturday and the Rams held off the Giants, 17-9, on Sunday.

With the Rams clinging to a 10-9 lead midway through the fourth quarter, DraftKings posted on Twitter that “one bettor is sweating out a $2 million parlay right now.”

But as @SteveRoyaltyDFS commented on the post, “If they can put up $2M on a parlay the only sweating they’re doing is on the deck of their 6,500 square foot beach house.”

Survive and advance

Hundreds of contestants in Circa Survivor sweated out Los Angeles’ win, as the Rams were the most popular pick by a landslide. Of the 673 contestants remaining, 464 had the Rams and are still in the running for the $1.39 million prize.

One apparently confused contestant lost his $1,000 entry on Washington, the biggest underdog on the board (+14) that was whipped 31-17 by Baltimore.

Winning day for books

BetMGM, Station and the Westgate reported small winning days Sunday, when underdogs went 6-5-1 ATS with four outright upsets.

Carolina’s 31-21 upset of Arizona as a 3-point underdog was the best game at William Hill and BetMGM, which took straight bets of $300,000 and $230,000 on the Cardinals.

The books also won when Cleveland beat Dallas 49-38 as a 3½-point underdog after blowing most of a 41-14 fourth-quarter lead and when Philadelphia rallied for a 25-20 win over San Francisco as an 8-point underdog on “Sunday Night Football.”

Bettors won big on Buffalo (-3, 30-23 over the Raiders), New Orleans (-3, 35-29 over Detroit) and Seattle (-4½, 31-23 over Miami). The Lions blew an early 14-0 advantage for their third blown double-digit lead in four games.

The Seahawks were the worst decision for William Hill and BetMGM, where a bettor won a $550,000 wager that paid $500,000 on Seattle -6½.

Last leg

Another BetMGM bettor lost a $100,000 five-team parlay to win $599,000 on the last leg.

The gambler hit the first four legs, winning with the Ravens and Rams on the first-half money line and escaping with miracle covers on the Tampa Bay money line and Seattle -3 in the first half. The Buccaneers erased a 24-7 deficit in a 38-31 victory over the Chargers, and the Seahawks drove 75 yards for a touchdown in the final 24 seconds of the half to take a 17-9 halftime lead over Miami.

“You need a little luck to win one of those five-team parlays,” The Mirage sportsbook director Jeff Stoneback said. “They pulled that out and pulled the Bucs out. But the big sweat will be on the basketball game.”

The big ticket came down to the Lakers -5 in the first half over the Heat in Game 3 of the NBA Finals.

Los Angeles dominated the first two games, leading 65-48 at halftime in Game 1 and 68-54 in Game 2. Not this time. Miami led most of the way en route to a 58-54 halftime lead and 115-104 win.

Over bettors could only watch as the Heat dribbled out the final 24 seconds and the game stayed under the total of 220 by one point.

Contact reporter Todd Dewey at tdewey@reviewjournal.com. Follow @tdewey33 on Twitter.

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