Sharp bet comes in on Bills-Chiefs AFC title game: ‘Two elite teams’
Quarterback Josh Allen’s Bills have owned quarterback Patrick Mahomes’ Chiefs in the regular season. But playing Kansas City in the postseason has been akin to a torture chamber for Buffalo.
The two-time defending Super Bowl champion Chiefs have ended the Bills’ season in three of the past four years. They are slight favorites to do so again in the AFC championship game at Arrowhead Stadium.
Kansas City is a consensus 1½-point favorite over Buffalo, which escaped with a 27-25 win over Baltimore in Sunday’s NFL divisional playoff game.
The Westgate SuperBook lowered the Chiefs to 1-point favorites after it took a sharp bet on the Bills +1½ before moving the line back to 1½.
“That game is a lot like the (Bills-Ravens) game,” Westgate vice president of race and sports John Murray said. “Two elite teams. Two elite quarterbacks. It’s just a question of who makes plays when they matter most.
“That’s been Kansas City’s MO. Everybody always criticizes them. But whenever they need to make a play, it seems like they always do. On offense and defense.”
The Bills covered as 1½-point home underdogs to the Ravens after Baltimore tight end Mark Andrews dropped a 2-point conversion pass from quarterback Lamar Jackson that would have tied the game with 1:33 left.
Jackson threw an interception and lost a fumble in the first half and Andrews lost a fumble in the fourth quarter.
“In some ways, (the Bills) were fortunate to win that game because Lamar Jackson had those two bad turnovers in the first half and the drop by Mark Andrews,” Murray said.
The Chiefs advanced to their seventh straight AFC title game Saturday with a 23-14 win over the Texans. Some sportsbooks got middled on the game by an intentional safety in the final seconds by Kansas City, which opened as a 7½-point favorite and closed at -9½.
Fly, Eagles fly
The Eagles are consensus 5-point favorites over the Commanders in the NFC title game. The line opened at 5½ following Philadelphia’s 28-22 win over the Rams on Sunday. The Eagles, who missed two extra points, didn’t cover after they were 6-point favorites during the week and closed -7.
“If early action is any indication, people are definitely enamored with (rookie quarterback) Jayden Daniels and the Commanders,” Red Rock Resort sportsbook director Chuck Esposito said. “I can see some ‘dog money on both games. The Bills beat the Chiefs pretty good in the regular season in Buffalo (30-21 on Nov. 17). … Daniels has had a lot of success against the Eagles this year.”
Daniels threw five touchdown passes, including the game winner with six seconds left, in a thrilling 36-33 victory over Philadelphia in Week 16.
The Eagles are the new 2-1 favorites at the Westgate to win the Super Bowl, followed by the Chiefs (+220), Bills (+240) and Commanders (+750).
“Because they have mathematically, by far, the highest likelihood to be in the game,” Murray said.
Out like a lamb
Washington dealt top seed Detroit and countless bettors a stunning 45-31 loss Saturday. The Commanders closed as low as a 7½-point underdog after the line opened at 10½.
“Washington’s shock win in Detroit was really the difference of the weekend,” Caesars Sportsbook vice president of trading Craig Mucklow said. “Customers were all over the Chiefs once the line opened and the Eagles were also highly fancied, and the marquee matchup of the week was all Buffalo money.
“Overall, a small win for the book based on parlays and having Detroit eliminated. Lions were our second-worst position on the futures.”
Command performance
The Westgate has some liability on Washington to win the NFC title after taking money on it at 50-1.
“Washington to win the NFC is not good for us, but Washington to win the Super Bowl is extremely good for us,” Murray said. “It’s, by far, the biggest winner of the pool.”
The Commanders, who improved from 4-13 last season to 12-5 this season, were as high as 250-1 long shots at Caesars to win the Super Bowl on Sept. 22. After Washington upset Cincinnati a day later to improve to 2-1, it was lowered to 80-1.
A Caesars bettor in Nevada wagered $5,000 to win $135,000 on the Commanders on Jan. 13 to win the Super Bowl at 27-1.
Contact reporter Todd Dewey at tdewey@reviewjournal.com. Follow @tdewey33 on X.