Bettors hammer Giancarlo Stanton’s home run prop

By Todd Dewey

Las Vegas Review-Journal

7 years ago

New York Yankees right fielder Giancarlo Stanton hits a two run home run in the third inning of a spring training baseball game against the Atlanta Braves, Monday, March 26, 2018, in Atlanta. (AP Photo/Todd Kirkland)

New York Yankees’ Aaron Judge, left, and Giancarlo Stanton stretch at baseball spring training camp, Monday, Feb. 19, 2018, in Tampa, Fla. (AP Photo/Lynne Sladky)

New York Yankees’ Aaron Judge, right, hits as Giancarlo Stanton, center, looks on during batting practice before a baseball spring exhibition game against the Detroit Tigers, Wednesday, Feb. 28, 2018, in Tampa, Fla. (AP Photo/Lynne Sladky)

New York Yankees’ Giancarlo Stanton hits a double during the fourth inning of a baseball spring exhibition game against the Detroit Tigers, Wednesday, Feb. 28, 2018, in Tampa, Fla. (AP Photo/Lynne Sladky)

Atlanta Braves first baseman Freddie Freeman watches batting practice before a baseball spring exhibition game against the New York Yankees, Friday, March 2, 2018, in Tampa, Fla. (AP Photo/Lynne Sladky)

New York Mets starting pitcher Noah Syndergaard (34) works against the Washington Nationals during a spring training baseball game Thursday, March 8, 2018, in West Palm Beach, Fla. (AP Photo/John Bazemore)

Oakland Athletics’ Matt Olson reacts after striking out during the second inning of a spring baseball game against the Los Angeles Angels in Mesa, Ariz., Thursday, March 8, 2018. (AP Photo/Chris Carlson)

Los Angles Angels’ Mike Trout, right, scores on an RBI-double by Albert Pujols as Cincinnati Reds catcher Devin Mesoraco looks away during the first inning of a spring training baseball game Monday, March 12, 2018, in Tempe, Ariz. (AP Photo/Matt York)

Oakland Athletics’ Matt Olson reacts after striking out against the San Francisco Giants during the fourth inning of a spring baseball game in Mesa, Ariz., Monday, March 12, 2018. (AP Photo/Chris Carlson)

New York Yankees’ Gary Sanchez, left, celebrates with Aaron Judge, center, and Giancarlo Stanton, right, after Sanchez hit a three-run home run off Pittsburgh Pirates relief pitcher Brett McKinney during the third inning of a spring training baseball game Thursday, March 15, 2018, in Tampa, Fla. (AP Photo/Chris O’Meara)

New York Yankees’ Gary Sanchez follows through on his three-run home run off Pittsburgh Pirates’ Brett McKinney during the third inning of a spring training baseball game Thursday, March 15, 2018, in Tampa, Fla. Yankees’ Aaron Judge, and Giancarlo Stanton scored. Catching for the Pirates is Francisco Cervelli. (AP Photo/Chris O’Meara)

New York Yankees’ Aaron Judge follows the flight of his RBI double off Pittsburgh Pirates starting pitcher Joe Musgrove during the first inning of a spring training baseball game Thursday, March 15, 2018, in Tampa, Fla. Yankees’ Brett Gardner scored on the hit. Catching for the Pirates is Francisco Cervelli. (AP Photo/Chris O’Meara)

New York Yankees’ Aaron Judge takes a pitch from the Pittsburgh Pirates during the fourth inning of a spring training baseball game Thursday, March 15, 2018, in Tampa, Fla. (AP Photo/Chris O’Meara)

Atlanta Braves’ Freddie Freeman bats against the Detroit Tigers in a spring baseball exhibition game, Thursday, March 15, 2018, in Kissimmee, Fla. (AP Photo/John Raoux)

Atlanta Braves’ Freddie Freeman bats against the Detroit Tigers in a spring baseball exhibition game, Thursday, March 15, 2018, in Kissimmee, Fla. (AP Photo/John Raoux)

Houston Astros second baseman Jose Altuve (27) bats against the Washington Nationals during a spring training baseball game Wednesday, March 21, 2018, in West Palm Beach, Fla. (AP Photo/John Bazemore)

Houston Astros second baseman Jose Altuve (27) bats against the Washington Nationals during a spring training baseball game Wednesday, March 21, 2018, in West Palm Beach, Fla. (AP Photo/John Bazemore)

Los Angeles Angels center fielder Mike Trout makes a catch on a ball hit by Los Angeles Dodgers’ Chris Taylor during the first inning of a preseason baseball game Monday, March 26, 2018, in Los Angeles. (AP Photo/Mark J. Terrill)

Washington Nationals right fielder Bryce Harper bats during a spring exhibition baseball game against the Minnesota Twins at Nationals Park, Tuesday, March 27, 2018, in Washington. (AP Photo/Alex Brandon)

Washington Nationals right fielder Bryce Harper prepares to bat during a spring exhibition baseball game against the Minnesota Twins at Nationals Park, Tuesday, March 27, 2018, in Washington. (AP Photo/Alex Brandon)

Washington Nationals right fielder Bryce Harper prepares to bat during a spring exhibition baseball game against the Minnesota Twins at Nationals Park, Tuesday, March 27, 2018, in Washington. (AP Photo/Alex Brandon)

Los Angeles Angels’ Mike Trout smiles during warmups for a preseason baseball game against the Los Angeles Dodgers, Tuesday, March 27, 2018, in Los Angeles. (AP Photo/Jae C. Hong)

In this March 8, 2018, file photo, New York Mets starting pitcher Noah Syndergaard (34) works against the Washington Nationals during a spring training baseball game, in West Palm Beach, Fla. The Mets home opener is scheduled for March 29 against the St. Louis Cardinals.(AP Photo/John Bazemore, File)

New York Yankees’ Gary Sanchez follows through on his three-run home run off Pittsburgh Pirates’ Brett McKinney during the third inning of a spring training baseball game Thursday, March 15, 2018, in Tampa, Fla. Yankees’ Aaron Judge, and Giancarlo Stanton scored. Catching for the Pirates is Francisco Cervelli. (AP Photo/Chris O’Meara)

New York Yankees right fielder Giancarlo Stanton hits a two run home run in the third inning of a spring training baseball game against the Atlanta Braves, Monday, March 26, 2018, in Atlanta. (AP Photo/Todd Kirkland)

New York Yankees right fielder Giancarlo Stanton reacts after hitting a two run homer in the third inning of a spring training baseball game against the Atlanta Braves, Monday, March 26, 2018, in Atlanta. (AP Photo/Todd Kirkland)

New York Yankees’ Giancarlo Stanton is congratulated after scoring on a single hit by Didi Gregorius during the fifth inning of a baseball spring exhibition game against the Atlanta Braves, Friday, March 2, 2018, in Tampa, Fla. (AP Photo/Lynne Sladky)

New York Yankees’ Giancarlo Stanton runs after hitting a double during the first inning of a baseball spring exhibition game against the Atlanta Braves, Friday, March 2, 2018, in Tampa, Fla. (AP Photo/Lynne Sladky)

Chicks aren’t the only ones who dig the long ball. Bettors do, too, and they’re all over Giancarlo Stanton to surpass his home run total in his first season as a New York Yankee.

The Westgate sports book opened Stanton’s total at 39½, and it had soared to 43½ as of Tuesday — two days before all 30 Major League Baseball teams take the field Thursday for Opening Day.

“Everybody loves Stanton, whether it’s your average baseball fan or a sharper guy,” Westgate sports book manager Randy Blum said. “We took a pretty sizable wager from one of our house players on him to go over 40, and then we had one of our sharper guys come right behind him and bet over 40½.

“If he stays healthy, he has a great chance to lead the majors in home runs every year. But health has been a big issue in his past.”

Stanton hit a career-high 59 homers last season for the Miami Marlins while playing in a career-high 159 games. It was only the third time in his eight-year career that he played in at least 145 games, and it was the first time he topped 37 homers.

Bronx tale of the tape

Stanton is the 3-1 favorite to lead the majors in homers, while Aaron Judge, his new bash brother in the Bronx, is the 6-1 second choice. Judge hit an American League-leading 52 homers last season in his rookie year for the Yankees.

For a sleeper pick, handicapper Micah Roberts recommends Washington Nationals right fielder Bryce Harper at 20-1.

“I can totally see him (winning). Just with his stroke, he should be able to hit 42 home runs,” said Roberts (Sportsline.com). “If Stanton stays healthy and plays 150 games, then he wins the home run title. It’s not even close. But that’s part of the bet. You’re betting that he won’t.”

Under and under again

Injuries are the primary reason professional sports bettor Frank Carulli recommends betting under on every individual player prop posted at Las Vegas sports books. But it would require a big bankroll to do so considering there are 82 such props at the Westgate alone.

“You’ll win money at the end of the year because you’ll win 10 or 15 of them on injuries,” he said.

To cut the card in half, Carulli suggests betting under on all 39 individual home run totals.

“You’re getting good numbers on that because the public likes to play overs, and the books have been getting beat in that category so the totals will be inflated,” he said.

Court in recess?

Judge’s total is 36½, and Westgate sports book manager Ed Salmons expects him to regress in his second season.

“There’s no doubt,” he said. “A lot of time the second year is the big adjustment year. There are scouting reports out there now. Great players are able to adjust, but sometimes you’ll see a guy hit 50 one year and 28 the next year.”

And he’s not talking about Brady Anderson.

Blum’s home run king sleeper is Freddie Freeman (50-1).

Smart plays

The Westgate took sharp money on New York Mets right-hander Noah Syndergaard to win the National League Cy Young at 10-1 shortly after the odds were posted, and Blum said the same sharp bettor placed a wager on Los Angeles Angels outfielder Mike Trout at 9-5 odds to win the AL MVP.

“It’s Trout’s award to lose, for sure,” Blum said.

Trout has since been moved to an even-money favorite, and Syndergaard is now the 4-1 third choice.

Best bets

If Trout stumbles, Blum likes Cleveland Indians shortstop Francisco Lindor (10-1) to win the AL MVP. He also likes Indians right-hander Carlos Carrasco (6-1) to win the AL Cy Young.

For an NL Cy Young long shot, Roberts recommends Milwaukee Brewers right-hander Chase Anderson (80-1). The former Las Vegas sports book director also loves Houston Astros second baseman Jose Altuve to go over 194½ hits for the fifth consecutive season.

“The guy stays healthy. Even when he’s hurt, he plays,” Roberts said. “He’s approaching that Pete Rose-and-Wade Boggs-type (consistency). He has the same numbers every year. He’s incredible.”

Will the Diamondbacks and Giants make the playoffs?

Roberts is betting no (minus 130) on Arizona and yes (plus 350) on Francisco despite the fact that star pitcher Madison Bumgarner is out indefinitely with a broken hand.

More betting: Follow all of our sports betting coverage online at reviewjournal.com/betting and @RJ_Sports on Twitter.

Contact reporter Todd Dewey at tdewey@reviewjournal.com. Follow @tdewey33 on Twitter.

Exit mobile version