Bettors hammer Giancarlo Stanton’s home run prop
Chicks aren’t the only ones who dig the long ball. Bettors do, too, and they’re all over Giancarlo Stanton to surpass his home run total in his first season as a New York Yankee.
The Westgate sports book opened Stanton’s total at 39½, and it had soared to 43½ as of Tuesday — two days before all 30 Major League Baseball teams take the field Thursday for Opening Day.
“Everybody loves Stanton, whether it’s your average baseball fan or a sharper guy,” Westgate sports book manager Randy Blum said. “We took a pretty sizable wager from one of our house players on him to go over 40, and then we had one of our sharper guys come right behind him and bet over 40½.
“If he stays healthy, he has a great chance to lead the majors in home runs every year. But health has been a big issue in his past.”
Stanton hit a career-high 59 homers last season for the Miami Marlins while playing in a career-high 159 games. It was only the third time in his eight-year career that he played in at least 145 games, and it was the first time he topped 37 homers.
Bronx tale of the tape
Stanton is the 3-1 favorite to lead the majors in homers, while Aaron Judge, his new bash brother in the Bronx, is the 6-1 second choice. Judge hit an American League-leading 52 homers last season in his rookie year for the Yankees.
For a sleeper pick, handicapper Micah Roberts recommends Washington Nationals right fielder Bryce Harper at 20-1.
“I can totally see him (winning). Just with his stroke, he should be able to hit 42 home runs,” said Roberts (Sportsline.com). “If Stanton stays healthy and plays 150 games, then he wins the home run title. It’s not even close. But that’s part of the bet. You’re betting that he won’t.”
Under and under again
Injuries are the primary reason professional sports bettor Frank Carulli recommends betting under on every individual player prop posted at Las Vegas sports books. But it would require a big bankroll to do so considering there are 82 such props at the Westgate alone.
“You’ll win money at the end of the year because you’ll win 10 or 15 of them on injuries,” he said.
To cut the card in half, Carulli suggests betting under on all 39 individual home run totals.
“You’re getting good numbers on that because the public likes to play overs, and the books have been getting beat in that category so the totals will be inflated,” he said.
Court in recess?
Judge’s total is 36½, and Westgate sports book manager Ed Salmons expects him to regress in his second season.
“There’s no doubt,” he said. “A lot of time the second year is the big adjustment year. There are scouting reports out there now. Great players are able to adjust, but sometimes you’ll see a guy hit 50 one year and 28 the next year.”
And he’s not talking about Brady Anderson.
Blum’s home run king sleeper is Freddie Freeman (50-1).
Smart plays
The Westgate took sharp money on New York Mets right-hander Noah Syndergaard to win the National League Cy Young at 10-1 shortly after the odds were posted, and Blum said the same sharp bettor placed a wager on Los Angeles Angels outfielder Mike Trout at 9-5 odds to win the AL MVP.
“It’s Trout’s award to lose, for sure,” Blum said.
Trout has since been moved to an even-money favorite, and Syndergaard is now the 4-1 third choice.
Best bets
If Trout stumbles, Blum likes Cleveland Indians shortstop Francisco Lindor (10-1) to win the AL MVP. He also likes Indians right-hander Carlos Carrasco (6-1) to win the AL Cy Young.
For an NL Cy Young long shot, Roberts recommends Milwaukee Brewers right-hander Chase Anderson (80-1). The former Las Vegas sports book director also loves Houston Astros second baseman Jose Altuve to go over 194½ hits for the fifth consecutive season.
“The guy stays healthy. Even when he’s hurt, he plays,” Roberts said. “He’s approaching that Pete Rose-and-Wade Boggs-type (consistency). He has the same numbers every year. He’s incredible.”
Will the Diamondbacks and Giants make the playoffs?
Roberts is betting no (minus 130) on Arizona and yes (plus 350) on Francisco despite the fact that star pitcher Madison Bumgarner is out indefinitely with a broken hand.
More betting: Follow all of our sports betting coverage online at reviewjournal.com/betting and @RJ_Sports on Twitter.
Contact reporter Todd Dewey at tdewey@reviewjournal.com. Follow @tdewey33 on Twitter.
