Best bets for tricky NFL Week 18: Must-win doesn’t mean must-cover
Welcome to NFL Week 18, where bettors should beware of backing teams simply because they must win to make the playoffs.
“The public likes to bet on the teams that need to win, and the wiseguys generally do the opposite,” Westgate SuperBook vice president of risk Ed Salmons said. “Some of these teams playing for nothing play well, and some that must win don’t cover.”
The Steelers-Ravens game is a perfect case in point.
Pittsburgh must win and and get some help to make the playoffs, while the matchup is essentially meaningless to Baltimore (13-3), which has already clinched the AFC’s top playoff seed and will sit quarterback Lamar Jackson, the heavy favorite to be NFL MVP.
That explains why the Steelers are consensus 4-point road favorites over the Ravens, who Salmons said would be 7½- or 8½-point favorites if they were playing for the No. 1 seed.
“The line is telling you all the information is baked in already,” Caesars Sportsbook assistant director of trading Adam Pullen said. “It’s not like you’re getting any value just because Lamar Jackson is not playing.
“You might get the result in the end, but it’s just not that easy to bet the team with more on the line. If it was that easy, we could all retire.”
The Westgate took sharp bets on Baltimore +4, and SuperBook vice president Jay Kornegay also likes the Ravens to cover behind backup quarterback Tyler Huntley.
“Huntley will be just fine back there,” he said.
Kornegay has clinched the Review-Journal NFL Challenge title with a 56-23-6 ATS record (70.9 percent) that would be good for first place in the Westgate SuperContest and second place in the Circa Sports Million contest.
“I know it’s a meaningless game for the Ravens. But I’ve seen plenty of times where those really good teams, despite playing in a meaningless game, play well,” Kornegay said. “And getting 4 at home is a bonus.
“I’m not a believer in the Steelers laying points against the Ravens, even though it means nothing to them. I think it’s going to be a very close game.”
The Packers can clinch a postseason berth with a win or help, while the Bears have been eliminated from playoff contention. But Green Bay is only a 3-point favorite at Lambeau Field over Chicago, another sharp side.
“The spread tells you what we think about Chicago, because Green Bay has to win,” Salmons said. “Right now, the Bears are playing as good as anyone in the league.”
Chicago has won four of its last five games and is riding a 6-1-1 streak against the spread. The biggest NFL bet yet this week at Caesars is $55,000 on the Bears +3.
Rest stop
Teams that can’t improve their playoff seeding and are resting starters include the 49ers (-4 over Rams), Browns (+7 at Cincinnati) and Chiefs (+3½ at Chargers).
Starting quarterbacks sitting out include San Francisco’s Brock Purdy, Kansas City’s Patrick Mahomes and Cleveland’s Joe Flacco.
The Rams, who will be seeded either sixth or seventh, also are resting starters, including quarterback Matthew Stafford.
Best bet
In the week’s marquee matchup for the AFC East title, the Bills are 3-point road favorites over the Dolphins on “Sunday Night Football.”
Buffalo, which could still miss the playoffs with a loss, has won four straight games and beat Miami 48-20 in Week 4. The Dolphins were whipped 56-19 last week at Baltimore.
“It’s two teams going in different directions,” Pullen said. “The Bills are trending upward, and the Dolphins are trending downward. Everybody is on that Bills bandwagon. They’ve played better as the year’s progressed.”
Not everybody is on Buffalo’s bandwagon. GambLou.com handicapper Lou Finocchiaro, tied for third place in the RJ Challenge (44-39-2 ATS), made the Dolphins his best bet.
“Making best bets early in Week 18 is harrowing,” he said. “However, considering divisional familiarity and hatred, anything is possible.
“Miami has the opportunity to earn its first division title since 2008. Potential weather, a home crowd and a dynamic advantage in special teams together tilt the turf to the fish Sunday night.”
Super Bowl prop
Circa Sports posted an intriguing prop this week: Will the 49ers or Ravens win the Super Bowl? Yes and no are each -115.
Contact reporter Todd Dewey at tdewey@reviewjournal.com. Follow @tdewey33 on X.