Who’s capable of Derby upset against Big Brown?
I was at Sam’s Town on Thursday playing in a qualifier for the 2009 Horseplayer World Series. Thank goodness my donation was only $100. I was asked more than once who I like in the Kentucky Derby. My answer is “I don’t know.”
I am holding one future book bet, on Visionaire at 150-1 odds. I would like his chances a lot better if he wasn’t on the bubble just to make the Derby field. The Daily Racing Form has Visionaire ranked 20th in graded stakes earnings with one more prep to run, the Coolmore Lexington on Saturday at Keeneland. We’ll see.
The one thing is clear: Big Brown will be the favorite. I think he’ll go off at 3-1 odds or less. Does he have to win? In the Derby, it has been proven you are better off trying to beat the chalk.
The next question is who is capable of pulling the upset?
One rule of thumb that I like to see in a Derby contender’s resume is at least one two-turn race with a Beyer speed figure of 100 or more. Among Derby winners since 1992, when Beyers were first printed in the Daily Racing Form, only Sea Hero (1993) has failed that measure.
Outside of Big Brown, who ran a 106 in winning the Florida Derby, the other qualifiers are Gayego, Pyro, Recapturetheglory, War Pass and Z Fortune. That’s not many from a likely 20-horse field. In fact, this is looking like one of the slower Derby fields in quite awhile.
Let’s take a look at this quintet.
Gayego improved the stock of all Southern California hopefuls in winning the Arkansas Derby. His 103 Beyer was legit. It also proved that a synthetic surface runner can transfer his ability to a regular dirt track.
Pyro ran a miserable 10th in the Blue Grass over Keeneland’s Polytrack. The race was so poor it didn’t look as if he extended himself at any point. If you liked Pyro before the Blue Grass, don’t give up. His Derby odds probably tripled after the race.
Recapturetheglory came out of nowhere to wire the field in the Illinois Derby. Any resemblance to War Emblem, who also won the Illinois Derby, then the Kentucky Derby, is happenstance. The early pace at Churchill Downs will be a lot faster.
War Pass rebounded to run second in the Wood Memorial. However, he is another speed horse among many speedball types in this Derby field. A fast pace could melt all the front-runners.
Finally, Z Fortune rallied from far back to finish second to Gayego at Oaklawn Park. His closing style could be well suited to this Derby, and he’ll be a huge price.
Richard Eng’s horse racing column is published Friday. He can be reached at rich_eng@hotmail.com.