Kentucky Derby favorites not so clear-cut
The Kentucky Derby field will come into focus over the next two weeks. Five major prep races will feature about 50 3-year-olds hoping to be among the 20 to run in the Derby at Churchill Downs on May 3.
Three preps on Saturday are the Wood Memorial at Aqueduct, the Santa Anita Derby and the Illinois Derby at Hawthorne. Two more on April 12 will be the Toyota Blue Grass at Keeneland and the Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn Park.
The Kentucky Derby rule that limits the field to the top 20 horses in graded earnings probably will come into play. The latest list of possible Derby contenders released by the Churchill publicity department based on graded earnings includes 56 horses.
Despite big wins by Big Brown in the Florida Derby and Pyro in the Louisiana Derby that make them clear-cut Derby favorites, no one else seems to be intimidated. There are two reasons.
Big Brown, undefeated in three starts, will be trying to win the Kentucky Derby in just his fourth career start. Only one horse, the filly Regret in 1915, has been able to do that in the 133-year history of the race.
Even though Pyro has won two stakes handily this spring, many experts have panned his wins as too slow. Pyro will start as a strong favorite in the Toyota Blue Grass on April 12.
It’s acceptable this time of year for owners and trainers to chase fool’s gold. A good 3-year-old has one chance to win the Derby. As we saw in 2005 when a 50-1 long shot named Giacomo won, strange things can happen.
In the Wood, champion 2-year-old War Pass is hoping to rebound from a dismal last-place finish in the Tampa Bay Derby. A sharp win would put him back up with Big Brown and Pyro. Court Vision and Tale of Ekati are his most likely threats.
In the Illinois Derby, undefeated Denis of Cork will be heavily favored. But I like the upset chances of Golden Spikes, trained by underrated Marty Wolfson.
Finally, I think Colonel John and El Gato Malo have been the two best California-based Derby colts. They can prove that in the Santa Anita Derby.
• FUTURE WAGER — Pool 3 of the Kentucky Derby Future Wager is this weekend. Big Brown, who was not listed in Pool 1 or 2, is favored in Pool 3. It’ll be hard to find much value because the pool closes on Sunday, long after Saturday’s three Derby preps are run.
Richard Eng’s horse racing column is published Friday. He can be reached at rich_eng@hotmail.com.