Do homework now for Breeders’ Cup

The BC races are so contentious that long-shot horses often will run over favorites. Knowing that, we still make the common error of relying upon logical horses from top trainers to run well at underlaid odds. Quite honestly, you should be trying to beat those kinds of horses.

Take a look at the sobering win percentages of these top trainers in the BC: Bobby Frankel, 4-for-68, 5.8 percent; Aiden O’Brien, 3-for-39, 7.7 percent; Todd Pletcher, 2-for-41, 4.8 percent; Bob Baffert, 3-for-44, 6.8 percent; Saeed bin Suroor, 2-for-26, 7.7 percent; Nick Zito, 1-for-29, 3.4 percent; and Patrick Biancone, 0-for-19.

These trainers typically win at a 20 percent clip during the year. Why the big drop-off for the BC? One theory is the event brings them down to earth. It takes away one of their major strengths: expert management of their stable.

How many times have you seen these super trainers start an odds-on favorite in a small stakes field? In the BC, they don’t have that luxury. Each race is a brawl where nearly every horse has a chance. Once again, their horses figure to be overbet.

Two things you should do before next week will improve your chances of winning on BC day. First, pick up the Daily Racing Form BC Advance edition and handicap the horses. Then, when the post positions are drawn, you’ll be familiar with the fields, making it easier to visualize how the races will be run.

Second, become familiar with the wagering menu so you take advantage of your advance handicapping. For example, 10-cent superfectas are being offered for the first time. Budget your bankroll so you can bet dimes to win lots of dollars. Also, rolling Pick Threes are another efficient investment.

Just remember, the more work you do now, the luckier you might get on BC day.

• BC SEMINARS — There will be two free BC handicapping seminars next week featuring top local handicappers. Gordon Jones, Patrick McQuiggan and John Kelly will dissect the BC races in the new Sam’s Town race book at 5 p.m. on Oct. 26. Then Jon Lindo and Ralph Siraco will preview the BC card at 7 a.m. on Oct. 27 in The Orleans’ Mardi Gras ballroom.

• PICK THE PONIES — Las Vegas Hilton executive race and sports book director Jay Kornegay announced that next week’s Pick the Ponies tournament is a sellout. While the Coast Casino tournaments do not limit their entries, the Hilton caps its at 200.

Keep that in mind for the three 2008 Pick the Ponies contests.

Richard Eng’s horse racing column is published Fridays. He can be reached at rich_eng@hotmail.com.