Desormeaux can learn from previous mistakes
Nothing is more compelling in sports than a Belmont Stakes with a Triple Crown on the line. It’s much different from Game 7 of a championship final. While a title game ebbs and flows over many hours, the Belmont, after a three-week media buildup, is over in 150 seconds. It’s a lightning bolt of an adrenaline rush.
On Saturday, Big Brown will try to become the first Triple Crown champion in 30 years. Since Affirmed did it last in 1978, 10 horses have won the Kentucky Derby and Preakness, only to lose in the Belmont.
Jockey error has accounted for a few of the 10 losses. If Ronnie Franklin (Spectacular Bid), Kent Desormeaux (Real Quiet) and Stewart Elliott (Smarty Jones) had a chance to do it over again, they would not have moved prematurely.
Desormeaux has a chance to learn from his previous mistakes Saturday on Big Brown. As Gary Stevens once said, a key to winning the Belmont is to wait, wait and wait some more.
A jockey who practiced that strategy in winning two Belmonts is Edgar Prado. Prado has the mount on Casino Drive, the second choice in the Belmont morning line.
Prado stopped the Triple Crown runs of War Emblem and Smarty Jones aboard two big long shots — Sarava (2002) and Birdstone (2004). Prado did not ride the best horse, but he rode the smartest race.
I’m on record that Big Brown will win the Belmont and the Triple Crown. Desormeaux needs to sit like a statue on Big Brown until the quarter pole, then go. And I’ll agree with the jockey that the Belmont is a cold exacta, Big Brown to Casino Drive.
Casino Drive is the half-brother to the last two Belmont winners — Rags to Riches and Jazil. His trainer, Kazuo Fujisawa, is the Japanese version of Charlie Whittingham. You know about Prado. If Casino Drive can repeat his winning race from the Peter Pan, he can test Big Brown.
The way I’ll bet the Belmont will be to key Big Brown to win and Casino Drive for second, with Macho Again, Denis of Cork and Tale of Ekati for third and fourth in a superfecta. I’ll also reverse it using Casino Drive for third and putting the other three horses in the second and fourth positions. I’ll also key a trifecta of Big Brown over Casino Drive and Denis of Cork.
• HANDICAPPING SEMINARS — A free Belmont Stakes handicapping seminar will be at 6 p.m. today at Sam’s Town featuring Gordon Jones, Patrick McQuiggan and John Kelly.
Tom Quigley, publisher of The Horseplayer magazine, and I will be doing a daylong analysis of the Belmont Stakes card Saturday at Mohegan Sun casino in Connecticut.
Richard Eng’s horse racing column is published Friday. He can be reached at rich_eng@hotmail.com.