USC loaded but might be getting too much love

Barkley is almost college football’s version of Tom Brady. Winning the Emerald Bowl is just not as cool as winning three Super Bowls.

The one thing Barkley has yet to get is a title. But if the betting majority is on the money, the Trojans deserve to be the favorites to win it all this season.

“There are three times as many tickets on USC than on the second-most popular team,” LVH sports book director Jay Kornegay said.

Futures tickets on the Trojans are accumulating at the pace of an avalanche that is burying even defending national champion Alabama. The odds on USC to win the Bowl Championship Series title opened at 8-1 and are down to 3-1.

Los Angeles lacks an NFL team, but the Jacksonville Jaguars don’t have a quarterback as talented as Barkley, who passed for 39 touchdowns with only seven interceptions last season.

The Trojans finished 10-2, losing to Stanford in three overtimes and beating Oregon on the road, in Barkley’s junior year and return 16 starters.

“USC is the real deal,” said former oddsmaker Kenny White of DonBest.com. “I think they are as good as Alabama.”

Never stifle a sneeze or sneeze at Nick Saban, who can coach circles around Lane Kiffin, Les Miles and almost anyone not named Bill Belichick. If the Trojans have a weakness, other than their defensive line depth, it’s probably Kiffin’s immaturity.

“I need a little bit more convincing about Kiffin,” said handicapper Bruce Marshall of The Gold Sheet. “People are getting a little bit carried away. The hype with USC is a little over the top. Nobody is really talking about Oregon, and I think they should. The bottom line is the Ducks are not going to back up any, and I think Oregon could be better this year.”

Marshall added, “I think there is a danger in getting too in love with a team too early,” and that’s ironic because I recently gave a friend the same advice about a girl.

Barkley will target two outstanding wide receivers – Robert Woods and Marqise Lee – and star running back Curtis McNeal is joined in the backfield by Silas Redd, who Kiffin stole from the sinking ship at Penn State. Still, is USC getting too much love?

“We know USC is loaded and is a very talented team,” Kornegay said. “But there are so many good teams out there, to think it’s free money, I can’t see it.”

The Trojans are followed on the LVH odds board by Alabama (5-1), Louisiana State (6-1) and Oregon (8-1). Florida State and Oklahoma are close behind, though I see Sooners quarterback Landry Jones as overrated and not in Barkley’s class.

USC’s win total for its 12 regular-season games opened at 10½, and the price has moved from under minus-125 to over minus-140. I agree with the money. The Trojans, who are 3-point home favorites over the Ducks on Nov. 3, are a good bet to win 11 games.

Oregon coach Chip Kelly turned down an NFL job offer from Tampa Bay. But there were several major coaching changes across the country, and the two I find most intriguing are at Ohio State (Urban Meyer) and Washington State (Mike Leach).

Although he’s taking over a terrible team, it won’t take long for Leach, briefly exiled after being forced out at Texas Tech, to turn into a cash machine again.

The best coach with the toughest task is Boise State’s Chris Petersen, who lost a four-year starting quarterback and about 14 other starters. White, who does detailed player ratings for every team, has the Broncos as 13 points worse than last year’s 12-1 team.

“Petersen lost so much, it’s going to be surprising if he wins this year,” White said. “But I probably have them rated too low because he’s such a great coach.”

USC might not have a great coach, but it is led by a great quarterback, and the betting public is enamored with Barkley.

“We’ve got a lot of tickets on USC,” Kornegay said. “We’re still waiting for the first bets on Iowa and Wake Forest.”

■ BOTTOM LINES – The most valuable information is free information, especially when it comes from a variety of knowledgeable sources. So today’s LVH “Super Seminar” is an opportunity for football bettors to get the inside story on the college and NFL seasons.

Brian Blessing hosts a welcome reception at 5:30 p.m. Steve Cofield of ESPN Radio moderates a college football panel beginning at 6:30. I’ll be on the college panel with Marshall, White and Dave Cokin.

Former SuperContest winners Steve Fezzik and Brady Kannon will join Chad Millman of ESPN.com on a SuperContest/Sports media panel that starts at 7:30 and is hosted by Dave Tuley of ViewFromVegas.com.

The NFL panel, moderated by Paul Howard, begins at 8:30 and features handicappers Marc Lawrence and Ted Sevransky and radio host JT the Brick.

Contact sports betting columnist Matt Youmans at myoumans@reviewjournal.com or 702-387-2907. He co-hosts “The Las Vegas Sportsline” weekdays at 2 p.m. on ESPN Radio (1100 AM, 98.9 FM). Follow him on Twitter: @mattyoumans247.