Tough to find three wins for UNLV in Sanchez’s first year
Being bad and boring is an unenviable combination for any team, the same way that being dumb, drunk and broke is no way to go through life. The UNLV football team is almost always terrible and rarely entertaining, so that’s why Tony Sanchez was the right hire.
When the same lame approach continues to lose, think outside the box and try something new. Go ahead and gamble by promoting a high school coach who can potentially breathe life into a corpse. It might actually work. At the least, it will be an intriguing story.
The tale of the former Bishop Gorman High coach trying his luck at the college level has caught the attention of the national media. It’s positive publicity for the Rebels, who usually are mocked for being bad and boring.
Sanchez is sort of a laboratory rat. We want to see if this experiment succeeds. It will take time, because no miracles are happening on Maryland Parkway overnight.
“I think Sanchez is going to be great,” Golden Nugget sports book director Tony Miller said, “but he’s just got to get through this year and take his lumps.”
The first fall practice under Sanchez is today, and it’s in Las Vegas, not Ely, so that’s a positive change. Ely is the middle of nowhere, which in the past was a fitting setting for a UNLV football team.
Sanchez is not going to tell his players to expect to get massacred this season and wait until next year, even if that’s what everyone else is thinking. The Rebels play 12 regular-season games, and every sports book has posted their win total at 2 ½.
“My take is the Rebels are going to have their worst team in Sanchez’s history and struggle through it,” Miller said. “But I honestly think, looking at the schedule, they could stumble into three wins. If I was to bet, I would bet it over.”
The Golden Nugget made “Over” 2 ½ the favorite at minus-130. At the Westgate, “Under” 2 ½ is the favorite at minus-150.
“Money just trickles in on both sides, so the line has not moved,” Westgate sports book director Jay Kornegay said, adding a laugh as he looked at UNLV’s first three games.
UNLV is an underdog by a total of 86 points in the first three weeks — plus-21 at Northern Illinois on Sept. 5, plus-32 at home against UCLA and plus-33 at Michigan. So, starting 0-3 is a safe assumption.
“What is troubling for the Rebels is that schedule, especially early,” said The Gold Sheet handicapper Bruce Marshall. “I wonder if that team is going to get really beaten up and won’t be able to recover. It’s going to be tough to get over 2 ½. I think the max might be three wins. If they do better than 3-9, I would be really surprised. Who can they beat?”
* Idaho State (Sept. 26) — This is a huge game for UNLV, and that’s no joke. It’s also no gimme. The winless Rebels should be favored by no more than a touchdown. The Bengals had an explosive offense that averaged 41 points and 562 yards last season. So if his team is getting mauled at Michigan on Sept. 19, Sanchez should pull his starters early and look ahead to this must-win spot.
* At UNR (Oct. 3) — The Wolf Pack will miss quarterback Cody Fajardo, and the jury is out on coach Brian Polian, who often loses his composure with spastic fits on the sideline. This is bad scheduling spot for UNR, which plays at Texas A&M and Buffalo the previous two weeks. The Rebels are 15-point ‘dogs, but they should be live in this rivalry.
* San Jose State (Oct. 10) — The Spartans, 3-9 last season, represent UNLV’s second-best shot at a win. They visit Sam Boyd Stadium one week after getting annihilated at Auburn. “UNLV will be an underdog in every conference game, except maybe San Jose State,” Marshall said.
* At Fresno State (Oct. 16) — The Rebels are 12-point underdogs at the Golden Nugget. But Marshall said the Bulldogs, one of many Mountain West teams with no established quarterback, are “slipping.” There is hope here for Sanchez.
* Boise State (Oct. 31) — No hope. UNLV is a 28 ½-point ‘dog, and covering the spread would be an accomplishment.
* Hawaii (Nov. 7) — Warriors coach Norm Chow has a blue-chip quarterback — Southern California transfer Max Wittek — and he hired offensive coordinator Don Bailey from Idaho State. Still, the Rebels will be fired up for this rivalry, especially after they were robbed in Honolulu last season in an officiating fiasco. This could be close to a pick’em game.
* At Colorado State (Nov. 14) — The new-look Rams, minus coach Jim McElwain and quarterback Garrett Grayson, will take a step back after a 10-win season. But they will not back up enough to drop a home game to the Rebels.
* San Diego State (Nov. 21) — Donnel Pumphrey, who rushed for 1,867 yards as a sophomore, is a big-time runner at 5 feet 9 inches tall. This is a homecoming for the former Canyon Springs High star. The Aztecs are 16-point favorites at the Golden Nugget.
* At Wyoming (Nov. 28) — As an energetic first-year coach, Sanchez will have his team motivated to play hard every week. That’s one reason I suspect the Rebels have a legitimate shot to exceed rock-bottom expectations, and they won’t mail in this finale. The Cowboys, off a four-win season, are a mediocre team in a mediocre conference.
Blake Decker, an error-prone quarterback as a junior, returns to camp looking stronger. He’s one of the league’s elite at the position, believe it or not, and sophomore wideout Devonte Boyd is a playmaker.
Sanchez hired veteran coordinators — Barney Cotton (offense) and Kent Baer (defense) — to help run the team. After last year’s 2-11 train wreck, UNLV might be on the right track.
“The Rebels will never be this bad again,” Miller said, “so it’s nothing but up and better things in the future.”
As for now, a three-win season would be a big success for Sanchez. It’s sad, but true.
Las Vegas Review-Journal sports betting columnist Matt Youmans can be reached at myoumans@reviewjournal.com or 702-387-2907. He co-hosts “The Las Vegas Sportsline” weekdays at 2 p.m. on ESPN Radio (1100 AM). Follow him: @mattyoumans247