Sports books expect bounce-back season from Aaron Rodgers, Packers
On the first day of Green Bay Packers training camp, Aaron Rodgers revealed he has no interest in reality TV. Even while his younger brother spent the summer on “The Bachelorette,” the star quarterback said he never watched.
Some in the media jumped all over the soap opera story angle. Meanwhile, the serious football reporters focused on running back Eddie Lacy’s weight, wide receiver Jordy Nelson’s knees and coach Mike McCarthy’s grumpy demeanor.
Of all the reality shows out there, the NFL rates as the best. Each day offers different characters and surprising storylines, and with 32 training camps opening across the country, we finally can see football season is back.
Are the Packers back to being a serious Super Bowl threat, a year after Nelson went down to injury, Lacy’s weight went way up and Rodgers’ numbers declined?
“The reasons you can like the Packers are Rodgers is still there, and the schedule is conducive to winning a lot of games and getting into the playoffs,” said Matthew Holt, vice president of CG Technology sports books. “But the Packers have not played well against the best teams in the league the past few years, and they have not looked like a team that is ready to win it all.”
Green Bay’s regular-season win total — 11 at CG Technology and 10½ (Over minus-170) at the Westgate — is the highest in the league. It’s so high in part because the Packers’ toughest opponents outside of the NFC North (Dallas, Indianapolis and Seattle) all visit Lambeau Field.
Seven teams won 11 or more games last season. The Packers, who finished 10-6, appear primed to return to an elite level.
“The Packers’ well-established system is built to win 11 games this season. Doubt them at your own risk,” said Bernie Fratto, a former Detroit Lions radio host who is an ESPN Radio analyst in Las Vegas. “Green Bay will face opponents who were a cumulative 118-144 last season. As a result, the .450 winning percentage of their opponents affords the Packers perhaps the easiest schedule in the league.”
Restoring the Rodgers-Nelson connection is more important than the schedule. Nelson missed all of last season after tearing the anterior cruciate ligament in his right knee. Without his favorite target, Rodgers completed 60.7 percent of his passes for 3,821 yards and 31 touchdowns in 2015, when Green Bay ranked 15th in scoring offense (23 points per game).
The Packers were far more explosive in 2014, when Nelson totaled 98 receptions, 1,519 yards and 13 touchdowns. Rodgers’ numbers (65.6 percent completions, 4,381 yards and 38 touchdowns) were far more impressive.
Nelson opened camp this week on the sideline with a left knee issue that he said is minor, and he plans to be ready for Week 1.
“Rodgers is coming off his worst season statistically, and he knows the clock is ticking. But I fully expect him to rebound in a big way,” Fratto said. “Nelson will be back, and the acquisition of tight end Jared Cook could provide the type of matchup menace that Rodgers is brilliant at taking advantage of. In fact, I could see the Packers employing some two-tight end sets this season. Green Bay rarely makes free-agency moves of this nature, so you know they’ll be looking for big production out of Cook.
“The return of Jordy Nelson should excite Randall Cobb, who returns to a more familiar role after he struggled as the No. 1 target last season.”
Lacy, who rushed for only 758 yards and three touchdowns last season, no longer resembles the Burger King mascot. Aside from Nelson’s absence, Rodgers was burdened by a punchless running attack and weak offensive line.
The Packers ranked in the middle of the pack in total defense last season, but Fratto (BernieFratto.com) said he expects coordinator Dom Capers to put linebackers Clay Matthews and Julius Peppers and end Datone Jones in better positions to “wreak havoc on opposing quarterbacks.”
The other quarterbacks in the NFC North — Chicago’s Jay Cutler, Detroit’s Matthew Stafford and Minnesota’s Teddy Bridgewater — still pale in comparison to Rodgers, and that’s the primary reason Green Bay is a minus-150 favorite to win the division.
“The Vikings are for real. Minnesota should be playoff bound but will finish second behind Green Bay,” said Fratto, who projects the Lions as a 6-10 team and the Bears as “no real threat” to the Packers and Vikings.
Holt said Minnesota, Seattle and Pittsburgh are showing to be “sexy picks” with the betting public on the futures board.
Green Bay was the hottest play on the board this time last year, and in the upside down world of the NFL, it’s often better to be ignored and ugly.
At 8-1 Super Bowl odds, the Packers are my pick to win the NFC.
I won’t be watching to see if Rodgers’ estranged brother wins “The Bachelorette.”
Las Vegas Review-Journal sports betting columnist Matt Youmans can be reached at myoumans@reviewjournal.com or 702-387-2907. He co-hosts “The Las Vegas Sportsline” weekdays at 2 p.m. on ESPN Radio (1100 AM). Follow on Twitter: @mattyoumans247