Sooner or later, Oklahoma will prove to be overrated
On paper, Oklahoma almost always looks good, which is why coach Bob Stoops talks tough and walks with a swagger. He expects to contend for national championships, although he almost always comes up short.
In a good news-bad news scenario, the Sooners are ranked No. 3 in the Associated Press preseason poll. The past four times Oklahoma opened inside the preseason top five, it failed to finish in the top 10. Two years ago, the Sooners were ranked No. 4, lost five games and fell out of the Top 25.
Chris Fallica, a college football researcher for ESPN, said he expects this Oklahoma team to follow the trend and disappoint, sooner or later.
“I’m not as high on Oklahoma as a lot of people,” Fallica said. “I would fade Oklahoma.”
Fallica and five other college football analysts spoke Friday on a panel at the Westgate’s “SuperContest Weekend.” There were spirited debates, and a variety of predictions made by the panelists.
Senior quarterback Baker Mayfield and junior running back Samaje Perine lead a high-powered Oklahoma offense. On paper, the Sooners appear rock solid. But Fallica, who prefers Texas Christian in the Big 12 Conference, is skeptical of Stoops.
The Sooners, who open the season Saturday as 10-point favorites at Houston, probably will stumble against a challenging schedule that also includes Ohio State, TCU, Texas, Baylor, West Virginia and Oklahoma State. Oklahoma’s regular-season win total is set at 10.
In the spirit of embracing debate, Las Vegas handicapper Ken Thomson downplayed TCU and said, “Stoops has a great chance to be in the playoff.”
Stoops made the four-team College Football Playoff last season, but the Sooners were crushed 37-17 by Clemson in the Orange Bowl in the latest of several flops for the coach formerly known as “Big Game Bob.”
Fallica (@chrisfallica on Twitter) recommended UCLA as a title long shot at 60-1 odds.
Bruins sophomore Josh Rosen could be the top quarterback in the nation.
OTHER OBSERVATIONS AND PREDICTIONS:
■ Tennessee is picked to win the Southeastern Conference East Division, yet Fallica and radio analyst Joe Lisi (Goforthe2.com) volunteered a different opinion.
“I think defense wins championships, and I really like Florida in the East,” Lisi said. “I know people are high on Tennessee, but I’m not sold on this team.”
Fallica said to bet the Gators over their win total of 7½ or 8.
Lisi made the worst prediction on the Westgate panel last year, when he said Alabama would lose five games.
The Crimson Tide won the national championship, of course. To his credit, Lisi owned up to his error.
■ Washington State, with pass-happy coach Mike Leach and junior quarterback Luke Falk, is considered a team on the rise in the Pac-12. Thomson (SportsXradio.com) predicts Falk will blossom as an NFL prospect.
“Trust me, Washington State is a team that can make a run,” Thomson said.
Las Vegas handicapper and radio host Dave Cokin (SmokinCokin.com) was in the opposite corner, saying, “I’m going to be Mr. Buzzkill. One of the most overrated teams in the country is Washington State.”
■ Iowa is a sleeper pick to win the Big Ten, according to longtime Las Vegas oddsmaker Kenny White.
The Hawkeyes have a proven winner at quarterback, senior C.J. Beathard, and a favorable schedule by hosting Wisconsin, Michigan and Nebraska. The big question mark with the Wolverines is at quarterback.
“John O’Korn is a good QB, but he’s not a great QB,” said handicapper Lee Sterling (ParamountSports.com). “The Michigan defense is going to be great.”
White (@KWhiteyVegas) predicted a bounce-back season for Nebraska, which seems logical. Lisi went out on a limb — probably too far out — with an illogical prediction for a Big Ten team that won two games last year and faces a win total of 4½ this year.
“I think this team could possibly be bowl eligible, and that’s Purdue,” Lisi said. “I think this team could surprise a lot of people. I think the Boilermakers win seven games.”
■ UNLV hosts UNR in a regular-season finale that might mean more than state bragging rights.
“That game could be for a bowl for one of those two teams,” said Thomson, who sees the Rebels winning five or six games. “I love (coach) Tony Sanchez and what he brings to the table at UNLV.”
Sanchez has a long way to go to be compared with Stoops, but they both walk with a swagger.
Las Vegas Review-Journal sports betting columnist Matt Youmans can be reached at myoumans@reviewjournal.com or 702-387-2907. He co-hosts “The Las Vegas Sportsline” weekdays at 2 p.m. on ESPN Radio (1100 AM). Follow on Twitter: @mattyoumans247