Sharp money avoids Saints
As far as coach-quarterback combinations go, only a couple in the NFL inspire belief in bettors more than Sean Payton and Drew Brees. Who imagined the New Orleans Saints would be considered cutting edge and hip?
Payton recruited Brees as a free agent in 2006, and they created a high-powered offense the Saints are riding to the Super Bowl. Along the way, they embarrassed New England’s Bill Belichick and Tom Brady.
But next up is Peyton Manning, the league’s best quarterback. If the Indianapolis Colts were coached by a beer vendor, they would have a great coach-quarterback combination. Manning alone is that good.
So if you’ve been watching ESPN, reading the newspaper, listening to talk radio and soaking in the overkill of Super Bowl analysis, you’re aware that most experts prefer the Colts as 5-point favorites and Sunday’s game should be Manning’s showcase.
Manning is making many bettors cynical about the Saints.
Even the sharpest professionals, including Las Vegas’ Billy Walters and Steve Fezzik, are lining up on Indianapolis. Fezzik said he plans to bet the Colts straight up on the money line, at a price of about minus-200, and sources say Walters has done the same in a big way.
One story circulating among gambling insiders is that Walters collaborated in some way with poker pro Phil Ivey to place a $2 million money-line bet on Indianapolis at a Strip sports book.
MGM Mirage sports book director Jay Rood did not get into specifics but said, “We took a seven-figure bet on the Colts money line.”
Sources also report Adam Meyer, a sports gambler from South Florida, has been approved for a $1 million bet at M Resort. Meyer did not confirm the amount.
“I’m going to be making a substantial wager,” Meyer said. “I’ve only done one-third of the amount so far on the Colts on the money line.”
Be aware that many of the Colts money-line bettors are playing it both ways by maneuvering to also take the Saints and the points.
Ken White, a veteran oddsmaker for Las Vegas Sports Consultants, said he made the line minus-61/2 and the total 61, so he sees small edges to Indianapolis and over the total, which is now about 57.
White just spent a week in Miami, and he said league insiders talked about how the Saints were a bundle of nerves in their 31-28 overtime victory over the Minnesota Vikings in the NFC Championship Game. Brees appeared overly cautious with some throws, and his offense went three-and-out seven times.
“If the Saints were nervous in that spotlight,” White said, “what’s going to happen to them this Sunday?”
White said he leans to the Colts because of “experience.” But he’s also concerned about the right ankle injury to defensive end Dwight Freeney, a bulldozer as a pass rusher.
“Freeney is an important part of that team,” White said. “If he comes back and they say he’s going to play 85 percent of the plays, I feel the line will go back up to 6. But without Freeney, I’m making it 41/2.”
The 6-foot Brees can stand toe to toe with the 6-foot-5-inch Manning in a passing numbers game.
Brees posted an NFL-high rating of 109.6 in the regular season, compared with Manning’s 99.9 rating. Brees had 34 touchdown passes and 11 interceptions, compared with Manning’s 33 and 16. Since the 2006 season, Brees and Manning each have 122 touchdown passes. In his past eight games, including the playoffs, Brees has passed for 21 touchdowns with two interceptions.
The critics are picking on the weaknesses of the New Orleans defense, and Manning surely will, too. But it’s not a no-win situation for the Saints. A no-win dilemma is a height contest between Tom Cruise, Al Pacino and Ryan Seacrest.
Knocking off Manning is a tall order — and I have the Colts winning, too — but Brees and Payton give the Saints a shot.
Despite the crush of Colts bettors swarming Las Vegas books, White said, “There’s going to be a lot of Saints money, as well.”
There are hundreds of ways to bet the Super Bowl, including propositions. Two weeks ago, “in-progress” wagering was a hit at books such as the Las Vegas Hilton, M Resort and Lucky’s. At each commercial break, the point spread for the game is adjusted and posted for continual wagering.
“It’s the wave of the future,” said Jimmy Vaccaro, director of operations for Lucky’s books, based at the Plaza downtown. “People just like to keep betting.”
And many of them will be betting big on Manning.
Contact sports betting columnist Matt Youmans at myoumans@reviewjournal.com or 702-387-2907.