Resilient Wisconsin should easily cover double-digit number against Penn State

Wilson’s play has been great. The free-agent transfer from North Carolina State has lit up the Big Ten Conference just as I expected when training camps opened in August. But he’s not a free safety, and two plays are separating Wilson and the Badgers from what could have been a Heisman Trophy and a perfect season.

In eight days, Wisconsin will face Michigan State in the Big Ten title game, and the Badgers will get revenge. It might ease their pain, but it won’t erase the disaster in October.

No team knows tough times quite like Penn State, however. The ugliest of scandals forced out coach Joe Paterno and created a monster distraction the team has handled surprisingly well.

That said, look for Wisconsin, a 14½-point home favorite, to hand the Nittany Lions a lopsided beating Saturday when the teams collide for the chance to play in Indianapolis next week.

"I don’t want to lay points like that, but I think Wisconsin is sitting on a huge game," SportsMemo.com handicapper Erin Rynning said. "I think this game could really get away from Penn State."

I rarely recommend double-digit favorites, but this one is probably worth a shot. Rynning bet the Badgers at minus-14, and buying the hook as insurance is not a bad idea.

On Oct. 22 in East Lansing, Mich., the Spartans stunned Wisconsin 37-31 on a Hail Mary as time expired. A week later, the Badgers suffered another last-minute shocker when Ohio State freshman Braxton Miller, who throws prayers for passes, burned the secondary on a deep ball in the Buckeyes’ 33-29 victory.

It’s tough to recall another team getting beat like that in back-to-back weeks. But college players are resilient, and the Badgers (9-2) have regrouped to win their past three games.

The Nittany Lions are typically strong defensively, which is why they are 9-2. But they are 3-7-1 against the spread because their offensive attack amounts to 1 yard and a cloud of dust.

Penn State produced 16 points against Indiana, 14 against Nebraska, 13 against Iowa and 10 against Illinois. Last week, the Nittany Lions busted out the Wildcat offense and ran up 20 first-half points at Ohio State on the way to a 20-14 victory. Neither team scored in the second half to keep it under the total of 38.

"The Buckeyes were able to adjust at halftime and shut them down," Rynning said.

Compare the offenses. Wisconsin is Led Zeppelin and Penn State is Lady Antebellum.

The Badgers have been held below 30 points just twice this season. Montee Ball has rushed for 1,466 yards and scored a Big Ten-record 30 total touchdowns. Wilson leads the nation in pass efficiency (199.3) and is on pace to break the NCAA record. He has 26 touchdowns and three interceptions, numbers only the Green Bay Packers’ Aaron Rodgers can top.

The lone team in the nation to rank in the top 10 in scoring offense and scoring defense, Wisconsin should wipe out a Penn State team that could be emotionally drained.

In six home games, the Badgers have won by margins of 52, 49, 45, 35, 34 and 31 points for an average of 41 points per game. That includes a 48-17 embarrassment of Nebraska. It won’t get that ugly for Penn State, but a three-touchdown win seems realistic.

Wisconsin opened with a 51-17 victory over UNLV in what might have been the Rebels’ strongest showing on the road this season. Losing by seven at New Mexico was far worse.

"As bad as the Rebels look on the road, and it’s as bad as any team in the country, this team has played much better at home," said handicapper Bruce Marshall of The Gold Sheet and VegasInsider.com. "It’s a different team at home, and the defense is not as bad."

Not counting the Southern Utah fiasco, UNLV is 8-1 ATS in its past nine games at Sam Boyd Stadium. Marshall is siding with the Rebels as 15½-point underdogs against San Diego State.

"This team has underperformed, so I don’t trust the Aztecs coming here laying over two touchdowns," Marshall said.

Another underperforming team has been Hawaii, which is dealing with allegations that some players were involved in a point-shaving scheme. The Warriors closed as 18-point favorites in a 40-20 loss at UNLV on Sept. 17. That result was not as suspicious as it may appear, and I’ll resist jumping to conclusions.

"I don’t dismiss anything," Marshall said, "but I’m not accepting it yet, either."

■ CLOSING NUMBERS — Here’s hoping Arkansas upsets No. 1 Louisiana State today, throwing the Bowl Championship Scam into further chaos, but I’m not betting the game. At 32-30-2 for the season, here are six plays for Saturday (home team in CAPS):

NORTHWESTERN (+6½) over Michigan State; GEORGIA TECH (+6) over Georgia; AUBURN (+21) over Alabama; WISCONSIN (-14½) over Penn State; FLORIDA (+2½) over Florida State; UNLV (+15½) over San Diego State.

Contact sports betting columnist Matt Youmans at myoumans@reviewjournal.com or 702-387-2907. He co-hosts the "Las Vegas Sportsline" weeknights at midnight on KDWN-AM (720) and thelasvegassportsline.com.