Public wise to buy into Kelly, Eagles
Egotistical and innovative, Chip Kelly does things his way. He’s an outside-the-box thinker, which means a lot of people initially disagree with the way he does things.
After recording 10 wins in each of his first two seasons as coach, Kelly used the offseason to give the Philadelphia Eagles a makeover. A lot of people thought he was crazy.
He sent quarterback Nick Foles, running back LeSean McCoy and wide receiver Jeremy Maclin on flights out of town. All were highly productive players in the Eagles’ wide-open offense. Kelly attempted to pull off a huge deal for the No. 2 pick in the NFL Draft because he wanted his former quarterback at Oregon, Marcus Mariota, but that fell through.
As it turns out, Kelly is not crazy. The Eagles emerged from the preseason with the league’s highest-scoring offense (33.3 points per game) and turned into a hot team with the betting public. It’s not always good to be a public team, but the bottom line is people are now buying into the way Kelly is doing things.
His new quarterback, Sam Bradford, appears rejuvenated and up to the task, at least until he gets injured. McCoy has been replaced by DeMarco Murray, the league’s leading rusher with 1,845 yards last season, and Ryan Mathews. Kelly also made definite personnel upgrades on defense by signing cornerback Byron Maxwell from Seattle and acquiring linebacker Kiko Alonso in the McCoy trade with Buffalo.
I’m buying Philadelphia as the favorite to win the NFC East, partly because Kelly stripped Murray from the Dallas Cowboys, who are about to take a step back. Kelly has the sharpest offensive mind in the NFL today.
On Monday night, the Eagles storm into Atlanta, where Dan Quinn debuts as coach and replaces Mike Smith, who was arguably the worst game manager in the league. Quinn was the defensive coordinator in Seattle, but when he moved, he did not bring the Seahawks’ stars with him.
The Falcons ranked 32nd in total defense last season, allowing 398 yards per game, so Quinn has work to do. His Seattle defense held Kelly’s offense to a season-low 14 points in December, but again, these are different teams.
What will look familiar about Atlanta is its offense. Matt Ryan is always dangerous with Julio Jones and Roddy White running routes. It should be a shootout, and the total of 56 is the highest on the board this week. I’ll go with Philadelphia to set the pace and cover as a 3-point favorite in the opener of Monday’s double feature.
For the record, here are my ATS results from this column the past three regular seasons: 56-28-1 in 2012; 45-36-4 in 2013; 49-34-2 in 2014. That adds up to 150-98-7 (.605) for the past 255 plays.
Four more plays for Week 1 (home team in CAPS):
JETS (-3) over Browns: New coach Todd Bowles will build an elite Jets defense. He has two great tools to work with in corners Darrelle Revis and Antonio Cromartie. Ryan Fitzpatrick is a concern at quarterback, yet the Jets have more talent on offense than most think. I rate Cleveland as one of the league’s five worst teams. This line is moving to 3½, and I’ll call for the Jets to win by double digits.
JAGUARS (+3) over Panthers: It never feels good to back Jacksonville, so I rarely do. It’s also discouraging that tight end Julius Thomas is injured and out. Still, second-year quarterback Blake Bortles is showing signs of getting it, and the Jaguars did improve in the offseason. Carolina will regress after winning the NFC South with a 7-8-1 record. Cam Newton must carry an offense lacking playmakers.
CARDINALS (-2½) over Saints: After a 7-9 finish and a winless preseason, New Orleans is primed to bounce back. That’s a popular theory, but I disagree. In the past two years, the Saints have lost offensive stars Darren Sproles and Jimmy Graham, plus running back C.J. Spiller will miss this game. Oddsmakers see Arizona as a weak favorite — a home team laying less than a field goal is often a trap — but this looks like a case of New Orleans being overrated.
Giants (+6) over COWBOYS: Dallas, 4-4 straight up at home last season, has been a poor home favorite in recent years. Both defenses have major problems, and the Giants could get shredded by Tony Romo. In a high-scoring game, Eli Manning has enough weapons to hang around, and he has been known to light up the Cowboys.
Last season: 49-34-2 against the spread
— Las Vegas Review-Journal sports betting columnist Matt Youmans can be reached at myoumans@reviewjournal.com or 702-387-2907. He co-hosts “The Las Vegas Sportsline” weekdays at 2 p.m. on ESPN Radio (1100 AM). Follow: @mattyoumans247.