Public sides help bettors get payback
Anything is possible, but it seemed highly improbable that Tom Brady would allow the New England Patriots to lose three in a row, even when he was standing in a two-touchdown hole.
Sometimes when you win a wager, you have to work hard for the money. Other times, it comes easily, and never did I sweat my bet against the New York Jets.
Road favorites can ruin a handicapper, but on this Sunday, it was hip to be square. Finally, after three weeks of getting beat to a pulp, the betting public punched back and bloodied the bookmaker’s lip a little bit.
The Patriots and San Francisco 49ers, two of the most obvious square plays on the board, led the assault.
"We got all Patriots money," MGM Resorts sports book director Jay Rood said. "The ticket count was 10 to 1. That was the most lopsided game of the day for us."
Initially, it was the Buffalo Bills who were on the right side of a lopsided game, leading 21-7 and driving for more. I reflected on a conversation with a guy I had never met before we crossed paths Friday at the M Resort.
"I’m hearing a syndicate is going to make a big move on the Bills," he said.
One thing I try to practice, after hanging around Las Vegas sports books for several years, is to tune out the noise. You will hear all sorts of opinions and supposed inside information on games from random sources throughout the week. Some of it is worth listening to, some of it is worthless.
So I tuned out the noise about the Bills because I believed the Patriots were the play. Same with the 49ers.
Jim Kruger, a handicapper for VegasSportsAuthority.com, bet the 49ers and said, "It really is unique to live in Las Vegas if you bet on sports. There are a ton of radio shows, contests and newspaper articles giving you the inside slant."
I contribute to the noise through some radio shows and newspaper articles, and while I never want to lead bettors in the wrong direction, sometimes I’m right and sometimes I’m wrong. The moral of that short story is stick with what you believe is right, even if it’s a square play on a road favorite.
"Sometimes the obvious choice is the correct choice," Kruger said. And the Patriots and 49ers were obvious choices on the Week 4 card.
Brady dug out of a deep hole, passing for 340 yards and three touchdowns and directing six straight touchdown drives in New England’s 52-28 blowout of the 4-point underdog Bills.
The 4-point underdog Jets never had a chance. Their run defense is soft, their run offense stinks, Mark Sanchez can’t pass and the Tim Tebow gimmick isn’t fooling anyone. All of that was obvious before Sunday’s game, and it was further exposed in San Francisco’s 34-0 victory.
"All the sides the public hooked up in parlays are coming in," Rood said. "We’re taking it on the chin."
Houston was another popular public play, but I stay away from double-digit favorites. The Texans, laying 13, proved to be easy money in a 38-14 victory over Tennessee.
I was wrong about Green Bay, which blew a 14-point lead and was lucky to beat winless New Orleans, 28-27. I respect the underdogs, yet disrespected the Saints a little too much and got squared up for a loser on the Packers as 7½-point favorites.
Denver and San Diego also won with ease, making it five favorites to win and cover for the week. That’s not many, but the favorites to cash were all public sides, so the bettors got a small measure of payback after three lopsided weeks for the books.
"It’s one of those weekends. We’ve got to push a little back across the table," Rood said. "We can’t complain. At some point, it was going to turn on us a little bit."
Philadelphia’s 19-17 victory over the New York Giants in the nightcap was a split decision. There was plenty of action on both sides, and the host Eagles closed as 2 to 2½-point favorites and around minus-140 on the money line.
It’s not always hip to be square. Underdogs are 38-23-1, counting the Giants as an underdog cover, with one game remaining in the season’s fourth week.
Always respect Eli Manning and the Giants as road ‘dogs. Manning lost, but his was the right side in a game determined by debatable penalty flags in the final minute.
Some things never change in the NFL. The referees, even the regulars, play a big role in your bet, and betting against Brady off back-to-back losses is an obvious mistake.
Contact sports betting columnist Matt Youmans at myoumans@reviewjournal.com or 702-387-2907. He co-hosts "The Las Vegas Sportsline" weekdays at 2 p.m. on ESPN Radio (1100 AM, 98.9 FM). Follow him on Twitter: @mattyoumans247.
