Patriots, Packers leading path to Super Bowl
Remember the first week of the NFL season? It seems like so long ago. Tom Brady faded in the Miami heat, and the New England Patriots raised the curtain on their season with a weak opening act.
Three days earlier, Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers were pummeled in Seattle, where the defending champions appeared unstoppable.
The Dallas Cowboys were widely considered terrible. Ryan Fitzpatrick was a starting quarterback. Bill Cosby was known as a comic and a stand-up guy.
All of that is comical now except for the Cosby story. In the NFL, what happens in September, stays in September. It’s Thanksgiving week, when the season comes into focus and we can separate the true contenders from the turkeys. So, which teams would you rank one-two in the league?
“I’ve got the Patriots and the Packers,” said Jimmy Vaccaro, oddsmaker at the South Point sports book. “The Patriots are awful (bleeping) good.”
Who was saying that at the end of September? Bleeping nobody. The Patriots were 2-2 and off a 27-point loss. The Packers were 2-2 and not far removed from a pathetic loss at Detroit. Now, Brady and Rodgers lead teams ranked, without a doubt, in the league’s top two.
A dog is a man’s best friend. In Las Vegas, the Patriots, whether ’dogs or favorites, are a betting man’s best companion, and they delivered another paycheck to the public Sunday.
Brady passed for 349 yards and two touchdowns, repeatedly burning a powerful rush with quick throws, as New England coasted as a 7-point favorite in a 34-9 victory over the Lions, who were exposed as turkeys.
When a friend sent an early-morning text message asking for a best bet, I recommended the Patriots. It was Brady against Matthew Stafford, and that’s an easy call. NFL handicapping is not always so hard.
Suspicions of Stafford, who completed 18 of 46 passes, being a phony and the Lions being lucky were confirmed. Remember when Detroit was 3-1 at the end of September?
The Cowboys (8-3) are true contenders, something we figured out in October. On a day when seven of 12 underdogs cashed, Dallas failed to deliver for the public in a 31-28 victory over the New York Giants in the nightcap.
It was a good spot for the Giants, and they played the spoiler role, taking a 21-10 halftime lead. The Cowboys closed as 5-point favorites at most books, up from the opening line of 3½.
“We needed the Giants,” Vaccaro said. “We were pushed to 6. It wasn’t a phony move. There was plenty of money for the Cowboys at 5 and 5½.”
In the end, Tony Romo drove Dallas on the winning drive, capped by a 13-yard dart to Dez Bryant with 1:01 remaining, and Eli Manning came up a couple of inches short.
Cincinnati and Cleveland pulled off the only outright upsets. The Browns did it in dramatic style, beating Atlanta 26-24 on Billy Cundiff’s 37-yard field goal as time expired. Falcons coach Mike Smith (soon to be their former coach) mismanaged the clock (no surprise) and the score went over the total of 48 on the final play.
Miami, Minnesota, St. Louis and Washington also covered in the underdog role with varying degrees of difficulty.
The Dolphins, 7-point ’dogs, took a 28-17 lead into the fourth quarter at Denver, where Peyton Manning proceeded to put up the next 22 points. Miami cut its deficit to 39-36 with 1:34 to go, but the Broncos had a shot to cover when C.J. Anderson broke loose for a 26-yard run to the 16-yard line before going to the ground and running out the clock.
“How about if Miami would not have covered? That would have been insane,” Vaccaro said. “The smarts got us with the Dolphins, and same thing with the Vikings game.”
The Vikings, 7½-point ’dogs, needed Teddy Bridgewater’s 5-yard touchdown pass with 3:23 to go to cover in a 24-21 loss to the Packers, who had covered six of their previous seven games.
Chicago, Indianapolis, Philadelphia and Seattle took care of business as favorites, along with New England, which has won seven straight and covered six of seven.
“It was just a normal Sunday. It was good. We muddled through the day,” Vaccaro said. “As busy as Thanksgiving is, I think we’ll be a little bit busier. This is a good week coming up.”
After a rare Monday doubleheader, the turkey day tripleheader serves up Bears-Lions, Eagles-Cowboys and Seahawks-49ers.
Nothing will be normal about next Sunday, when the Patriots pay a visit to the Packers. Rodgers opened as a 3½-point favorite over Brady, and that’s not an easy call.
September is too soon to talk about potential Super Bowl previews, but this is late November, and Patriots-Packers is as good as it gets.
Las Vegas Review-Journal sports betting columnist Matt Youmans can be reached at myoumans@reviewjournal.com or 702-387-2907. He co-hosts “The Las Vegas Sportsline” weekdays at 2 p.m. on ESPN Radio (1100 AM). Follow him on Twitter: @mattyoumans247.